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jasonbaum

macrumors regular
Nov 11, 2007
118
0
Arlington VA
Bottom line: if you add up all of the people in this thread plus all of the people who have backed every iPhone 5 dock on kickstarter, you still don't come up with a very big number. For kickstarter projects, the numbers look good, though not great, but the numbers aren't big enough to point to an obvious product hole Apple needed to fill.

As for your comment about Apple creating a solution to dock iPhones in their stores... Apple wasn't housing iPhone 4 models in their iPhone 4 docks, nor do they house iPads in their own iPad docks. Apple came up with a custom solution that better fit the needs of their stores. It only makes sense that they've done that again for the iPhone 5.

Hey, I want an iPhone 5 dock as much as you do, but people like us are in such a tiny minority that Apple decided to leave it up to other companies to fill that need.

You're second point is well taken.

As far as market size, I am not sure the sampling of this forum or kick starter is entirely fair. I tend to look at the market opportunity.

Let's say this 40 million units by the end of 2012 is correct.

Let's say 1% of all users want a dock. That's 400,000 docks. At $25 a pop that's a ten million dollar line of business. And then there's the intangible aspect of brand loyalty.

Look I'm not saying that not being in the dock business is a bad decision for Apple. I'm sure they've run the numbers and decided it wasn't worth it. That being said, one of Steve Job's driving forces was not to go by the numbers but go by designing what people needed. As I said earlier, I just wonder if this is a bellwether to a cultural shift, seemingly trivial but in retrospect something that might be viewed as another brick in the wall.
 

darster

Suspended
Aug 25, 2011
1,703
1
That Belkin car charger is way overpriced. Just buy a usb car charger for less than $10 on amazon and use your existing cable.
 

jasonbaum

macrumors regular
Nov 11, 2007
118
0
Arlington VA
That Belkin car charger is way overpriced. Just buy a usb car charger for less than $10 on amazon and use your existing cable.

I'm going to guess not everyone will want to take their cable to and from their car on a daily basis so once they buy a new cable and a $10 charger, it doesn't seem that a thirty dollar dedicated charger is "way overpriced".
 

mcdj

macrumors G3
Original poster
Jul 10, 2007
8,964
4,214
NYC
I just wonder if this is a bellwether to a cultural shift, seemingly trivial but in retrospect something that might be viewed as another brick in the wall.

I think it is. The bean counters are taking over. Why make a dock when you can let some poor sap company tool up for it, handle the distribution and sales, and still charge a license fee for the Lightning chip? If the dock market is 1 million units, by the time Apple designs, manufactures, and distributes it, their end profit is probably only marginally more than the license fee. Why lift a finger?

This is not only sad, it's bad business. Sure, the stockholders are happy in the short term, but in the long term, this licensing scheme means far less accessories will hit the market (we're already seeing that.), which means more room on the shelves for Android accessories. And far less small accessory makers will be able to survive, which means the entire Apple ecosystem takes a hit, and as any naturalist will tell you, when the ecosystem is compromised, the entire food chain is affected, including the top.
 

Smigit

macrumors 6502
Feb 21, 2011
403
264
Let's say 1% of all users want a dock. That's 400,000 docks. At $25 a pop that's a ten million dollar line of business. And then there's the intangible aspect of brand loyalty.

That math may be a good reason not to produce a dock. I know you are just guestimating so I won't take it too literally, but what is 10 million for a company that pulls in tens of billions in revenue annually?

Sure, it may be easy sales, but they still need people to develop it, people to build it, people to manage stock and it has to take floor space in their retail chains. It might be that it's financially better to not produce it themselves and to just stock someone else's product and take a cut there. It may also free up production lines for products that will have a higher demand such as headphones or whatever.

That said...I wouldn't be surprised to see a first party dock down the line. Apple was clearly slow at getting lightening adopted (hell its still dragging on). They were slow to get adapters to the market so I don't think it is unfeasible that it also impacted their ability to release docks, and if they have a lower demand than cables then perhaps we'll see one released in 2013 once they are having an easier time getting lightening based accessories to the market.
 

jasonbaum

macrumors regular
Nov 11, 2007
118
0
Arlington VA
That math may be a good reason not to produce a dock. I know you are just guestimating so I won't take it too literally, but what is 10 million for a company that pulls in tens of billions in revenue annually?

Sure, it may be easy sales, but they still need people to develop it, people to build it, people to manage stock and it has to take floor space in their retail chains. It might be that it's financially better to not produce it themselves and to just stock someone else's product and take a cut there. It may also free up production lines for products that will have a higher demand such as headphones or whatever.

That said...I wouldn't be surprised to see a first party dock down the line. Apple was clearly slow at getting lightening adopted (hell its still dragging on). They were slow to get adapters to the market so I don't think it is unfeasible that it also impacted their ability to release docks, and if they have a lower demand than cables then perhaps we'll see one released in 2013 once they are having an easier time getting lightening based accessories to the market.

I agree that it is a small business line but with a distribution channel already in place as well as a huge financial advantage in terms of the actual cost of parts I would think the decision would more cultural than financial.

And you could be right about an Apple dock in the future once they've tamed their lightning supply side challenges. And then you've got the Phill Schiller seemingly absolute statement that Apple isn't going to make a dock. There's nothing wrong with changing your mind (e.g. Original iPhone pricing and as I look into my crystal ball, iPad mini original pricing) but what benefit is there to categorically rule out a product that there is historic empirical evidence is in demand.

Again, it comes down to how the brand is relating to its most valuable segment.

I hope you're right and Apple does get into the game. The result will be two-fold. There will be a quality product that becomes the benchmark and other manufacturers will be inspired to get into the business seeing that Apple sees the value.
 

linds15

macrumors 6502a
Oct 16, 2012
535
1
Great White North
just bought the elevation dock, yes its too expensive, but ive been looking for a good dock for a while, and at this point just needed something reliable. hopefully it all works out
 

jasonbaum

macrumors regular
Nov 11, 2007
118
0
Arlington VA
just bought the elevation dock, yes its too expensive, but ive been looking for a good dock for a while, and at this point just needed something reliable. hopefully it all works out

I disagree. If you use the dock for two years, that's $45 a year or eighty-seven cents a week for a well-made, great looking accessory you'll be using on a daily basis.

At least that's the logic I use when I am justifying something that's too expensive. :rolleyes:

Enjoy and let us know how easily your phone goes in and out of the dock.
 
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takeshi74

macrumors 601
Feb 9, 2011
4,974
68
but what benefit is there to categorically rule out a product that there is historic empirical evidence is in demand.
Depends on perspective. Clearly the empirical evidence does not indicate sufficient demand for Apple. Your notion of sufficient demand is entirely different. Evidence can be empirical but benefit interpreted from the evidence can be subjective.
 
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J.C

macrumors 6502
Nov 12, 2008
458
58
Surely Apple has made their position pretty clear? I interpret from Phil Schiller's comments that they had very little demand for a dock... no matter what people seem to think.

Apple just makes cool things that are nice to use and customers will buy. If a product doesn't fit into that philosophy they won't make or sell it. Nothing has changed at Apple in that respect. The lack of Apple dock indicates nothing deeper.

https://www.macrumors.com/2012/09/18/apples-phil-schiller-reveals-no-plans-for-an-iphone-5-dock/
 

animatedude

macrumors 65816
Feb 27, 2010
1,143
88
Surely Apple has made their position pretty clear? I interpret from Phil Schiller's comments that they had very little demand for a dock... no matter what people seem to think.

Apple just makes cool things that are nice to use and customers will buy. If a product doesn't fit into that philosophy they won't make or sell it. Nothing has changed at Apple in that respect. The lack of Apple dock indicates nothing deeper.

https://www.macrumors.com/2012/09/18/apples-phil-schiller-reveals-no-plans-for-an-iphone-5-dock/


if they had "very little demand" then why the iPhone 4 dock is still a best seller according to apple online store.
 

J.C

macrumors 6502
Nov 12, 2008
458
58
if they had "very little demand" then why the iPhone 4 dock is still a best seller according to apple online store.

Whatever the reason I'm sure it's very simple and there is no conspiracy. Perhaps 'best seller' on the Apple online store doesn't indicate high volume sales + profitability. Sounds like a marketing term with little meaning. Keep in mind the increased costs associated with Lightning.
 

jasonbaum

macrumors regular
Nov 11, 2007
118
0
Arlington VA
Depends on perspective. Clearly the empirical evidence does not indicate sufficient demand for Apple. Your notion of sufficient demand is entirely different. Evidence can be empirical but benefit interpreted from the evidence can be subjective.

Dang. You ran circles around me logically.

In my mind this all goes back to the intangible value between the brand and its followers. Beyond the raw numbers, part of Apple's success is driven by the unique relationship it has built with legions of consumers. That relationship is extremely difficult to put into numbers. The elasticity of the relationship is difficult to judge, mainly coming to light when Apple takes a major misstep.

Not making a dock isn't a major misstep. It might not be a misstep at all. I think it is. In the grand scheme of things, I still wonder if it just another example of Apple chipping away at the relationship that separates Apple from virtually every other brand under the sun.
 
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