Analysts Look Toward $1000 Share Price, $1 Trillion Market Cap for Apple

andyjam · Apr 3, 2012

And today, Microsoft is worth $250bn. Nobody could have possibly foreseen the loss of 75% of their market cap (based on inflation adjusted numbers) in the late-1990's, but surely enough...

Apple cannot simply keen on growing forever and ever. My predication is that there will be a big crash some time over the next few years. Probably 2015-16, especially if they reach $1000 per share by 2014.

There is no such thing as the perfect company, or the perfect stock. Investors need to realise this, because AAPL is looking pretty perfect at the moment and that's just going to fuel overconfidence.

Xscapes · Apr 3, 2012

hirshnoc said:
Wirelessly posted

Berkshire Hathaway stock shares go for like $121,000 a share. Market cap isn't this big though. Apple wouldn't be breaking any records hitting $1K. Maybe for the NASDAQ, but not in history.

Will break the $1 Trillion Market Cap record. I don't think there any company ever reach $1 trill.

deannnnn · Apr 3, 2012

Yes I approve of this. Thanks for asking.

SirChadwick · Apr 3, 2012

I remember the irrational exuberance in the late 90's for technology investments. Money was being thrown at ideas and technology potential without regard. Ideas can be cheap to create and replace. It is not outside the realm of possibility for an Apple bubble pop at a later date.

thai4life · Apr 3, 2012

Wirelessly posted

well judging by the news of late --- or rather lack, thereof -- it certainly won't be moving not even a few cents for the next few months, not until the appearance of a new iPhone. And depending of the degree to which they update it, their stock might just take a dip in the opposite direction!

Those that have been with the iphone since day 1 caught on to Apple's tactics right around the release of the 3GS. Our eyes were WIDE OPEN by the time they released the 4S fiasco. And I would venture to guess a sizeable numbers of owners didnt upgrade primarily for that very reason, myself included. Now if we could just get the general public to snap outta this trance that Apple has induced and make it known that anything less than a total make-over --- to include most importantly a huge increase in screen size --- and significant software update is UNACCEPTABLE I think we could send a loud n clear message.

Now will that actually happen? Of course not. But we hardcore iPhone owners can always dream can't we?

iMikeT · Apr 3, 2012

Buy! Buy! Buy!!!!!

GFLPraxis · Apr 3, 2012

Gooberton said:
If a stock gets to 1000 a share?? There's stocks for 100,000 + for 1 share

Case in point.

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andyjam said:
And today, Microsoft is worth $250bn. Nobody could have possibly foreseen the loss of 75% of their market cap (based on inflation adjusted numbers) in the late-1990's, but surely enough...

Apple cannot simply keen on growing forever and ever. My predication is that there will be a big crash some time over the next few years. Probably 2015-16, especially if they reach $1000 per share by 2014.

There is no such thing as the perfect company, or the perfect stock. Investors need to realise this, because AAPL is looking pretty perfect at the moment and that's just going to fuel overconfidence.

In the mean time...LEAP options here we come.

liavman · Apr 3, 2012

Furthermore, we believe factoring in an Apple Television could add more than $4 in EPS

That will require a sales of around 20 Million TV in 2015. Even then it adds only $50 to the stock price. From the $950 range, that is just a 5% change in price.

20 Million TVs per year for a 5% extra return on Apple stock price. That is what needs to be understood from what Gene Munster says. At those price levels, a $50 a swing in price can happen due to macro economic conditions. So the entire Apple TV business is noise caught up in such random market oscillations.

In general terms, I can see Apple stock price going up to 1000 etc as Gene says. I have a very conversative market evaluation model that predicts that in the second half of this decade, Apple will be on the right hand side of the growth bell curve ( slowing growth phase ) which will contract the P/E towards 12 which means the price will settle back down to around $800.00. So beyond $800.00 the risk/reward ratio turns against Apple.

guzhogi · Apr 3, 2012

I agree with many of you; I'm happy for Apple, but wonder how Apple will be able to continue its upward trend. Maybe if Apple releases its rumored TV. However, I see Apple' stock either leveling off or going down if Apple continues to just do Macs, iOS & current software. As some people have said, aw of large numbers. But what do I know? I'm no economics expert.

Also wish I had gotten in in 1997 or so when the stock was at what? $3/share?

The Monkey · Apr 3, 2012

"...Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world and we see no end in sight to this trend"

Of course, because everything financial just goes up up up forever! (See internet stocks; see also housing prices.)

If anything, this post is a death knell.

gglockner · Apr 3, 2012

hirshnoc said:
Wirelessly posted

Berkshire Hathaway stock shares go for like $121,000 a share. Market cap isn't this big though. Apple wouldn't be breaking any records hitting $1K. Maybe for the NASDAQ, but not in history.

I was thinking the same thing the other day -- at what point is a share of AAPL worth more than a share of BRK.A.

foobarbaz · Apr 3, 2012

basesloaded190 said:
This stock is going to be traded mainly by large firms soon as the average Joe won't be able to purchase stock and those prices.

If Joe can't afford a 1000$ share, he has no business investing in (or worse trading) individual shares. He should invest in stock funds, instead.

andyjam said:
Apple cannot simply keen on growing forever and ever.

Of course not. That obvious fact doesn't mean Apple can't grow for another 1, 10 or even 100 years.

People have been using that argument for years (leading to significant P/E compression), yet Apple is still amazingly growing faster than many, many small companies (30%++). And now it's cheaper than most (per earnings). Apple can (and likely will) still be a great investment.

Of course, there is no guarantees for this stock. But there's no such thing for any other stock, either. But if the last 5 years have shown me anything, it's never to bet against AAPL.

davids8477 · Apr 3, 2012

SirChadwick said:
I remember the irrational exuberance in the late 90's for technology investments. Money was being thrown at ideas and technology potential without regard. Ideas can be cheap to create and replace. It is not outside the realm of possibility for an Apple bubble pop at a later date.

True - but most of those were selling vapor-ware this company has real products that are in high demand. If they keep innovating they will get there - but thats the challenge.

futbalguy · Apr 3, 2012

thai4life said:
Wirelessly posted

well judging by the news of late --- or rather lack, thereof -- it certainly won't be moving not even a few cents for the next few months, not until the appearance of a new iPhone. And depending of the degree to which they update it, their stock might just take a dip in the opposite direction!

Those that have been with the iphone since day 1 caught on to Apple's tactics right around the release of the 3GS. Our eyes were WIDE OPEN by the time they released the 4S fiasco. And I would venture to guess a sizeable numbers of owners didnt upgrade primarily for that very reason, myself included. Now if we could just get the general public to snap outta this trance that Apple has induced and make it known that anything less than a total make-over --- to include most importantly a huge increase in screen size --- and significant software update is UNACCEPTABLE I think we could send a loud n clear message.

Now will that actually happen? Of course not. But we hardcore iPhone owners can always dream can't we?

Apple doesnt have to release news or new products for the stock price to move. It moves up and down every day based on how analysts think their future prospects are changing.

And your demands for changes to the phone are just your opinion which was influenced by a bunch of crazy rumors around design changes. They will update the design when they think its necessary and if they dont its not "UNNACCEPTABLE". You just dont upgrade or get a different phone. They arent going to update the look every year and the current look seems pretty popular even if you (and me) are tired of it by now.

NewbieCanada · Apr 3, 2012

The Monkey said:
"...Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world and we see no end in sight to this trend"

Of course, because everything financial just goes up up up forever! (See internet stocks; see also housing prices.)

If anything, this post is a death knell.

Long term, taking a broad view, everything does go up forever. There are bumps in markets, and some companies fail, but since the Internet bubble burst the net has become far larger and of greater economic importance than people even imagined at the time.

If a company keeps making products that people want to buy, their stock will go up. Example? Coca-Cola stock is 74 now. Their adjusted price (for splits) 20 years ago is 13.11. Mcdonald's 98 today, 7.90 then.

Nothing fancy in those two decades, no ground-breaking products that changed the way we eat or drink - just products and brands that enough consumers love, with high profit margins. Of course Apple does run the risk of a game-changer being introduced by someone else.

I bought AAPL (around $135) when the iPod touch was announced, with the modest ambition of having it earn enough to pay for my iPod by the time it was released. That's worked out pretty well for me, all in all.

finnns2000 · Apr 3, 2012

Gooberton said:
If a stock gets to 1000 a share?? There's stocks for 100,000 + for 1 share

I know about Berkshire...

CalWizrd · Apr 3, 2012

SirChadwick said:
I remember the irrational exuberance in the late 90's for technology investments. Money was being thrown at ideas and technology potential without regard. Ideas can be cheap to create and replace. It is not outside the realm of possibility for an Apple bubble pop at a later date.

Somehow, I detect a little more tangible value in Apple than, for example, "Asparagus.com". The 90's were total lunacy... this is a little different.

fruitycups · Apr 3, 2012

Wirelessly posted

Should have investe in apple

basesloaded190 · Apr 3, 2012

foobarbaz said:
If Joe can't afford a 1000$ share, he has no business investing in (or worse trading) individual shares. He should invest in stock funds, instead.

That couldn't be more further from the truth. Because someone can't afford to spend 10's of thousands of dollars on one particular stock means they should not be invested in the stock market? Get real.

guzhogi · Apr 3, 2012

basesloaded190 said:
foobarbaz said:

If Joe can't afford a 1000$ share, he has no business investing in (or worse trading) individual shares. He should invest in stock funds, instead.

Click to expand...

That couldn't be more further from the truth. Because someone can't afford to spend 10's of thousands of dollars on one particular stock means they should not be invested in the stock market? Get real.

I agree with bases loaded. Not being able to afford a stock ≠ they know nothing about the stock market and being able to afford a stock ≠ they do. Not saying that the opposite is true all the time either. It's not just not just how rich you are, it's how smart you are, too.

imageWIS · Apr 3, 2012

andyjam said:
And today, Microsoft is worth $250bn. Nobody could have possibly foreseen the loss of 75% of their market cap (based on inflation adjusted numbers) in the late-1990's, but surely enough...

Apple cannot simply keen on growing forever and ever. My predication is that there will be a big crash some time over the next few years. Probably 2015-16, especially if they reach $1000 per share by 2014.

There is no such thing as the perfect company, or the perfect stock. Investors need to realise this, because AAPL is looking pretty perfect at the moment and that's just going to fuel overconfidence.

This.

Some other player will come in with some other hot product(s) and/or service(s) and overtake Apple. It's the way of the world... you can't have progress without it.

Macclone · Apr 3, 2012

In at 218, 248, 601 and wishing I had more liquid assets,

johncrab · Apr 3, 2012

Keep in mind these Wall Street "ANALysts" are the same ones that set insane targets in order to slam the shares of a good company, enabling their firms to scoop up blocks of shares at a bargain price. They want $1k/share. People in hell want ice water too.

Morod · Apr 3, 2012

iMikeT said:
Buy! Buy! Buy!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W_u4UTvk9w

The Monkey · Apr 3, 2012

NewbieCanada said:
Long term, taking a broad view, everything does go up forever. There are bumps in markets, and some companies fail, but since the Internet bubble burst the net has become far larger and of greater economic importance than people even imagined at the time.

If a company keeps making products that people want to buy, their stock will go up. Example? Coca-Cola stock is 74 now. Their adjusted price (for splits) 20 years ago is 13.11. Mcdonald's 98 today, 7.90 then.

Nothing fancy in those two decades, no ground-breaking products that changed the way we eat or drink - just products and brands that enough consumers love, with high profit margins. Of course Apple does run the risk of a game-changer being introduced by someone else.

I bought AAPL (around $135) when the iPod touch was announced, with the modest ambition of having it earn enough to pay for my iPod by the time it was released. That's worked out pretty well for me, all in all.

I think your point is better stated as "successful companies go up forever." And when we aggregate companies and track them over the years, it tends to support your theory. Looking at the S&P 500 we see a general upward trend (punctuated by precipitous declines). The problem with this, however, is that the S&P 500 doesn't include those companies that have gone under, whose market cap has placed them in another index, who have been acquired, etc. So, the theory that the stock market is a good long bet makes decent sense...until it doesn't. Especially when one makes a bet on only one stock.

Analysts Look Toward $1000 Share Price, $1 Trillion Market Cap for Apple

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