Nope. They're close, but the A5X still has the edge when measured for raw performance in resolution independent tests. Otherwise, Apple wouldn't have pissed around with such a stupid chip.
The second iPad mini will get an A6X if it's Retina while the iPad picks up the new kid, the A7X, unless they get to the stage where the iPad's crazy resolution doesn't need a pumped up version of the chip, but I don't see that happening for a while.
If you go by the rumors that fast coming out, the ipad 5 can be expected between march-june 2013. The dimensions given by macotakara does make sense if you look at it from the mini's design perspective. Even so, the A7 which was supposed to be made by TSMC on a 20nm design, will not be ready, even until fall.
In my opinion, here is a logical roadmap. The ipad 5 gets updated with a 28nm SOC from TSMC, which they call A6Y or A7X, and the 20nm expected in 2014, will be called A8. Currently the ipad 4 uses a A6X based on a 32nm process from samsung. Using this updated SOC, they can extract a little more performance and improved battery life. Adding to that will be the IGZO technology, they should be able to reduce a great deal of heat dissipation, battery consumption by upto 40-50%, and reducing the battery size by around 25%. That way, they will still be able to offer the standard 10 hour life claim, if not more. But there lies a problem in that.
With these current possible updates, they can only at max improve the following: rear camera to 8mp, front camera to 1080p, add perhaps NFC, and add the truly global LTE chip from Qualcomm. The graphics hardware may also shift to Series 6 "Rogue" series.
With a new design change, improved internals, and improved battery life, and a substantial weight reduction, there isn't a large difference from the ipad 4. with the ipad 4 already getting an retina, newly added A6X, lightning, it almost on par with the upcoming ipad 5.
That means the budget tablet ipad 4 isn't going to do well, once it moves away from the mainstream and shift to the ipad 2 position. You might as well pay the additional 100$ and get the MUCH MUCH better ipad 5 in the first place.
I definitely don't believe that ipad mini 1st gen will replace ipad 2. It's simply doesnt make sense.
A workaround such a problem would be to do two simultaneous things. Firstly increase the base price to $549 for the ipad 5. Then surprise everybody by offering it as 32gb, 64gb and the NEW 128gb. Thereby saying a $50 increase gives u double the space. The icing on cake would be they streamlined the whole lineup and had LTE on the same models for the same price. So just 3 ipad models to choose from. A strategy like that will practically smash the competition out of the market.
Now for the budget model, they have 2 options, either retain the ipad 4 focusing still on the retina and slap the prize down, or upgrade the ipad 2 to have an A6 ( not A6X), and offer improved performance but no retina.
the ipad mini will get the retina and A6X and a base price of around $349, while the ipad mini non-retina will find a slight decrease base price to $299
So can we dream for a scenario like that???