However the 'head start and not standing still' point is a little misleading.
If Google were standing still they'd be going backwards. Mapping data is a perishable product. As Apple's maps were getting better, Google's would be getting worse. So at some point the lead becomes immaterial.
Assuming, of course, that Google does absolutely nothing, or take their current lead for granted and don't hurry themselves along to improve upon what they already have.
Though truthfully, I doubt we'll be seeing a true winner on the pure data front. Once your maps are perfectly accurate, there isn't much you can do to make your maps better than the competitions. At that point, the biggest issue will be who can update changes the fastest and offer lower levels of detail, which leads to...
The difference very rapidly will be purely in who has the most data collection infrastructure. Apple are going to need to spend some serious money.
This, which is Apple's achilles heel, and Google's bread and butter. For Apple to out-google Google, they'll have to, like you said, spend a serious amount of cash and time both just to try to match what they've been doing for well over a decade now.
Try being the key word here, because I doubt Google will be sitting around waiting for Apple to beat them at the one thing they do best. They'll be spending tons of money to offer a passable experience, and likely never be quite as good at it. And lets face it, beyond storefronts, Apple never has been very strong at offering up internet services. In fact, they kinda suck at it.
When you really think about it, you'll see that Apple Maps will eventually become good as a navigation and GPS app, but will never match Google Maps at offering pure information down to the lowest level possible. Like 'ole Steve said, it's not in their DNA.
