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Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q2 2013 Earnings Call

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MacRumors

macrumors bot
Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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Philip Elmer-Dewitt has assembled his quarterly list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 67 analysts: 26 "independent" and 41 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

This is one of the most important earnings calls of Apple CEO Tim Cook's tenure as CEO. Apple's stock price is down significantly from its highs of last year, and investors are concerned about Apple's growth prospects across both existing and new product lines.

q22013.jpg
Typically, the amateur analysts expect significantly higher revenue and earnings than the professionals, but Elmer-Dewitt notes the gap is less than usual this time. The independent consensus has Apple just beating its guidance, while the pro's are expecting Apple to hit near the middle of its range.
The pros, as usual, are more cautious than the independents -- but not that much. The gap between the two group's average estimates (summarized above) as as close as I've ever seen them, with the amateurs calling for revenues only 1.3% higher than professionals.
Click to expand...
In the first quarter, the company earned $13.1 billion in profit on revenue of $54.5 billion.

Last quarter Apple changed how it provides guidance, choosing to offer a range of guidance for what the company believes it can achieve, rather than a point prediction. Apple provided guidance for the second quarter for revenue of between $41 and $43 billion and gross margin between 37.5% and 38.5%.

Apple will announce its earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 2013 (first calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

Article Link: Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q2 2013 Earnings Call
 
Article Link
https://www.macrumors.com/2013/04/23/roundup-of-analyst-expectations-ahead-of-q2-2013-earnings-call/
impulse462

impulse462

macrumors 68020
Jun 3, 2009
2,085
2,872
In b4 Apple is doomed because it didn't meet Wall Street's expectations but still made billions of dollars.
 
Chupa Chupa

Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,835
7,396
impulse462 said:
In b4 Apple is doomed because it didn't meet Wall Street's expectations but still made billions of dollars.
Click to expand...

You don't seem to understand investors. They are not fan boys. They invest their money in hopes it will grow, not stagnate. So just because Apple makes billions if it's not making billions more quarter over quarter, i.e., growing, that's NOT a good thing.
 
Kaibelf

Kaibelf

Suspended
Apr 29, 2009
2,445
7,444
Silicon Valley, CA
impulse462 said:
In b4 Apple is doomed because it didn't meet Wall Street's expectations but still made billions of dollars.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I know of no other business that is called "doomed" because they "only" pull in margins above 35% every time, when others pull in something like 5% and are treated like the Second Coming.

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Chupa Chupa said:
You don't seem to understand investors. They are not fan boys. They invest their money in hopes it will grow, not stagnate. So just because Apple makes billions if it's not making billions more quarter over quarter, i.e., growing, that's NOT a good thing.
Click to expand...

Wrong. They want their money to double RIGHT NOW instead of exercising the patience that a sensible person would. That's why Warren Buffet plays the long game and reaps amazing success, and these other airchair experts are little more than get-rich-quick-demanding fools.
 
pgiguere1

pgiguere1

macrumors 68020
May 28, 2009
2,167
1,200
Montreal, Canada
Chupa Chupa said:
You don't seem to understand investors. They are not fan boys. They invest their money in hopes it will grow, not stagnate. So just because Apple makes billions if it's not making billions more quarter over quarter, i.e., growing, that's NOT a good thing.
Click to expand...

Last quarters, the stock didn't drop because revenues didn't grow, it dropped because the growth of revenues didn't grow. They expect Apple's revenues to grow exponentially since that's what we've been accustomed to in recent years.

Even if Apple has, by a large margin, the highest profit share in 3 of the most profitable industries on earth (computers, smartphones and tablets), they're expected to continue growing very fast by introducing new super-profitable categories and again, grabbing most of their profits while said categories grow exponentially. All that without losing profit share in past categories while they also continue to grow. Easy task eh?

Meanwhile, companies like Amazon see their stock going up while they report no profit at all.
 
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UnfetteredMind

UnfetteredMind

macrumors 6502
Jun 6, 2012
451
77
I'm sure I'm stupid and not understanding, but I thought orders were off, component suppliers were down, etc so how/why is it that analysts expectations seem to align with Apple's expectations for the quarter?
 
B

BMNB1tch

macrumors regular
Jan 20, 2009
135
0
pgiguere1 said:
Meanwhile, Amazon's stock is going up while they report no profit at all.
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I shop at Amazon nearly weekly, $25-50 of books and household supplies

Vastly different than a once every 5 years-computer / 3 years-mobile phone
 
alfistas

alfistas

macrumors regular
Jun 28, 2012
191
0
Helios Prime
UnfetteredMind said:
I'm sure I'm stupid and not understanding, but I thought orders were off, component suppliers were down, etc so how/why is it that analysts expectations seem to align with Apple's expectations for the quarter?
Click to expand...

Apple ALWAYS exceeds expectations, even when you don't expect all that much from them...
 
spyguy10709

spyguy10709

macrumors 65816
Apr 5, 2010
1,007
659
One Infinite Loop, Cupertino CA
BMNB1tch said:
I shop at Amazon nearly weekly, $25-50 of books and household supplies

Vastly different than a once every 5 years-computer / 3 years-mobile phone
Click to expand...
Yeah. Everyone in the world could buy everything they would need EVER, EVERYDAY And Amazin wouldn't make more than 10 billion dollars per quarter. The reason why is amazons net margin - 0.8%. They make NOTHING. it's all "SOMEDAY" we'll raise margins. It's a rediculous notion, and the stock will suffer in the next 5 years if they keep it up.
 
Y

you people smh

macrumors regular
Oct 20, 2011
151
0
pgiguere1 said:
Last quarters, the stock didn't drop because revenues didn't grow, it dropped because the growth of revenues didn't grow. They expect Apple's revenues to grow exponentially since that's what we've been accustomed to in recent years.

Even if Apple has, by a large margin, the highest profit share in 3 of the most profitable industries on earth (computers, smartphones and tablets), they're expected to continue growing very fast by introducing new super-profitable categories and again, grabbing most of their profits while said categories grow exponentially. All that without losing profit share in past categories while they also continue to grow. Easy task eh?

Meanwhile, companies like Amazon see their stock going up while they report no profit at all.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

Their growth slowed so they are no longer valued at $700/share (which was the accepted price for the exponential growth that you yourself admit we've grown accustomed to in recent years). Why then is it a surprise that when actual growth comes in lower than expected, that the stock would be worth less?

In any case, expect this stock to drop like it's a call on an iphone in about 3 hours.
 
Michael Scrip

Michael Scrip

macrumors 604
Mar 4, 2011
7,929
12,480
NC
BMNB1tch said:
I shop at Amazon nearly weekly, $25-50 of books and household supplies

Vastly different than a once every 5 years-computer / 3 years-mobile phone
Click to expand...

Amazon is a seller of other people's stuff. If Amazon sells a $1000 Sony TV... only a teeny tiny part of that goes to Amazon.

That's why retailers like Amazon can have billions in revenue... but only have millions in actual profit.

Of your $50 in household purchases... Amazon maybe gets 50 cents in profit (I'm guessing, obviously, but you get the point)

Apple could theoretically make more money from you buying one iPhone every 3 years than Amazon makes from your weekly purchases over the same 3 years.
 
jrswizzle

jrswizzle

macrumors 603
Aug 23, 2012
6,107
129
McKinney, TX
Well, I see a "We exceeded expectations" call coming.....

promptly followed by Apple stock dropping below $300 and people crying "their doomed, their doomed!"
 
baryon

baryon

macrumors 68040
Oct 3, 2009
3,878
2,929
I don't understand the point of "analyst expectations", can't they just sit still, wait patiently and find out with 100% certainty very soon?
 
T

troop231

macrumors 603
Jan 20, 2010
5,822
553
It's been exactly 6 months since the last Apple event, something needs to happen soon!
 
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