That's a reasonable view. Currently, I'm still up overall by 70% with my position in AAPL, but I'm trying to objectively assess how much lower it *could* go. The price drop hasn't made much sense to me, but as long as I'm up, I can take the hit, esp since they pay dividends. From my viewpoint, I don't see how it can go much lower. It's priced well below other tech companies like MSFT and IBM with better growth prospects. In a word - China. I think as they finalize deals with T-mobile and China Mobile, this downward trend will reverse.
In your considerations, recognize how much you can make per share for dividends vs. how much more it could fall. It doesn't have to fall very far to wash out all you can make in dividends.
If I was you, I would put in a trailing stop right now. A trailing stop will bail you out of AAPL if the stock falls to that level (of the stop). You won't have to think about it. You won't have to hope it pops up a little before you exit. Etc. You'll just get out automatically if it falls down to that level.
If AAPL goes up from here, the trailing stop will rise with it. But it will still be in place should AAPL flop back down again, ready to take you out. A typical trailing stop in place on the ride to $700 would have had most people out at around $630-$650 per share. Those flying naked (no downside protection) are always in the "I hope it gets better", "I can't take the loss now", "What if I get out and it runs back up to $700?" paralysis.
All those guys calling this a fantastic buying opportunity, "this is the bottom", it just can't possibly go much lower than this" and so on should be both buying right now and putting in trailing stops a little below this "bottom". If they know what they are talking about, the stop won't be triggered and they will make whatever rise of AAPL is to follow. On the other hand, if they are wrong, they won't have to suffer the further fall much below where they lock in that stop.
70% is a HUGE profit for a stock trader. Consider taking it and actually booking that profit. Hang on hoping for more might yield more... or it might erode it to 50% or 30% or less. There's no profit from investing until one sells and actually books the profit.
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If analysts destroy Apple by making them into a pariah (and yes, perception by itself can steer the herd), then who are Google/SamSung going to copy?
There's a floor. AAPL can't go below a certain level because they have very tangible assets (names a huge wad of cash). AAPL can't be "destroyed" by AAPL falling to- say- $100 or $50 because Apple doesn't need shareholder cash to run its business. Best I know, Apple is interested in buying AAPL stock, not selling more of it to the public. They don't need AAPL at $700 or $50 or $3,000 to be more successful as a company.
If the conspiracy is on to drive AAPL down to some ridiculously cheap price, it's only because those behind the conspiracy are making money on the fall (put option, short sales, etc). And if you actually believe in such conspiracy, then they'll eventually run out of suckers to take the other side of the bearish bet (where they can't make money on a falling AAPL anymore) so they'll then flex their muscles to swing it to the bull side and ride it back up again.
There is no Apple doom in AAPL falling much further from here. In many ways the fortunes of Apple and AAPL are fairly disconnected. Only us shareholders feel "doom" if we are holding a bunch of stock purchased at prices much higher than what they are worth right now. Our profit or losses isn't even a blip on Apple fortune potentials.
