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macrumors bot
Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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Previously-released data from NPD on U.S. Mac sales for January and February have demonstrated relatively anemic year-over-year growth, with January sales tracking only 1% above the previous January's performance and February sales coming in 4% higher. Still, analysts have suggested that ongoing growth in international markets could compensate for stagnation in the U.S. market as consumers continue to wait for product updates. Consequently, analysts have generally been holding firm on their predictions of 15-20% Mac unit growth on a worldwide year-over-year basis for the full quarter.

Some analysts had also held out hope that Apple could sneak in at least one update to its Mac lineup before the end of the quarter to provide a spark for Mac sales, but with the first group of Intel's Ivy Bridge processors not launching until the end of the month, Apple was unable to update its main Mac models within the first three months of the year.

mac_lineup_nov11.jpg



Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty is out with a new research note today incorporating NPD's data on U.S. Mac sales for March, and as might be expected given the lack of hardware updates, Apple continues to fall short of analyst expectations, with Mac shipments down 4% year-over-year for the first calendar quarter.

Huberty continues to believe that international growth will offset at least some of the flat performance in U.S. sales for the quarter, although she appears somewhat pessimistic that it will be able to reach her 15% growth target on a global basis. Nevertheless, Huberty seems optimistic that booming iPhone and iPad sales will make up for any shortfall on the Mac side due to the balance of profits among the segments.
Although the US retail market improved in March, Apple shipment growth decelerated as the company faced much tougher Y/Y comparisons due to a notebook refresh this time last year. US retail data suggest Apple shipments fell 4% Y/Y in C1Q12 compared to our estimate of 15% global Mac unit growth. We expect faster international growth to offset some of the deceleration in the US. In fact, the divergence between international and US growth has accelerated from about four points in prior quarters to 15 points in C4Q11. More importantly, we expect demand upside from iPhone and iPad (83% of gross profit) to more than offset any Mac downside (9% of gross profit).
On a broader basis, the PC market is seeing even more substantial declines in sales, with U.S. PC sales tracking for declines of 10-15% year-over-year for the quarter. That performance is, however, better than Huberty had been modeling for, and major PC manufacturers such as HP and Dell could see some upside if their final results fall in line with data released so far.

Article Link: Lack of Hardware Updates Leading to Lighter-Than-Expected Quarterly Mac Sales
 

ECUpirate44

macrumors 603
Mar 22, 2010
5,750
8
NC
but do we really want to go AMD just yet?

Nope. I'd rather wait for intel than switch. Intel's roadmap looks promising especially for laptops, lots of power and low energy consumption are good enough reasons to deal with a bit of a delay.
 

charlieegan3

macrumors 68020
Feb 16, 2012
2,394
17
U.K
Nope. I'd rather wait for intel than switch. Intel's roadmap looks promising especially for laptops, lots of power and low energy consumption are good enough reasons to deal with a bit of a delay.

totally agree, AMD need to do something on the CPU front soon to survive.
 

Macopotamus

macrumors regular
Jun 22, 2010
186
0
I am not surprised by this but I think there are several causes. Part of this is the iPad cannibalizing Mac sales (why update your Mac when the new iPad does so much, browses the web, plays games, etc, perfectly fine?) and part of it is the lack of exciting hardware updates. Every Mac geek I know, myself included, is anxiously awaiting MacBook Air and major MacBook Pro updates. I'll be the first to upgrade when a retina Mac comes along, or when a MacBook Air with 8GB RAM is offered, and I know many other people feel the same way.

The iPad also allows for longer hardware cycles for Macs. Instead of updating a Mac every year, we can skip a year or two and update the iPad instead to cover the casual tasks and offload mundane tasks to iOS hardware. This gives us all the luxury of waiting for big purchases until there's something we really want, like a slimmer MacBook Pro or a MacBook Air with retina and 8GB RAM and a waffle iron, or the Mac Pro, whatever floats your boat.
 

carmenodie

macrumors 6502a
Apr 25, 2008
775
0
It is never enough for the greedy folks on wall street. Always wanting more and more so we consumers have to spend more and more.
Apple is going to go down in flames in a few years. All them brick and mortar stores are just to increase sales of a few products that continually need to wow. What happens when wow stops? Really, they better brace for a crash in a few years.
 

globalhemp

macrumors regular
Jan 2, 2006
118
5
United States
iMac and mini

We have been holding off on making any new Mac purchases until new ones are released. Already waiting to purchase 1 new iMac and 1 new mini. Both are due for a refresh.
 

oldMac

macrumors 6502a
Oct 25, 2001
543
53
I'm one of the ones waiting for new iMacs...

This quarter will be light on Mac sales.
But assuming they get products out the door, the next quarter will be really huge.
 

Ryth

macrumors 68000
Apr 21, 2011
1,591
157
I think the majority of us are waiting for the MBPro redesign, new IvyBridge chips and possible Retina display iMacs/MBPros.

Sales will soar in the next quarter when they are released. Kinda like the quarter before the iPhone 4S hit...everyone was waiting waiting waiting...there is enough information out there that people know new products are coming.
 

iBug2

macrumors 601
Jun 12, 2005
4,530
851
Holding off for new macbook pro and mac pro. Hoping to get them both this year.
 
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