on contract technically the phone is free. The carrier isn't making you pay money up front.
If we look at past history, I would say yes, but I'm thinking about it, it would make sense to get rid of the 4S out of their lineup next year, because of lightning, LTE, 4 inch screen, etc. just to make their technologies become more universal throughout their lineup. This would quicken the pace of 4 inch apps that are going into the App Store. And then the Lightning connector would move away from the 30 pin in pretty much all of their devices.
On contract the phone is subsidized, but Apple isn't giving anything away for free.
To the end consumer the phone is absolutely free minus the $0.01 initial charge. The contract is the commitment to the service plan.
We can argue semantics all day long, but at the end of the day the customer pays something whether it's in the form of a phone or contract.
They could just modify the 4S for the lightning connector. Wouldn't be difficult since you're replacing a bigger part for a smaller part. That's pretty much what they did with the iPad 4, which is in terms of outer casing an iPad 3 with a lightning connector.
I know, but the carrier is giving the phone away for free, not Apple!To the end consumer the phone is absolutely free minus the $0.01 initial charge. The contract is the commitment to the service plan.