Next question though, is who gets Florida State, Clemson, Miami, and Ga Tech. None of these are good additions to the SEC, so... Big East? Big 12? Can the Pac 12 pick off Texas, Tech, and Ok/OK state?
Pure speculation on my part... but I think the SEC smells blood in the ACC water and picks off two schools to get to 16, and the Big-12 outlasts a weakened ACC and picks up six schools (not all from the ACC necessarily) to get to 16. The Big Ten obviously picks up two more schools.
Member schools as of the current climate in regular text, potential schools in
italics
ACC as of today
BC
Clemson (SEC)
Duke (B12)
Florida State (SEC)
GT (B12)
Miami (SEC)
NCST (B12)
UNC (B12)
Virginia (B12)
VTech (B12)
Wake Forest
----
Louisville (B12)
Notre Dame (B10)
Pitt
Syracuse
First thing that happens is that the SEC poaches FSU and Clemson. The SEC's main concerns do not lie with television markets, as unlike the B10, believe that increased competition will result in better TV contracts. As such, they are looking to preserve and promote as many natural rivalries as they can.
Smelling blood in the water, the Big 12 quickly secures Virginia Tech. Virginia, not wanting to be left behind, quickly follows.
With the departures of Virginia and VTech, the ACC is in complete panic mode.
Vanderbilt is not-so-subtly told by the SEC to find a better fit elsewhere. Vanderbilt applies to the Big Ten, and the Presidents wanting to show their constituents that not everything is about sports... accepts due to the academic stature of Vandy and the growing Nashville market. The SEC puts out feelers to Miami, and Miami returns the attention favorably. The SEC is now done with expansion.
Louisville, with no long-standing loyalties to the ACC makes overtures to the Big 12 to rescue them. The Big 12 tells them "Maybe, we have bigger fish to fry first." and makes a play for UNC. UNC looks at the crumbling ACC and realizes that they should have joined the Big Ten when they had the chance and accepts. Duke follows. As does NC State, thus preserving their long-standing North Carolina Research Triangle.
Georgia Tech, in a panic, applies to both the Big 12 and the Big Ten. The Big Ten, sensing that Notre Dame is now trapped unless they wish to be frozen out of the 64-team mega-association, declines their application. The Big 12, now has the choice between Louisville and Georgia Tech. The Big 12 not-so-subtly tells Iowa State that they no longer have a seat at the big kids table. Iowa State sues in an attempt to prevent expulsion, but as the vote of the remainder of the Big 12 is unanimous is eventually forced out. Louisville and Georgia Tech are invited to join the Big 12. The Big 12 is now done.
The PAC-12, unable to convince southern and east coast schools to join, invites BYU. With existing athletics relationships in certain non-revenue sports, Boise State and San Diego State are also asked to join. Notre Dame is also asked to join, but cannot justify the time zone differences and increased travel costs over playing against teams in the Big East and ACC. Short one member to get to the magic number of 16 teams, the PAC-12 takes __________ as their last school (New Mexico, UNLV, Houston, SMU, etc.)
Notre Dame, finally realizing at the 11th hour that they are about to be frozen out, except by lawsuit, reluctantly applies to the Big Ten. The Big Ten accepts Notre Dame's application.
Big Ten
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Ohio State
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northtwestern
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
ND
SEC
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
South Carolia
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt (gets kicked out and leaves for the Big Ten)
FSU
Clemson
Miami
PAC-12
Arizona
Arizona State
Cal
Colorado
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington
Washington State
BYU
Boise State
San Diego State
Random
Big-12
Baylor
Iowa State (kicked out)
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas
Texas Tech
West Virginia
Virginia
Virginia Tech
UNC
Duke
NCST
Louisville
Georgia Tech
I think geographically, it would make more sense to split up the Big-12 to the PAC-12 and the ACC... but I think the ACC will be hard-pressed to poach a Big-12 school given its relative perceived weakness as a conference surviving to the 64-team mega-association.
Anyways, just a thought while waiting for some work to finish.