Uh... Well, that's not what's happening right now. TMo is offering rates that are better than $20 less per month, with an explicit financing option of $20 or $25 per month for 20 months, plus the balance as a down payment. For my wife and I, to have data and texting on both our lines, plus 700 shared minutes, we were spending $160 a month. Switching to TMo, our plan has dropped to $90 a month. When they come out with iPhones, we'll probably get them on financing, which will bring our monthly bill to $130.
Given the nature of the telecom industry, I can understand being a bit pessimistic, but I see this as a positive. Over the past ten years, my wife and I have had subsidized phones for exactly two years. The rest of the time we either were using the phones that we had, or we bought unlocked phones because we weren't satisfied with the features on the phones available from AT&T. So, effectively, we've paid for ten phones, but only received two. If we assume that the cost is about $20 per month per line, then the eight years that we've been out of contract with AT&T has represented paying them $3840 more than their services actually cost. That's a chunk of change. So, as I said, I'm optimistic about this, at least for now...
Why would T-Mobile discount plans by the same amount that you finance the phone for? From a business standpoint, that makes no sense. Just using nice, round numbers, you have this:
$200 subsidized phone + $100 a month service bill. The carrier is initially -$450 if they paid $650 for the phone. If $20 of your service bill was used to pay off that loss, the $450 is recouped once you pay the 23rd month of your contract. All in all, in 24 months, they collect $2600 from you. Subtract the $650 and they are left with a net $1950.
Now let's say you finance the phone for $25 a month for 20 months. Your plan is now down to $80 a month, but you add $25 for the financing = $105 a month. $25 * 20 months is $500. So, you'll need a $150 down payment for a $650 phone (Essentially you're paying a subsidized price and paying via financing to make up the cost). In 20 months, T-Mobile has collected $2250 from you. For comparison's sake, let's say you stay on for 4 more months with your newly discounted $80 plan. In 24 months, T-Mobile has collected $2570. Minus the $650 they paid for the phone initially, they are left with a net $1920 over 2 years. That's a 1.5% profit loss for T-Mobile.
I used an iPhone as an example because this is MacRumors and all.
As I said, the sole benefit would be not being tied to a contract if you pay 100% upfront. I guess being stuck in a 20-month financing contract is better than 24 months. Ultimately, even though the plan is discounted, you'll be paying the same once the financing is added in, which makes me question, 'What's the point'?
People who upgrade every 20-24 months would see their bill remain the same or increase by a few dollars depending on their down payment and type of phone as they'd probably upgrade as soon as possible. Carriers would see their profits remain the same or actually decrease a little.
The only way this makes business sense is for plans to stay right where they are with financing additional. Otherwise, it's like paying with $100 bill or 5 $20 bills. The end result is essentially the same.
If AT&T and VW follow these footsteps, they are not going to take a hit on their profits. T-Mobile's plan is great if you like their service and don't mind a few (temporary?) sacrifices and don't upgrade every few years.