The bigger issue for Apple is sustainable sales.
The iPhone market has become saturated...especially since they moved to all carriers, implemented a free on contract/$99 device and have even extended their reach to discount carrriers.
It's not a Rolls Royce. It's essentially a mainstream highly sedan that the overwhelming majority (of US customers) have to finance (subsidize) to afford.
They have to make sure they release a compelling product...or heck at least one they can bring to market in a reasonable time for the 4S folks rolling off contract next month.
Personally I think there is a bit of a smartphone/tablet bubble looming. Current smartphones are light, fast, have fast enough broadband connections for streaming HD video, have excellent HD video cameras built in.....what's the next hook to really pull a critical mass of customers? Or will incremental spec bumps and software changes be enough.
heh heh, I think you are just looking at Iphone in US. IDC said that Apple only has 15% of the smartphone sales in 3Q12.
http://www.iclarified.com/25373/samsung-more-than-doubles-apple-in-3q12-smartphone-sales
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And a lot of countries outside of US sell the phone unlocked and at full retail price. The question is not saturation as much as price point. Iphone is no where near saturation in term of goegraphy, but it is a tough sales at current price point. A $600+ unlocked smartphone is a very expensive device for developing country and limit the size of the potential pool of customers. At some point Apple need to address the mid market (somewhere around $300-$400 unlock price). Iphone 5 has 50-60% gross margin (and probably low 30% net margin after all the expense and tax). Apple can easily produce an Iphone value line that cost between $300 and $400 and make 30% gross margin (and 15-20% net margin). Samsung made a lot of noise in the high end with S3, Note 2 etc by putting a lot of feature at a very low price. The margin suck on those product. The real money maker for Samsung is the mid price point smartphone where HTC etc do not seem to be able to compete well and the margin is much better. A lower price point Iphone will go after Samsung profit center and alos help the long term ecosystem erosion problem. A 15% smartphone market share (even with much higher purchase rate for apps and commerce opportunities) is not going to make it in the long term.
The next wave for mobile device is going to focus on location based application. And that is why Apple and Google are fighting so hard on the map. Today mobile device are focusing on thing that I can do everywhere. i.e. I can surf the web, buying stuff, watching movie, listening to music, playing game everywhere. My guess is that the future device will tell me what can I do around the location that I am in. PC has a good 15 years or so run. Today PC growth has reverse but they are still selling a lot of them. Same for smartphone and other mobile device, we will still have another 5-10 years of good runs before the next hot device will take over.
