Is Apple's silence killing it right now?

Solomani · Jan 20, 2013

Anuba said:
Silence, killing Apple? Um, no... silence helped build Apple.

The problem isn't silence, but predictability. Apple used to have surprise upon surprise coming outta left field. There'd be an event and Steve would come out and unveil something that we knew little to nothing about, often an entirely new product category. Designs would change wildly.

Secrecy is dying art in the Age of Instagram.

Anyone can leak the best kept secrets these days. Even the CIA and FBI couldn't prevent WikiLeaks from leaking confidential secrets of the US Government.

Heck, even I'm unable to contain the secret that Kim Kardashian is having a.... hmmm hold on a second, someone's knocking at my door....

MacNut · Jan 20, 2013

Rogifan said:
How exactly is Samsung eating Apple's lunch? And what evidence is there that the 5 is a flop? And by evidence I don't mean rumors from the WSJ or the comments sections from anti-Apple sites like Engadget and c|net. Do you have sales figures no one else has that proves the 5 is a flop?

See this is the BS that Apple absolutely nothing to counter and eventually perception become reality. So by the time Apple does report quarterly results the meme is already set that no matter what they report it's going to be spun negatively. They could report 60M iPhone and 20M iPad sales and we'd still hear that Apple is doomed and Samsung is winning.

We will get sales numbers next week when Apple releases it's quarterlys. Why would you want a 5 when the 4 and 4S are simular? What is really compelling to upgrade?

GermanyChris · Jan 21, 2013

The problem IMHO is that the whole company shouldn't hinge on the iPhone.

Bernard SG · Jan 21, 2013

GermanyChris said:
The problem IMHO is that the whole company shouldn't hinge on the iPhone.

Yeah, if only they had other products like PC's, tablets, music players... uhhh, wait a minute...

baba blakship · Jan 21, 2013

Yadda yadda yadda... Maps schmaps... Share Price up/down... Samsung PR dept hitting their stride.

Background noise imho.

Lefsetz makes a good point about countering perceptions (or not) but the best analysis of the Malaise@Apple is still this:

http://counternotions.com/2012/11/05/sirjony/

Worth 10 mins of your time.

GermanyChris · Jan 21, 2013

Bernard SG said:
Yeah, if only they had other products like PC's, tablets, music players... uhhh, wait a minute...

Should we look at the revenues of each of the other products relative to total revenue?

**edit**

I attached it, over half of apple's revenue comes from a fashion accessory, and like all fashion is not lasting and is at the whim of groupthink.

Rogifan · Jan 21, 2013

MacNut said:
We will get sales numbers next week when Apple releases it's quarterlys. Why would you want a 5 when the 4 and 4S are simular? What is really compelling to upgrade?

Um, LTE for me. What's really compelling upgrades on the Android side? Slightly bigger screens and faster processor? How is that different than Apple?

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GermanyChris said:
The problem IMHO is that the whole company shouldn't hinge on the iPhone.

So you think Apple needs more product lines?

GermanyChris · Jan 21, 2013

Rogifan said:
Um, LTE for me. What's really compelling upgrades on the Android side? Slightly bigger screens and faster processor? How is that different than Apple?

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So you think Apple needs more product lines?

I think apple is a big company now, it can walk and chew gum. i.e. it can give egual time to all it's product lines. I understand they're all growing but they obviously need more attention. If iOS drops Apple looses what looks to be 70% of their revenue. It would necessarily be bad if the were diversified in their iToy's but that's not even the case. Three maybe four phones and 3 tablets? It would be like having a "diversified" portfolio of banks and insurance in 2008.

aristobrat · Jan 21, 2013

Rogifan said:
Apple's stock is down 30% over the past few months in large part due to perception not reality. It's frustrating to see Apple just sit there and take it.

Apple stock does weird stuff.

Do you recall hearing about the almost 50% drop back in 2008?

Steve Jobs' charisma did not make the stock less vulnerable to low swings.

aristobrat · Jan 21, 2013

GermanyChris said:
Three maybe four phones and 3 tablets? It would be like having a "diversified" portfolio of banks and insurance in 2008.

If the industry pundits are correct, and the future of consumer computing is moving from computers to tablets and phones (just as how the market for music players moved from stand-alone devices like the iPod to converged devices like the iPhone), it looks like Apple is diversified very well, no?

What would you say that Dell and HP's "diversified portfolio" is (in terms of their consumer markets), if the trend does indeed shift from computers to tablets and phones?

GermanyChris · Jan 21, 2013

aristobrat said:
If the industry pundits are correct, and the future of consumer computing is moving from computers to tablets and phones (just as how the market for music players moved from stand-alone devices like the iPod to converged devices like the iPhone), it looks like Apple is diversified very well, no?

What would you say that Dell and HP's "diversified portfolio" is (in terms of their consumer markets), if the trend does indeed shift from computers to tablets and phones?

Pundits are looking at the sales of tablets and smartphones and going "look people are switching from computers to tablet/pad. The are doing this without regard to A: Fashion and B: Price. Tablet and phones are cheaper and über trendy. Why has the iPad mini that would be a sales flop according the cognoscenti sold because it's cheaper it laughable people talking about how 'heavy" and "cumbersome" the old iPad is.

Does dell write software? does Dell deal in cloud storage? Does Dell sell music?

Dell and HP make computers and that is there core business, Dell and HP are doing fine through enterprise their enterprise sales.

Rogifan · Jan 21, 2013

Here's a perfect illustration of the crap that's out there. Basically 3 stories on the front page of c|net that are anti-Apple. The iMac review and iPhone 6 is going to suck articles are new yet are the first things you see on the site.

Notice how they say the iMac is fine for "Mac loyalists", once again giving the impression that the only people who buy Apple products are loyalists/fanboys.

With the iPhone 6 article we get pure click bait. The sub headline claims iPhone demand is slumping but they have no hard numbers to back it up with. At this point there isn't one shred of concrete evidence that iPhone demand is slumping. I'm sure c|net wishes it to be true, but wishing something doesn't make it so.

And the 3rd article about a cheap Android tablet: um, why compare it to the mini (other than putting iPad in the title is good click bait)? Why not compare it to the Nexus 7, Nook or Fire? Of course c|net would never do that because the whole point of the article is to make iPad mini buyers look like idiots, overpaying for the shiny logo on the back. Because of course the only things that matter are what you can rattle off on a spec sheet.

GermanyChris · Jan 21, 2013

I'm an Apple Fan and I find nothing compelling about this generations iMac so I do't expect the PC industry to either.

aristobrat · Jan 21, 2013

GermanyChris said:
Tablet and phones are cheaper and über trendy.

I don't necessarily disagree there.

But speaking to your "I think apple is a big company now, it can walk and chew gum. i.e. it can give egual time to all it's product lines" comment, I don't see how Apple giving equal time to the other business segments will result in those business segments decreasing the revenue from the iToys' business segments to where Apple doesn't hinge around them.

Rogifan · Jan 21, 2013

GermanyChris said:
Pundits are looking at the sales of tablets and smartphones and going "look people are switching from computers to tablet/pad. The are doing this without regard to A: Fashion and B: Price. Tablet and phones are cheaper and über trendy. Why has the iPad mini that would be a sales flop according the cognoscenti sold because it's cheaper it laughable people talking about how 'heavy" and "cumbersome" the old iPad is.

Does dell write software? does Dell deal in cloud storage? Does Dell sell music?

Dell and HP make computers and that is there core business, Dell and HP are doing fine through enterprise their enterprise sales.

How do you define "doing fine"? HP stock is down 37% over the last 12 months, Dell down 22% and Intel down 18%. The only reason Dell is up in January is because of the rumors the company is going private.

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GermanyChris said:
I'm an Apple Fan and I find nothing compelling about this generations iMac so I do't expect the PC industry to either.

So let me guess, you're one who thinks products like iPod, iPhone and iPad are just toys and were happier when Apple was a niche company just focusing Macs.

Rogifan · Jan 21, 2013

Here's another example: someone on ZDNet giving us the 15 (yes, 15!) reasons they chose the Droid DNA over iPhone 5. http://www.zdnet.com/15-reasons-the-htc-droid-dna-keeps-my-sim-out-of-the-apple-iphone-5-7000009831/

I refused to read them all as they chose to spread them over 15 different pages. But elsewhere we're told Samsung is "rocking it" and the iPhone is in decline, yet ZDNet decided not to compare the DNA to the supposedly hottest phone on the market, they compared it to the phone supposedly in decline that nobody wants anymore. Amazing how a product no longer in demand generates so much attention on tetch sites. More click bait I guess.

GermanyChris · Jan 21, 2013

aristobrat said:
I don't necessarily disagree there.

But speaking to your "I think apple is a big company now, it can walk and chew gum. i.e. it can give egual time to all it's product lines" comment, I don't see how Apple giving equal time to the other business segments will result in those business segments decreasing the revenue from the iToys' business segments to where Apple doesn't hinge around them.

We don't want any to drop in revenue they will do that on there own. When that happens other segments need to be there to take up the slack. That thing would ideally not be tied to HW sales

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Rogifan said:
How do you define "doing fine"? HP stock is down 37% over the last 12 months, Dell down 22% and Intel down 18%. The only reason Dell is up in January is because of the rumors the company is going private.

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So let me guess, you're one who thinks products like iPod, iPhone and iPad are just toys and were happier when Apple was a niche company just focusing Macs.

And how far down is Apple stock? Dell has stayed 12 to 15 dollars for the last five years. I will admit that I prefer niche Apple but that is not the situation any more nor will they return to niche. The Honda and tablet sector will be saturated sooner rather than later the what? Most of their current products get about 80% effort and people see that.

Plutonius · Jan 21, 2013

djtech42 said:
Yes, there are people out there manipulating the stock, but it should have recovered by now.

Not at all. As long as people can get the stock to go lower, people will short the stock. When the stock stops going lower, you will start seeing people saying how Apple is doing great and is such a good buy. Neither the Apple is doomed or Apple is great is entirely accurate. It's just out there to get people to buy and sell Apple stock (i.e. manipulation).

Note: Not all of it is market manipulation. Much of it is from the media creating a story (some of its true. much of it is conjecture). When was the last time you read any mainstream media negative articles about Samsung's phones or Android ?

aristobrat · Jan 21, 2013

djtech42 said:
The stock dropped over $200 since the iPhone 5. People are obviously not confident about the state of the company right now.

Even with the $200 price drop, the stock performed better this year than it did the year before. What does that say about the confidence in the company?

2012: it ended the year up 32%
2011: it ended the year up 26%
2010: it ended the year up 53%
2009: it ended the year up 147%
2008: it ended the year down 57%
2007: it ended the year up 133%
2006: it ended the year up 18%

http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/aaplmonth/

Yes, there are people out there manipulating the stock, but it should have recovered by now.

I don't understand it, but I thought there were billions of dollars to be made by folks if Apple's stock stayed low until January 19th?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1002601-buy-apple-on-january-18

Rogifan · Jan 21, 2013

GermanyChris said:
And how far down is Apple stock? Dell has stayed 12 to 15 dollars for the last five years. I will admit that I prefer niche Apple but that is not the situation any more nor will they return to niche. The Honda and tablet sector will be saturated sooner rather than later the what? Most of their current products get about 80% effort and people see that.

How far down from when? As someone else already posted Apple's stock was up this year, and up more than last year.

golf1410 · Jan 21, 2013

Rogifan said:
How far down from when? As someone else already posted Apple's stock was up this year, and up more than last year.

Their stock is going down since September last year.
Now, they are down 200 $ which is currently about 500 $. While, Google is still 700 $. It was the same price with Google when Apple hit the highest stock. But Apple has more shares than Google.

maxosx · Jan 21, 2013

Stock prices aside, Apple does seem to be a bit like a rudderless ship. In the absence of well hyped rumors of "the next big thing" a phrase Steve Jobs created & promoted. Little did he realize, once they ran out of ideas, or failed to deliver the next big thing based on the publics perception, the ship might grind to a halt.

I am confident Apple will continue to prosper at some level after the current windfall slows, the only question is what they will look like as an organization.

MacNut · Jan 21, 2013

Apple is putting everything into the mobile devices and not backfilling the high end side of the product line. With all of their eggs in one basket they better hope tweens don't find Android anytime soon or the ship will get top heavy and sink.

The other problem is they are not innovating the mobile products anymore either. They like the design and thats fine, the problem is it is getting stale and unless Apple has a huge trick up it's sleeve they will fall further behind. Windows phone is there and a possible resurgence of Blackberry. They are not the only game in town anymore.

Rogifan · Jan 21, 2013

MacNut said:
Apple is putting everything into the mobile devices and not backfilling the high end side of the product line. With all of their eggs in one basket they better hope tweens don't find Android anytime soon or the ship will get top heavy and sink.

The other problem is they are not innovating the mobile products anymore either. They like the design and thats fine, the problem is it is getting stale and unless Apple has a huge trick up it's sleeve they will fall further behind. Windows phone is there and a possible resurgence of Blackberry. They are not the only game in town anymore.

There's that "innovation" word again.

what exactly is all this innovation everyone else is doing that Apple isn't? 5" screens? Widgets?

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golf1410 said:
Their stock is going down since September last year.
Now, they are down 200 $ which is currently about 500 $. While, Google is still 700 $. It was the same price with Google when Apple hit the highest stock. But Apple has more shares than Google.

I don't look at arbitrary time frames. Plus I think AAPL is the most manipulated stock on the market. Someone stood to make a ton of $$ if they got the stock price around $500 and lo and behold it closed on Friday at exactly $500.

MacNut · Jan 21, 2013

Rogifan said:
There's that "innovation" word again. what exactly is all this innovation everyone else is doing that Apple isn't? 5" screens? Widgets?

That's a start. Plus a better OS.

Is Apple's silence killing it right now?

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