Apple is doomed

munkery · Nov 4, 2012

Do you know why the Nexus 4 requires so much RAM?

It's to carry the load of Android 4.2 now including anti-malware software due to all of the malware that targets Android.

This is the funny part, the anti-malware software only scans apps not downloaded from Google Play despite malware being found in Google Play all the time.

Really Google, at least be honest about the presence of malware in Google Play.

http://mobile.theverge.com/2012/11/2/3590710/android-4-2-security-malware-scanner-permissions

Renzatic · Nov 4, 2012

Unless it's incredibly inefficient, virus scanners don't require all that much ram.

G51989 · Nov 4, 2012

snberk103 said:
The part I bolded is where your logic falls apart. A company can't sustain artificially low prices indefinitely. t.

This is different, Google can afford to, they make a small amount of profit off each device, only something like 30-40 dollars per nexus 7, probably the same for the Nexus 10, then, when you buy apps in the play store, or you just use the device via your gmail account, they make their money that way. Its very sustainable.

Android is being subsidized or not.

Android is free to any carriers or hardware makers who want it, its free and open source.

Android loses money.

Source? Google doesn't make very much off Android, and their profit margins are not very large on their devices, but they still make money on them. Unless you can provide a source to back up your claims.

The more Nexus 4 units they sell, the more money they lose.

Unless you can provide a source, you are incorrect.

That's a winning situation for Apple.

The situation for Apple is that at this point in time, their iDevices are like fashion objects, they are indeed a fad, its gotten to the point where people buy anything with an Apple logo on it, its pretty sad. It all started with those horrible u2 commercials for the iPod.

hey have a competitor who is bleeding money trying to gain marketshare.

Link to back up your claims?

Apple sells lots of things besides iPhone

Like what? The iPhone and iPad make up the bulk of Apples profits. The Mac is pretty meaningless to the company, and meaningless to the computing world, as it always has been.

Apple isn't doomed, they have a good business model, they will follow it, they will fall from number 1 in short order to re replaced by the next top dog. No one stays number 1 forever.

snberk103 · Nov 5, 2012

G51989 said:
...
Source?

Sources? We're both just pulling numbers out of our derrieres.... you should go back and read some of your unsourced claims ...

Besides, you were the one who said that "Android competitors are pricing for market share..." Which means you are forgoing profits today to build up market share for tomorrow. This strategy only works in the short-term. Eventually you have to be able to capitalize on the market share.

Google may be making their money off the secondary services they provide. But they also have the bulk of the expenses because they are the lead developers of Android. All of those developers need to be paid by the secondary services. Plus all the advertising we are seeing. Plus, the Google handset is just hardware...and as such their pricing comes under the same pressure as any other handset maker... and right now all of those handset makers are driving the price down (and hence margins) as they all try to carve out marketshare for their handsets. Yes, Google gets to leverage the Android installations... so they are probably making money there. But.. you have not connected this to how this 'dooms' Apple, which is the thesis we are debating.

So ... for the record, lets just say that Google is making lots of money off of Android... How does that 'doom' Apple?

G51989 said:
...
Unless you can provide a source, you are incorrect.

See above - reference 'derrieres'

G51989 said:
The situation for Apple is that at this point in time, their iDevices are like fashion objects, they are indeed a fad, its gotten to the point where people buy anything with an Apple logo ...

blah blah blah... been said before, over and over again... the Apple 'fad' hasn't imploded .... millions of people seem to disagree with you. Almost everyone I know buys an Apple 'thing' because it makes their life easier. There a couple of people (in my circle) who buy the logo, I'll admit. But that just means the 'doomed' thing is that much less likely. I wish I had a few customers who would hire me regardless of the price.

G51989 said:
Like what? The iPhone and iPad make up the bulk of Apples profits. The Mac is pretty meaningless to the company, and meaningless to the computing world, as it always has been.

Now you are just trolling, and you know it. If you have a point to make, make it. If you are losing the debate, then don't stoop to using ill-thought-out insults.

G51989 said:
Apple isn't doomed, they have a good business model, they will follow it, they will fall from number 1 in short order to re replaced by the next top dog. No one stays number 1 forever.

OK - that I agree with. I just think our predicted timelines may diverge a bit. I think Apple is going to be top-notch for the foreseeable future. I suspect you think there is an imminent fall.

smoledman · Nov 5, 2012

Apple will be #1 in market cap, revenue, profits and tablet marketshare for the foreseeable future.

Also Apple is a cultural icon and phenomenon and nothing can replace that.

Just look at the glass cube store, or the flagship stores in Shanghai, Paris, Berlin, London, Hong Kong. There is nothing else like them.

munkery · Nov 5, 2012

Renzatic said:
Unless it's incredibly inefficient, virus scanners don't require all that much ram.

The reference to RAM usage was just a segue to bring up the reason Apple isn't doomed due to anything done by its competitors.

It's because Apple's competitors do malware so much better that Apple isn't doomed.

.macbookpro. · Nov 6, 2012

I think that what we are in now is a bit of an in between era. Steve jobs died, Tim Cook took over. This is where they both have their contributions to apple. In a couple of years, when Johnny Ive designs all Apple devices and software, you can bet that it's going to be beautiful. Seamless integration of hardware, software, devices. With all internet apps being overlooked by one person too, it will really bring a new level of integration of everything on every device. I think that some stuff from steve's reign will continue, like his hatred of fragmentation, and fonts and packaging.

You can see this happening now though. The HDMi port on the Retina macbook pro's, the iPad mini. The iPhone getting a bigger screen. I think iOS 7 and OSX 10.9 or 11 will bring a completely different, unique design. This is why i think iOS 6 and Mountain lion seem to be more like ".5" updates, not deserving a new number. Same with the new(new) iPad. I think the new maps and siri and icloud features are just getting the infrastructure in place.

I hope i'm right, because Apple cannot keep going on the loyalty of their customers for long. Windows, not android, seems like the main competitor to apple now.

Scrub175 · Nov 6, 2012

.macbookpro. said:
I think that what we are in now is a bit of an in between era. Steve jobs died, Tim Cook took over. This is where they both have their contributions to apple. In a couple of years, when Johnny Ive designs all Apple devices and software, you can bet that it's going to be beautiful. Seamless integration of hardware, software, devices. With all internet apps being overlooked by one person too, it will really bring a new level of integration of everything on every device. I think that some stuff from steve's reign will continue, like his hatred of fragmentation, and fonts and packaging.

You can see this happening now though. The HDMi port on the Retina macbook pro's, the iPad mini. The iPhone getting a bigger screen. I think iOS 7 and OSX 10.9 or 11 will bring a completely different, unique design. This is why i think iOS 6 and Mountain lion seem to be more like ".5" updates, not deserving a new number. Same with the new(new) iPad. I think the new maps and siri and icloud features are just getting the infrastructure in place.

I hope i'm right, because Apple cannot keep going on the loyalty of their customers for long. Windows, not android, seems like the main competitor to apple now.

Well said and agree.

The competition is stepping up and the potential suitors or buying it. I think it's pretty interesting to see Microsoft finally realize how big their Xbox franchise is and that they can make that part of the ecosystems pillar.

Thinner and faster will only maintain market share for so long...

Portaluk · Nov 6, 2012

NO company stays at the top forever.

It wasn't that long ago Nokia phones and Sony vaio laptops were at the top of their technology and design, now look at them.

If you think Apple are infallible then you are delusional.

snberk103 · Nov 6, 2012

Portaluk said:
NO company stays at the top forever.

It wasn't that long ago Nokia phones and Sony vaio laptops were at the top of their technology and design, now look at them.

If you think Apple are infallible then you are delusional.

No one is claiming that Apple is infallible. I simply believe that for the foreseeable future Apple is not about to start a death spiral. Ask me again in 3 years.

But right now, they have good products, good customer service, and - most importantly - enough customers find Apple stuff a good value that Apple can build more stuff each year, at a healthy profit margin.

And, just for the record, I will point out that IBM - a globally significant corporation, started up more than 100 years ago - selling scales and industrial time recorders. So - it is possible for a technology company to have a long existence.

.macbookpro. · Nov 7, 2012

if apple were to release an apple tv that could play iOS games, then you would have a very cheap, very small gaming console that could rival the wii u but would be better for all apple owning households. Then their eco system would be complete.

emir · Nov 7, 2012

.macbookpro. said:
if apple were to release an apple tv that could play iOS games, then you would have a very cheap, very small gaming console that could rival the wii u but would be better for all apple owning households. Then their eco system would be complete.

That would be like a death blow however Apple still needs more qualified games on the Appstore. They might attract more and better developers if they do that though.

What i'm trying to say is you can't really compare Asphalt 6 and let's say the latest NFS or Gran Turismo. Games in appstore are still mobile device games. They have to convince devs to make the latest Call of Duty, Fifa, NFL for the appstore for apple tv with the full game, not a mobile version.

If it were to happen it would be a complete death blow though. Imagine an Apple TV set that does everything Apple TV does today + iOS game capabilities + it's own app store for 499$, comes with a controller.

.macbookpro. · Nov 8, 2012

emir said:
That would be like a death blow however Apple still needs more qualified games on the Appstore. They might attract more and better developers if they do that though.

What i'm trying to say is you can't really compare Asphalt 6 and let's say the latest NFS or Gran Turismo. Games in appstore are still mobile device games. They have to convince devs to make the latest Call of Duty, Fifa, NFL for the appstore for apple tv with the full game, not a mobile version.

If it were to happen it would be a complete death blow though. Imagine an Apple TV set that does everything Apple TV does today + iOS game capabilities + it's own app store for 499$, comes with a controller.

Seeing as though its only $99, i would say $299 with a controller. That would be an even bigger blow.

bongsantos · Nov 17, 2012

snberk103 said:
The part I bolded is where your logic falls apart. A company can't sustain artificially low prices indefinitely. As well, artificially low prices limits what you can reinvest back into the product. I don't know if Android is being subsidized or not. But even if there is a profit being made on each unit sold, it will be very small .. and that limits how much R&D can be invested. And if each unit is being sold at a loss, then Apple will be happy to keep things as they are. They make money, Android loses money. The more Nexus 4 units they sell, the more money they lose. That's a winning situation for Apple. At some point the price has to go up on the Nexus 4 - and they will lose a lot of goodwill.

Also keep in mind that Apple is managing a healthy margin on each iPhone sold. They may not sell as many units, but they are piling up the cash to reinvest in the company and R&D. But it also gives them lots of flexibilty. If Apple feels they are not selling enough units, they can drop the price, and if they wanted - drop it by a lot. Android... not so much.

I think Apple is exactly where they want to be. They have a competitor who is bleeding money trying to gain marketshare. A competitor who is (successfully) trying to capture the low-end, low-cost, low-expectations market. While Apple continues to do what it has always done... Apple owns the high profit margin end the sector. Just like they do with computers.

Also... Apple sells lots of things besides iPhones... they are far from doomed. I mean, they are doomed... but ultimately we all are. I just think we are going to see it anytime soon. Wait...let me check my near earth asteroid forecast.... There are 1343 known near earth asteroids, with one coming this week within 2.7 lunar distances... so it's OK, were good... Apple is not doomed in the foreseeable future. Things may change of course, but not this year at least.

You dont seem to realize where google gets billions of revenues. And yes, not from harware, its from ADVERTISING. If im not mistaken, more than 90% of googles revenues comes from advertising, and not from harware. For you to understand how google affords to sell nexus devices very cheap, read here for the details: http://revoseek.com/technology/nexus-4-cheap/

bongsantos · Nov 17, 2012

Apple will never be doomed. They will forever persist in this world. They will continue to be premium products (Though recent iphone 5 quality issues tells otherwise), but they will never be number 1. Apple used to be a fad, but not anymore. I have an iphone 4s, an ipod touch and an android galxy tablet. I must say, i am much happier with android devices' abilities as i am more productive with my android tablet. My iphone is just there to function just as a phone. We cant deny the fact that you can do much more in an open android device that a very restricted ios device..

eric/ · Nov 17, 2012

snberk103 said:
And, just for the record, I will point out that IBM - a globally significant corporation, started up more than 100 years ago - selling scales and industrial time recorders. So - it is possible for a technology company to have a long existence.

Also worth noting that IBM is still a "top dog".

adildacoolset · Nov 17, 2012

tjl3 said:
Blind or did you not notice GOOG is down 8% from a month ago and AAPL is down 9% in the same period...

According to Wikipedia (yes I just cited Wikipedia), only 25% of all Android devices run ICS and newer (as of 10/2/12). 75% of all Android users are on seemingly ancient hardware, and that doesn't even factor in those users who are on ancient hardware that have been given the opportunity to move to ICS.

Doesn't matter how many more users are on Android when at least 75% of them are running hardware that developers can't take advantage of.

I saw somewhere that reports that 90% of iOS users are on iOS 5 or newer. Now, that I understand that doesn't mean that 90% of iOS users are on iP4 or newer, but to a developer, that is much more appealing to design to a platform of which 90% of the user base has access to against 25% of the alternative.

When I started watching android development tutorials, I found it funny that we were recommended to use API levels of android 2.3. The fragmentation affects apps as well as the device.

----------

sentinelsx said:
Isn't this what schmidt said and then had to eat his words? (well he never cares to acknowledge his stupidity)

I doubt aspiring windows 8 developers will care about android anymore. I find developing in visual studio to be magnitudes better than *cringe* eclipse and its horrible android emulator.

IMHO Xcode is by far, my favourite IDE

hvfsl · Nov 17, 2012

JonL12345 said:
Selling at a lower price doesn't mean lower profits. You might sell more units to more than offset the lower profit margin. Think Wallmart. So pricing high does not mean more money for R&D, or that the competition is hemorrhaging money. Its simple math. Instead, you have to look at total costs and revenue. Only then can you establish who earns more.

Apple has been a premium brand for some time. However, the competition is now fierce and are beginning to undercut on price significantly, particularly with the superior spec Nexus 4. Google has pulled a rabbit out of the hat on this one.

Android was always going to overtake iOS because they are taking the Windows approach. Not everyone can afford a premium product, no matter how good it is and Apple don't want to complete with $100 devices with wafer thin profits.

But Apple makes far more profit on it's iOS devices than Samsung, HTC and a few others combined. Plus I don't know what benches you have been looking at, but the the iPhone 5 is quite a bit faster than the Nexus in a number of areas like Graphics.

eric/ · Nov 17, 2012

The iPhone is behind the Nexus there.

Though not by much.

76ShovelHead · Nov 21, 2012

Renzatic said:
Apple's doomed, Microsoft dying a slow death, Google enjoying the last big hurrah before it's inevitable fall...

Wow. Going by these thread titles, it's safe to say that everyone in the computer industry is fairly well good and screwed, huh? I guess in 10 years we'll be communicating via signal fire, doing spreadsheets on large rolls of papyrus, and figuring out complex equations with an abacus.

Haha you just made my day.

vincelam · Nov 23, 2012

just wait until next year when apple releases their tv set and then it will change all over again

RSL · Nov 27, 2012

Apple MAKES some of the best software and hardware. (Well they don't really make much hardware anymore, but they are involved in the engineering/production process.)

Not a single company can match them in what they do.

Google is no threat to Apple. Android is terrible IMO. They are an advertising company with few great software products (online search, gmail, etc.) which are not directly competing with Apple.

Until a serious competitor shows up/changes the game, it's hard to see Apple's model failing. I see today's Apple a little like German car makers. Great products that everyone wants. But they are now lagging behind on innovation, mostly because they cannot move beyond their beloved combustion engine (no electric engines AFAIK). Eventually that will happen to Apple, unless they find another Steve Jobs.

Priamus · Nov 28, 2012

RSL said:
Apple MAKES some of the best software and hardware. (Well they don't really make much hardware anymore, but they are involved in the engineering/production process.)

Not a single company can match them in what they do.

Google is no threat to Apple. Android is terrible IMO. They are an advertising company with few great software products (online search, gmail, etc.) which are not directly competing with Apple.

Until a serious competitor shows up/changes the game, it's hard to see Apple's model failing. I see today's Apple a little like German car makers. Great products that everyone wants. But they are now lagging behind on innovation, mostly because they cannot move beyond their beloved combustion engine (no electric engines AFAIK). Eventually that will happen to Apple, unless they find another Steve Jobs.

I agree

JonL12345 · Jan 24, 2013

I hate to say it, but I told you so. No one here would listen. Apple is starting to struggle and that is reflected in its share price.

NT1440 · Jan 24, 2013

JonL12345 said:
The smartphone sector was dominated by Apple. Now, Android has 75% market share with Apple around 15%, as I understand it. If that is not destroying the competition then I don't know what is!
.

This is business, the only number that matters is profit. Apple is dominating the profit share of the smartphone industry.

Apple is doomed

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