Whatever drove Apple stock prices down, a rumour or a true information, doesn't matter because stock price reflects future expectations rather than current or past achievements. And the price decrease might be triggered by a false rumour but is sustained by a majority of other factors and reality.
Lets see. People tend to forget that just in January 2009, after introduction of iPhone 3Gs, Apple stock was as low as less then 80 dollars. With iPhone 4S and iPad2, stock was still around 325 dollars. Only introduction of iPad 3 moved the stock higher than 500 dollars and only with introduction of iPhone 5 reached 700 dollars.
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The peak of Apple price in September reaching 700 was really a peak, as I think. Between 2010 and 2012, Apple became a leading supplier of smartphone first on ATT, then on Verizon and then Sprint. There is simply not much left to expand US carriers anymore, except T-mobile, whose future is not that certain.
In terms of smartphones, one can see that highest growth was brought by 3GS from 78$ to more than 200 $.
iPhone4 even combined with iPad increased the stock price only from 200 to 300 dollars.
iPad 2 and 4S moved the price from 300 to almost 600 dollars.
iPad 3 actually drove stock price down; so is iPhone 5's introduction back to 500.
The downward movement of Apple stock happened AFTER every introduction of new models and slumps continued for at least 2 months, or even for half a year like in 2011, despite iPhone CDMA.
The upward movement of Apple stock always happened BEFORE introduction of new models and rise continued for 3 months in general before the introduction.
The largest spike in Apple prices in 2012 happened TWICE because of introduction of 2 new products as iPad 3 retina and iPhone 5; stock now is 489 dollars which similar to price of stock in February 2012.
Bottom line: we are now two months AFTER introduction of iPad4/iPad mini and iPhone 5. This slump may continue until February/March.
If the Wall Street is right, it means investor are in slump period for Apple and they don't believe that Apple will introduce anything new until May/June because the rise hasn't started.
If only Apple could wait until February to introduce iPad 4, then the stock price wouldn't fall as now and would be actually in rise period. However, things are done, all new models are introduced and there is no exciting mythical new things to come at least until May/June according to investors.
I would expect the Apple price to stabilize around 500 and start rising after February maybe in March in anticipation for June announcements (whatever it is, 5S or not).
As one can see, Summer announcement are very strong stock price generators as compared to much weaker January announcements which leave stock stagnating or even falling for some time.
Since it is rumored that second half of 2013 may see newer iPhones, iPad 5 and cheap iPhones, stock rebound will come in March or 3 months before June.
Based on previous experience, every new iPhone/iPad models drives Apple stock up by approximately 100-200 dollars, 2012 being abnormally high for whatever reasons, maybe on strength of iPad3 retina.
So, March-June rise on average must reach around 600 dollars. This is sustained level of stock price as I believe because it is consistent with all previous stock price fluctuations.
So one can judge 200 dollar price increase in 2012 as being overshooting of long term sustained price.
I believe that by June appl will be around 600 dollars.
