I won't sell my stock tomorrow for two simple reasons.
1) This rumor sounds like a load of donkey dung. Unverified statements by "people familiar" that just happens to contradict every other data source. Not to mention. It references (rehashes?) "news" that was reported a month ago as the foundation for the claim.
2) Estimates for next year are allegedly $50-60. Lets assume they only report $40. Lets assume the ITV is released in October. Let's assume this adds $20 to their earnings for 2014 ( I have seen it estimated that it could add $40+). So, in 2013 they earn 45billion, 2014 60 billion, and 2015 65 billion ( let's assume iPhone sales slow and ITV only grows by 50%. Also lets assume iPad sales stall/ slow and certain analysts are right about them having no more ideas for new products)
Currrent Apple has 140billion in cash. 140 + 45 + 60 + 65 = 310billion in cash.
This assumes the bearish earnings case combined with no innovation and reduced margins. It also assumes App Store/ advertising revenue doesn't grow and that they are unable to monetize the Facebook relationship. It also assumes a China Mobile deal doesn't happen.
With the China Mobile deal that is predicted to be announced this week, we can expect a bullish case for sales to grow by 100-150% in 2013 and a bearish case for them to increase by 50%. Assuming the bullish case we should add 40-50 billion in earnings to the 2013 and 2014 calander year, and 35 billion to 2015 (let's assume something causes sales to slow/ margin pressure). Assuming the bearish case we add 20billion to 2013, 30 billion to 2014, and 15billion to 2015. Assuming the bear case ( my numbers are too low for obvious reasons), we see them having 400billion in cash by the end of 2015. This assumes no dividend increase/ share buy back.
Any objections? I see a serious problem with the calls for Apple to fall to $300. Anyone with a brain sees this scenario as happening. The bull case gives us 750billion + in cash by the end of 2015.
Even if carrier subsidies disappear ( a scenario that seems unlikely) Apple will sell 20million iPhones a quarter. People in Asia/ Europe are already paying full price for the phones. Sure, the low end market will slow dramatically, however, 80-100 million iPhones + 100million iPads + 40 million iPad minis + iAd revenue + itv revenue will keep them Very Profitable and earning 30-40billion annually for at least the next 5-6 years. I have a hard time believing they have no new products that will come out during that time/ plans for innovative ideas that have not been released.