Who do you think will win the election?

[Durandal7]

Who do you think will win the election? "Think" being the operative word, this is not who you want to win.

Who will win and why?

I'm thinking Bush will win. The debates were Kerry's big chance and while he did well, he did not hit a "home-run." The Kerry campaign was very badly run the entire summer though they started to shape up last month, I'm not sure if that will be enough to help them out. Bush also has the edge that comes with incumbency.

[zimv20]

i think kerry is going to win the popular vote by a non-trivial margin. i've no idea how all the lawsuits will play out.

[macfreek57]

i think without incumbancy and the war (sweet and sour), he would have been gone a while ago, but i think he'll take the slight lead in the end.
i think it's unrealistic to say that anything having to do with the election four years ago will happen again as that was a fairly isolated incident and not likely to be repeated. people are trying to make a big deal out of that possibly happening this time, but i say give me a percentage of times it's happend in the past. of course there was the nixon/kennedy thing, but i can't think of another presidential election. wouldn't that be quite a coincidence if it happened twice in a row?
i think those who would like to make it so would have a pretty good case for a conspiracy if it did happen again.

[solvs]

Up until awhile ago, I would have said Bush was going to win. Despite my very strong desire for that not being the outcome, even if I had to vote for Kerry to make him lose. :p After seeing recent polls though I'm not so sure. Yeah, most polls say GW is still winning by a bit. But figuring they are not polling the cell phone only people (mostly young people), Dem voters registration is up pretty high this year (higher than before, and higher than Repubs), polls showing Kerry winning the electoral college, and a lot of people dislike Bush enough to vote against party or not vote at all... I actually think it's closer than we know. Plus the fact that the Nickelodean poll showed Kerry winning with 57% of the vote. Laugh all you want, they've been right every time, and most kids do vote what their parents do.

Kerry may not win, but he is close enough to give some of us hope. God I hope he doesn't do a crappy job. Not that he could be much worse than Bush, of course. ;)

[Thomas Veil]

Bush. Because I guess I am at heart a pessimist.

Though I disagree that there won't be another controversy.

[Xtremehkr]

I am confused about this whole "war" deal. Apart from occupying Iraq, Bush has said that he is not worried about Osama. And we don't have troops doing anything anywhere else.

Are we still at war in Iraq? Or occupying them?

The "war" on drugs has been going on since the 80s. As has the "war" on crime. The "war" on terrorism seems to be as ill defined as the other two.

Does terrorism happen without reason or a cause? some would believe that the terrorists indeed "hate freedom" and want to kill Americans simply for that reason. Yeah, I don't really buy that.

Considering the idea that terrorism has a root cause, simply going after terrorists and not the problem does not seem like it is going to solve anything.

I don't buy into the whole "wartime President" claim. Bush is just another elitest serving the haves and the have mores, but with really good use of language and lots of spin.

What really would change if Bush were replaced? I would rather have someone who has actually seen combat in office during a time of "war."

[takao]

pessimistic as well: Bush will win but it's gonna get dirty close ...

but perhaps another term of Bush might not be bad for the USA overall (especially for the democrats, whole rethinking of election system perhaps...)

[blackfox]

For me it is too close to call.

At this point I think Bush and the GOP could convince people that the Easter Bunny is a Communist Lesbian Terrorist.

All other considerations are secondary.

Kerry has the logic vote. Whether that proves enough, I don't know.

Prediction:
If young kids and newly-mobilized voters get off their ass and vote/can vote - Kerry win

If not, Bush.

Electoral Calculus notwithstanding...

[LeeTom]

wow... i guess you guys aren't reading what i'm reading...
kerry is going to win this pretty strong. my personal guess is 9% of the popular vote....

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Lee Tom

[Chappers]

Bush will win.
I've said this from day one, but I hope that I'm wrong.

[zelmo]

Bush is going to win, if only because not being Bush isn't a strong enough reason for many people to vote for Kerry.

Besides, Hillary can't win in '08 if Kerry is the incumbant :D

[Sayhey]

Kerry will win if there is not a major shock to the country (October Surprise) between now and election day. It looks to me that Kerry is doing well in all the states that Gore won in 2000 plus he will likely take New Hampshire and Ohio - with Florida, Nevada, and Colorado also likely (in that order) to tip to Kerry. All of that spells a win for Kerry. The important numbers to look at are Bush's number in battleground states. If he isn't over 50% he is in trouble - those who are still undecided tend to break to the challenger.

[Backtothemac]

Bush will win the popular vote, and the electorial college.

[iGav]

Bush will win.

But I have no idea why he will.

[toontra]

I am a pessimist by nature. I think Bush will win, but would be ecstatic to be proved wrong on this one!

[Don't panic]

But I have no idea why he will.

possibly because most of his supporters live somewhere in La-La-Land

and before you flame me, yes, there is evidence for this:
http://www.pipa.org/OnlineReports/Pres_Election_04/Report10_21_04.pdf

if you have any other explanation of why most of bush supporters still think that:
- Saddam had stockpiled WMD and/or major programs to build them (he didn't)
- Saddam was involved in 9/11 and directly supported Al Qeida (he didn't)
- The 9/11 and Duelfer report support this view (they don't)
- They think the rest of the world supports bush policies (i know, this one is hard to believe)
i would like to hear them.

as the old saying goes
"no one is more deaf than he who does not want to hear"

On topic, I think that, barred the announcement of the death/capture of UBL, kerry will squeeze by. I really think that a lot of the undecided will not be able to carry themself to endure four more years of this

[Lyle]

I want Bush to win and also think that he will, but by a small margin.

I'm more worried about the aftermath; or as zimv20 put, how all the lawsuits will play out. Putting aside the swinging chads and what not for a moment, I think a lot of people were caught off guard in 2000 by the difference between the popular vote and the electoral college vote (and the fact that it's the latter that determines the winner).

I'm still not sure that people understand the difference. Suppose that Kerry does win the popular vote but Bush wins more electoral college votes this time around. Or swap the names around, if it helps you get through this question. And suppose, hypothetically, that the individual states' results were uncontested. Would "we the people" accept the newly-elected president, or we go through another four years of "Bush stole the election" (or "Kerry stole the election")?

[zimv20]

my personal guess is 9% of the popular vote....

i'm beginning to think you're onto something here.

[Backtothemac]

Let me try again, because it was deleted.
Bush will win the popular vote, and the electoral vote.

[zimv20]

i found this (http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/000580.php) item interesting, "Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November".

some of them are pretty dodgy, but some are compelling.

imo, this will come down to voter turnout. check out results from a college student poll (http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041021/pl_nm/campaign_youth_dc_3).

researchers at Harvard's Institute of Politics found that 52 percent of all students want the Massachusetts senator elected president, 39 percent support Bush, and 8 percent are undecided.

In 14 hotly contested swing states, the poll shows Kerry leading Bush by 17 points among students.


The poll also found 84 percent of college students plan to cast a ballot, as both candidates woo young voters.

[...]

Even as researchers predicted a surge in turnout among college students, they cautioned that many who say they will vote will not show up on Election Day. Still, they expect over half of all college voters to go to the ballot box, up from 42 percent who voted four years ago.


edit:

fwiw, it's only in the past 10 days or so that i started thinking kerry actually had a shot. i suppose it's also possible that, a couple days from now, i'll think he's got no chance.

i voted last week (absentee) and i'm feeling very good about that.

[zimv20]

Let me try again, because it was deleted.
Bush will win the popular vote, and the electoral vote.
i can see your first one.

[yellow]

I'm pretty sure that Darth Vader will win.
The Empire will continue to rule and grind the Rebels under it's heel.

Oh wait.. that's in a galaxy far, far away..

[Dont Hurt Me]

I think Kerry will win, how can you run on fear ,fear and more fear??? this is George"s campaign. Its not accomplishments or all the great things he has done for the American People. Its fear the terrorist,fear the spin iam telling you about Kerry, Fear everything and ill make it better. Sorry i cant elect a man who runs on fear. How many times have we had all those color codes fear tactics only not to have anything happen. A great man said there is nothing to fear but fear itself. Guess Bush & Cheney never heard that one. Meanwhile George ignores the Mexican line??? I guess those terrorists wont come in via Mexico hey George??? Kerry & Edwards have a much more positive vision for the country and the world but will take some time to fix the hole the president has got into. Bush has pissed off Jews, Muslims,Blacks, and a lot of everyday folks. I predict a record turnout by Democrats to push him and his policies into retirement. :) Kerry by 5% or more.

[Thomas Veil]

I'm pretty sure that Darth Vader will win.
The Empire will continue to rule and grind the Rebels under it's heel.

Oh wait.. that's in a galaxy far, far away..
No it's not. :(


I think Kerry will win, how can you run on fear ,fear and more fear???
Hey...it worked for the guy in my sig.

[Backtothemac]

i can see your first one.
Really? I cannot. Wierd, really wierd.

[zimv20]

Really? I cannot. Wierd, really wierd.
that is weird. i see it as post #13 at 8:40 am.

[emw]

I think Kerry will win. I don't have any real numbers to support it, other than the Nickelodeon poll, but I feel that there are enough people out there who are having to pony up additional dollars for their health care insurance right about now, if they have any that is, that there will be a swing of support for Kerry.

Doesn't matter if Kerry has a better plan. Most people don't read or care. But they may associate their pain with Bush.

We can only hope.

[SiliconAddict]

:( Bush in another repeat of Florida but probably in several states this time since e-voting is going to be a ****** mess. After the 2nd I'm going to be seriously looking at my options. Canada is only a few hours drive away from MN. I may try and get dual citizenship. I don't know. All I do know is I fear for the future of this country with the idiot in power.

[Maclarny]

Kerry will win.

This isn't optimism talking, I'm being realistic.

With a net loss of over 800,000 jobs, the first administration to have such a loss in over 70 years, George Bush cannot win on the economy.

Over 120 billion spent, and more than 1000 dead in a futile struggle in Iraq George Bush cannot win with four more years of those statistics.

A 450 Billion dollar deficit with a national debt in excess of 7.3 trillion (divides out to around $14,000 per man, woman, and child in America) and no proposed way of paying for it George Bush cannot win on fiscal responsibilty.

After alienating our allies in the War on Terror, vouching instead for a unilateral crusade against evil, George Bush cannot prosecute the War on Terror like John Kerry can and will.

45 million Americans without healthcare, 4.7 million children under the age of 6 living in poverty, the list goes on...

It is in times of crisis when change is most needed and we cannot take four more years of George W. Bush.

The majority of Americans aren't stupid...

[skunk]

The majority of Americans aren't stupid...
Time will tell...

[IJ Reilly]

Keeping in mind that a majority of Americans didn't vote for him the first time...

[Maclarny]

Keeping in mind that a majority of Americans didn't vote for him the first time...

The pessimism is almost tangible in here :cool:

[jefhatfield]

...then i think bush would win by a narrow popular vote and a more comfortable electoral college victory...i suspect kerry may not even get 200 electoral votes

rasmussenreports.com puts bush at 48 percent and kerry at 47

but a lot can still happen so it's too close to call right now...but if one candidate had a solid ten percent lead in all the major polls, then i could be sure of their victory when tuesday, november 2nd comes along

btw...i am voting for kerry and i am pretty confident my state, california, will go for kerry...i am sure of new york for kerry and texas for bush, but that's as far as i am willing to predict right now

i think kerry may win a battleground midwestern state or two experts say will go to bush and that bush may win a new england state which experts thought belonged to kerry

i don't think the electoral map will be cut out the exact same way it was in 2000 and there have been shifts in different states towards the political parties...if bush wins this time, i think he will go the next four years with less support than he did in 2000

if kerry wins, he will find a hostile congress

the last two presidents in recent history that i think who had strong national support by the people and by congress were clinton and reagan...sadly, i think that we will live in a divided nation for the next several years