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Apple Again The Second Most Valuable Publicly Traded Company in the World

Rogifan

Rogifan

macrumors Penryn
Nov 14, 2011
24,149
31,205
AnalyzeThis said:
It is normal business on Wall Street - investors simply re-adjust AAPL stock from "growth" category to "value" one.

It is sad so many folks misses what was coming for many months, with plenty of early sell @ decent price opportunities along the way.

Some folks mentioned that Google is better because of it has better revenue sources - right...

It is all about growth of only one thing - THE PROFIT.

Google or any other rapidly growing company will get there sooner or later too and and its stock will get the same treatment as AAPL is getting now.

Something never change...
Click to expand...

Well if its all about profit growth how do you explain Amazon (which was way up again on Friday). Apple has made more profit in one quarter than Amazon has in its entire existence as a company. Yet Amazon is up 47% over the past year. Unless Amazon is heading for a big fall too?
 
KnightWRX

KnightWRX

macrumors Pentium
Jan 28, 2009
15,046
4
Quebec, Canada
Rogifan said:
Well if its all about profit growth how do you explain Amazon (which was way up again on Friday). Apple has made more profit in one quarter than Amazon has in its entire existence as a company. Yet Amazon is up 47% over the past year. Unless Amazon is heading for a big fall too?
Click to expand...

He did explain it, growth stock vs value stock.

Stock value is not something people just "set", it's based on buy/sell orders. Right now, people are massively selling AAPL, which is causing the drop in stock price. People are buying AMZN, so it's going up.

Seems to me you don't understand how the stock market works, and you're trying to blame some invisible force for pulling down AAPL's share price and propping up others.

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archipellago said:
gotta say...yep you were right..
Click to expand...

The pros don't matter. The Macs don't matter. Some of you guys need to take your head out of the cloud. A Mac Pro or matte monitors or FCP/Aperture/Logic won't even dent Apple's bottom line if they disappear or get massively refreshed :

applepiechart.jpg


Look at this chart guys, take it in. PROS DON'T MATTER ANYMORE.. Apple can show them the finger tomorrow, drop the Mac Pro and all their pro software, EOL'ed it all. And it won't change a thing.

In fact, if Apple ever has to "rationalise", expect them to cut all this Pro stuff out first.

archipellago said:
that's the point.....they don't make the best products in the world.
Click to expand...

They make some great products, some the PROs just don't want to use in their line of work. And the quote is "We make the best products we can", not "the best products in the world". The 2nd is a subjective statement that will vary from individual to individual.
 
Oletros

Oletros

macrumors 603
Jul 27, 2009
6,002
60
Premià de Mar
KnightWRX said:
Look at this chart guys, take it in. PROS DON'T MATTER ANYMORE.. Apple can show them the finger tomorrow, drop the Mac Pro and all their pro software, EOL'ed it all. And it won't change a thing.

In fact, if Apple ever has to "rationalise", expect them to cut all this Pro stuff out first.
Click to expand...

Looking at the graph, Mac Pro and software is 1% of the revenue?
 
L

Luis Ortega

macrumors 65816
May 10, 2007
1,139
331
tekno said:
I think this is excellent news.

I'm someone who has started to pull away from Apple (now have a GS3 and am looking at Windows laptops at the moment).

For the last few years Apple have been resting on their laurels - why push their products forward when they can't make then quick enough?!

Hopefully, this fall in share price and investor confidence will make Apple pull their socks up and actually start to bring out some truly great products once again.
Click to expand...

I think that the problem with that is that without Jobs, apple has lost its visionary heart and soul and is now in the hands of corporate types who are no better at creating "truly great products" than any of the other thousands of corporate types at Samsung, Dell, Microsoft or all the rest.
I think people will come to accept that what made apple great was Steve Jobs.
 
S

scupking

macrumors 6502a
Dec 14, 2010
771
358
FrozenDarkness said:
I actually think an iTV makes no sense. why would they put themselves in a money losing business when they could just do it all from a small box like the appletv? I never understood this. what can't you do with an appletv that you can do with a full television?
Click to expand...

I agree 100%
 
iGrip

iGrip

macrumors 68000
Jul 1, 2010
1,626
0
Rogifan said:
Well if its all about profit growth how do you explain Amazon (which was way up again on Friday). Apple has made more profit in one quarter than Amazon has in its entire existence as a company. Yet Amazon is up 47% over the past year. Unless Amazon is heading for a big fall too?
Click to expand...

You don't seem to realize that the rate of change is what is important, and not the absolute value.

Additionally, you don't seem to realize that future prospects are what is important, and not past performance.

Likely there are plenty of other factors accounting for the confusion, but those two are glaringly obvious.

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Hakone said:
I guess I should've shorted at $700. :mad:
Click to expand...

We all should have done that. If only we had time machines!


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chakdey said:
I say the sell will stop at $420. I sure hope cook has something up his sleeve I can't afford any more losses. :(
Click to expand...

If you are confident in your analysis, then sell now and buy back when the price hits $420.
 
iGrip

iGrip

macrumors 68000
Jul 1, 2010
1,626
0
radicalcentrist said:
It'll come back up, though, but it's hard to take right now.
Click to expand...

But if other stocks go up faster, why would you hang onto AAPL? Sure, Apple will hit $700 again, but if it takes 10 or 20 years to appreciate that 40%, then your money might be able to work harder elsewhere.

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Solomani said:
No argument there.

Use the damn cash to BUY things that allow them to leapfrog their competitors who DO NOT have access to as much cash.
Click to expand...


Their best bet may be to use the cash to buy stock in companies that are actually growing their profits. Like IBM and Google and MicroSoft.

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Rogifan said:
Honestly these huge drops every day are just making Wall Street look stupid right now. I mean what really constitutes all this panic selling?
Click to expand...

The panic selling is by people who finally realize just how wrong they have been about Apple's ability to grow profits in the future. Their eyes are now wide open, and they are finally cutting their losses.
 
the8thark

the8thark

macrumors 601
Apr 18, 2011
4,628
1,735
apple-win said:
Does Exxon Mobile have better balance sheet than Apple?

Exxon Mobile is oil company. Apple is a consumer electronic company. For long term investment, Exxon Mobile stock is a better bet than Apple stock.
Click to expand...

What about:
1. oil price volatility
2. The day the oil runs out
3. The gradual movement away from oil

Sure this is a long way away. But exxon's days are constisant but numbered. The opposite of Apple.
 
iGrip

iGrip

macrumors 68000
Jul 1, 2010
1,626
0
bwillwall said:
Oh my gosh if people would stop selling their damn stock it would stop going down! This is insane I don't see people stopping getting scared and selling at this rate just wow
Click to expand...


The selling volume could increase and the stock could still go up. For every share bought, there is a seller. For every share sold, there is a buyer.

The trick is to get the buyers to offer higher prices for the shares in play, rather than offering lower prices.

ONLY if people keep selling their shares is there ANY hope of the stock price increasing. If nobody sold any more shares, the price would stay constant.

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Rogifan said:
I mean what happened with the company since September that would warrant a 40% sell off?
Click to expand...

It has become apparent that profits are not currently growing, and that they are unlikely to grow anywhere near as fast in the future as they once did.

This ***** is very, very basic. It is investing 101.
 
A

AnalyzeThis

macrumors 6502
Sep 8, 2007
443
1
Rogifan said:
Well if its all about profit growth how do you explain Amazon (which was way up again on Friday). Apple has made more profit in one quarter than Amazon has in its entire existence as a company. Yet Amazon is up 47% over the past year. Unless Amazon is heading for a big fall too?
Click to expand...

It is not about absolute figures - it is about: is it going to grow or it would stay flat or God forbid it would decline. Amazon, apparently, has not max their profit, so it safe until AMZN fails to grow its profit.

It almost feels like AAPL should have artificially restricted production to prolong profit growth period, but it would not have worked as consumers would buy an alternative and never look back. AAPL did try to differ this moment by manipulating release dates, but it was inevitable and will make it even more painful as they may report significant drop in profit, just because of they played this "dirty" game with investors earlier.

Here is Apple own profit projection for upcoming quater:
"Sales projections for the second quarter are estimated at $41-$43 billion and a profit drop of about 17%."

Now, try to find someone who would be buying this kind of "bright future growth prospect".

Would you be buying it? Thanks, but no thanks. Well, I thought so...

Low multiples for AAPL was exactly what it should be, investors were absolutely correct. There is no way to dictate high multiples with very short growth period, because of even in 5 years from now, profit will be even less than it was "yesterday". Yet, multiples will be even lower now as there is no growth prospect at all". Do not be surprised of possibility of 1.0, even this would be very generous, because of profit is declining.
 
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D

Digitalclips

macrumors 65816
Mar 16, 2006
1,475
36
Sarasota, Florida
Avatar74 said:
Someone tell me again how Apple is worth $1000 a share even though five quarters forward earnings when they were KILLING IT didn't value them at $580 a share?

Value investing is not fuzzy math, ladies and gents.... there's a reason that Apple's stock price has this much downward elasticity. It's called overvaluation.
Click to expand...

In your own words .... As long as the downward is elastic, as you say, it will bounce back up.Or is that fuzzy physics you are using?
 
Risco

Risco

macrumors 68000
Jul 22, 2010
1,947
262
United Kingdom
AnalyzeThis said:
It is not about absolute figures - it is about: is it going to grow or it would stay flat or God forbid it would decline. Amazon, apparently, has not max their profit, so it safe until AMZN fails to grow its profit.
Click to expand...

Amazon have relatively low profit margins, therefore a small increase in margin will have a very positive effect on profits. In turn the investors / bankers / economists etc. see growth and thus the value of the stock increases. With Apple they have massive margins, unless sales volume increases enough to counteract a drop in margins then their growth will eventually slow and profits flatten. This results in investors panicking as they worry about their dividends or the value of their portfolio and they start selling at a vastly increased rate and thus the share price drops.
 
iGrip

iGrip

macrumors 68000
Jul 1, 2010
1,626
0
eyehop said:
I just had a flashback to 1995 when I was a lone mac user closet case and Win 95 was going to take the world by storm. Who'da thunk?
Click to expand...

The way things are going, by 2015 you might be a lone mac user closet case once again.

Apple makes pretty much nothing selling Macs. The OS wars were over years ago, and MicroSoft won.

Apple is all about shoveling money to Wall Street, and selling Macs is a lousy way to do it. If you haven't noticed, Apple is primarily a telephone manufacturer now.
 
iGrip

iGrip

macrumors 68000
Jul 1, 2010
1,626
0
Avatar74 said:
Well I spent five years studying finance. That was a start. And I've worked as a business analyst for the last six or seven, a corporate metrics guy for close to 15 total.

I don't really advocate individual securities for people who are new to finance and have less than $100k in investible capital. You are not likely to beat the 30 year historical average of the S&P index.... so you're better off sitting on an index fund and letting it do the work for you.
Click to expand...

Of all the posters I've seen here, you make the most sense. Please keep posting.

Yes indeed, Index Funds first, other Mutual Funds next, and individual stocks only if, as and when you can afford to diversify properly.
 
A

AnalyzeThis

macrumors 6502
Sep 8, 2007
443
1
Oletros said:
A profit drop respect 1Q2013 or a profit drop respect 2Q2012?
Click to expand...

17% down compared to 2Q2012 - YOY

Compared to 1Q2013 (the best and the last) - it would be bigger drop, but it is not relevant for very cyclical product segment.

BTW, it may get even worse for 3Q2013 and 4Q2013 until it may get any better in 1Q2014

The only way out of this is to time technical bounces or so called "dead cat bounce" to exit with some grace.
 
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A

AnalyzeThis

macrumors 6502
Sep 8, 2007
443
1
Bubba Satori said:
The last two weeks of November are a classic dead cat bounce.
I wonder how many swallowed that stinky bait?
Click to expand...

Another indicator would be Jim Cramer gives "strong buy" advise for AAPL @ $700. At this moment you know - sell, sell, sell is only thing left to do and you do it quickly.
 
Rogifan

Rogifan

macrumors Penryn
Nov 14, 2011
24,149
31,205
KnightWRX said:
He did explain it, growth stock vs value stock.

Stock value is not something people just "set", it's based on buy/sell orders. Right now, people are massively selling AAPL, which is causing the drop in stock price. People are buying AMZN, so it's going up.

Seems to me you don't understand how the stock market works, and you're trying to blame some invisible force for pulling down AAPL's share price and propping up others.
Click to expand...

I'm responding to the argument that AAPL sold off because of no profit growth, because of profit worries. That's why I ask about a company like Amazon that keeps going up, up and up even though they're not delivering profits. Amazon's revenue growth last year was around 40% but their earnings growth declined 45%. Their P/E ratio is 4,057. Apple's is 10. How in the world does that make any sense? Sure Amazon is growing the top line but where are the profits? Seems to me they're doing exactly what Tim Cook said Apple won't do: grow revenue for revenue's sake.

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AnalyzeThis said:
It is not about absolute figures - it is about: is it going to grow or it would stay flat or God forbid it would decline. Amazon, apparently, has not max their profit, so it safe until AMZN fails to grow its profit.

It almost feels like AAPL should have artificially restricted production to prolong profit growth period, but it would not have worked as consumers would buy an alternative and never look back. AAPL did try to differ this moment by manipulating release dates, but it was inevitable and will make it even more painful as they may report significant drop in profit, just because of they played this "dirty" game with investors earlier.

Here is Apple own profit projection for upcoming quater:
"Sales projections for the second quarter are estimated at $41-$43 billion and a profit drop of about 17%."

Now, try to find someone who would be buying this kind of "bright future growth prospect".

Would you be buying it? Thanks, but no thanks. Well, I thought so...

Low multiples for AAPL was exactly what it should be, investors were absolutely correct. There is no way to dictate high multiples with very short growth period, because of even in 5 years from now, profit will be even less than it was "yesterday". Yet, multiples will be even lower now as there is no growth prospect at all". Do not be surprised of possibility of 1.0, even this would be very generous, because of profit is declining.
Click to expand...
How do you explain a P/E ratio of 4,057 for Amazon? Last year their profit growth declined over 45%. How long are investors going to continue to push up Amazon on the promise of future profits?

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archipellago said:
that's the point.....they don't make the best products in the world.
Click to expand...
Yes because it's really possible for the entire world to come to consensus on who does/doesn't.
 
D

Danoc

macrumors 6502a
Mar 28, 2011
623
1,220
A lot of people missed the opportunity to be rich and famous when it was at 700.

Now we can be rich and famous again.
 
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