That could still happen.... with the next iPad (iPad 5).
I think the February launch date of the 128GB model pretty much rules out an iPad refresh in March, which is fine, because the iPad 4 is already overkill for pretty much every app in the app store.
Wait til fall.
Not so sure about that. That they are releasing an update NOW and not March leads me to think that this is a move to push the last generation 4's and use up parts inventory since all they have to do is put in more capacity flash chips at the factory to do this update. That the back shell of the iPad5 is so complete makes me think they have most of it done. It could have the A6X in the latest smaller die size (28, 26 mm ??) which would be smaller and use less power so not as much battery would be needed.
I tend to think this release now makes it more likely we will see an event in late March or early April for the real new iPad.
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