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Supply Chain Performance Points to Blockbuster Holiday Quarter for Apple

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MacRumors

macrumors bot
Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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In a new research note published today, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White shares data from his "Apple Barometer" for the month of November, with strong increases hinting that Apple will see blockbuster performance for the holiday quarter. White's metric, which tracks performance of Taiwanese suppliers known to be heavily reliant on Apple, has seen record performances for both October and November.
With approximately 97% of the sales now accounted for in our Apple Barometer, we estimate sales in November rose by approximately 19-20% M/M and well above the November average of up 6% over the past eight years. As such, we believe this November will prove to be the strongest in the history of our Apple Barometer. [...]

Given the combination of a record October performance and our expectation of record growth in November, our Apple Barometer is on track to report stronger-than- average seasonality in 4Q:13. If we assume an average MoM sales decline of 10% in December, we estimate our Apple Barometer will grow sales by 28% QoQ in 4Q:13, or more than double the average increase of 13% over the past eight years.
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White attributes the strong performance by Apple's supply chain to robust demand for Apple products such as the new iPhone and iPad models, with an iPhone production boost to support a launch on China Mobile in the coming weeks perhaps also contributing.

Investor confidence in Apple is also increasing as the company appears poised for a strong holiday quarter. After falling significantly from late 2012 through the early part of this year, Apple's stock has been rebounding during the second half of 2013, setting a new 52-week high yesterday following a roughly 10% surge over the past two weeks. Like White's reasoning for strong Apple Barometer performance, the recent Apple stock spike has coincided with evidence of strong consumer interest in the company's products for the holiday shopping season, as well as the potential culmination of an iPhone deal with China Mobile, the world's largest carrier.

Article Link: Supply Chain Performance Points to Blockbuster Holiday Quarter for Apple
 
Article Link
https://www.macrumors.com/2013/12/06/supply-chain-performance-points-to-blockbuster-holiday-quarter-for-apple/
A

akm3

macrumors 68020
Nov 15, 2007
2,252
279
As good as news as this sounds, it worries me as an investor to put any stock in 'supply chain checks' positive or negative.

That said, with the massive amount of refreshing that was done, I would be surprised if this isn't a blow-out record blockbuster quarter.
 
Rogifan

Rogifan

macrumors Penryn
Nov 14, 2011
24,124
31,156
And yet AAPL is down almost 1% today even though the broader market is up today on good jobs figures. Go figure.
 
M

mpantone

macrumors 6502
Mar 20, 2009
450
0
Investors are weenies.

That said, it should be clearly pointed out that Tim Cook says that predicting Apple's future based on the supply chain is unwise.

All MacRumors posts about the supply chain should have this notation.​
 
Rogifan

Rogifan

macrumors Penryn
Nov 14, 2011
24,124
31,156
AdeFowler said:
My thoughts exactly. I’ll never understand the stock market.
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Hard for me to understand because I'm a long term investor. Apparently most AAPL investors aren't.

----------
mpantone said:
Investors are weenies.

That said, it should be clearly pointed out that Tim Cook says that predicting Apple's future based on the supply chain is unwise.

All MacRumors posts about the supply chain should have this notation.​
Click to expand...
Then the same disclamer should come with IDC and other market share posts.
 
Small White Car

Small White Car

macrumors G4
Aug 29, 2006
10,966
1,463
Washington DC
mpantone said:
That said, it should be clearly pointed out that Tim Cook says that predicting Apple's future based on the supply chain is unwise.
Click to expand...

You're taking this quote out of context.

It was a reply to the people who try to guess which products are doing better than other products based on specific news stories. He's right, you can't tell what's happening to the forrest by looking at the trees. There are too many moving parts.

But this specific story is about how output is high at all the factories. How everything is busy. The article isn't trying to drill down into that to say one product is doing x or y or z. It's just saying that overall, things are busy.

So yes, "you can't see the forrest for the trees" is generally good advice and it's what Tim was saying. But that doesn't apply when someone notes that the whole forrest is on fire.
 
M

mpantone

macrumors 6502
Mar 20, 2009
450
0
Rogifan said:
Then the same disclamer should come with IDC and other market share posts.
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Absolutely.

And all posts about financial analysts should indicate if the analyst quoted has a good track record (Gene Munster = NO) and if they are a StarMine rated analyst.

Sadly, MacRumors makes almost no effort in analyzing and identifying the accuracy of data sources, whether they be some drive-by rumor monger, or a longtime industry fixture like Munster, IDC, etc.
 
KdParker

KdParker

macrumors 601
Oct 1, 2010
4,793
998
Everywhere
So all the iPhone5s purchases that got delivery pushed to October and beyond will count as 4th quarter sales too?
 
Small White Car

Small White Car

macrumors G4
Aug 29, 2006
10,966
1,463
Washington DC
Rogifan said:
Hard for me to understand because I'm a long term investor. Apparently most AAPL investors aren't.
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Well, the actual problem is that there are two overlapping markets, they just happen to buy the same stocks.

There's individuals like you and me who buy companies with our own money based on how we view the future of those companies. Based on the people I talk to I don't think people like us have done much over the last 4 years. Everyone I know just keeps holding onto their shares.

If we were all there was, it would be a very stable stock.

But we're overlaid with the other kind of investor: The fund manager. This is a guy responsible for billions of dollars of other people's money. Like, say, a pension manager for a city government or large company. It's not his job to get a huge return, but rather to hit a specific (but safe) annual return.

Those are the guys that pumped a ton of money into Apple and shot it up to $700. They're also the guys who moved on at that point because it wasn't going to go much higher. And that was the right move for those guys. They didn't do anything wrong. It's not their job to invest in companies long term, it's their job to protect their own business' money.

But what that does is rock the ocean for you and me. We own sailboats and they're oil tankers. And we're all playing in the same pool. And when they stand up it has a big effect on the water level.
 
P

proline

macrumors 6502a
Nov 18, 2012
630
1
Can't wait to see the haters spin this into bad news. iOS7 and Mavericks are taking Apple to new highs.
 
M

milo

macrumors 604
Sep 23, 2003
6,891
522
It seemed like the big challenge this quarter would be producing enough supply of the 5s and retina mini to meet demand. 5s seems to be catching up, I wonder if mini production has ramped up enough or if Apple is selling enough of the other models that that one constrained product doesn't matter that much.

I don't think anyone is surprised that the new mini, iPad air, and 5s are selling great, just that they've been able to meet demand for them.
 
keysofanxiety

keysofanxiety

macrumors G3
Nov 23, 2011
9,539
25,302
Small White Car said:
You're taking this quote out of context.

It was a reply to the people who try to guess which products are doing better than other products based on specific news stories. He's right, you can't tell what's happening to the forrest by looking at the trees. There are too many moving parts.

But this specific story is about how output is high at all the factories. How everything is busy. The article isn't trying to drill down into that to say one product is doing x or y or z. It's just saying that overall, things are busy.

So yes, "you can't see the forrest for the trees" is generally good advice and it's what Tim was saying. But that doesn't apply when someone notes that the whole forrest is on fire.
Click to expand...

I know correcting grammar/spelling on MR is considered to be rude, so please don't take offense. It's just that reading this comment made me want to drop-kick a puppy.

It's forest.
 
IJ Reilly

IJ Reilly

macrumors P6
Jul 16, 2002
17,909
1,496
Palookaville
Small White Car said:
Well, the actual problem is that there are two overlapping markets, they just happen to buy the same stocks.

There's individuals like you and me who buy companies with our own money based on how we view the future of those companies. Based on the people I talk to I don't think people like us have done much over the last 4 years. Everyone I know just keeps holding onto their shares.

If we were all there was, it would be a very stable stock.

But we're overlaid with the other kind of investor: The fund manager. This is a guy responsible for billions of dollars of other people's money. Like, say, a pension manager for a city government or large company. It's not his job to get a huge return, but rather to hit a specific (but safe) annual return.

Those are the guys that pumped a ton of money into Apple and shot it up to $700. They're also the guys who moved on at that point because it wasn't going to go much higher. And that was the right move for those guys. They didn't do anything wrong. It's not their job to invest in companies long term, it's their job to protect their own business' money.

But what that does is rock the ocean for you and me. We own sailboats and they're oil tankers. And we're all playing in the same pool. And when they stand up it has a big effect on the water level.
Click to expand...

This is true, but read through any given thread here on AAPL and you'll see plenty of individual investors (and probably also a lot of non-investors, but that's another story) telling us, with absolute confidence, when is the best time to buy and sell the stock. Whether they are really playing the trading game themselves or not, they're certainly encouraging others to pretend that they're smarter than the big institutional traders, and the markets as a whole. They, or anyone who follows their advice, are cruising for a bruising.
 
B

Boomchukalaka

macrumors regular
Jun 12, 2009
111
4
So iPad Mini Retina models are constrained, but there ARE plenty of Retina iPad Air models available that start at about $100 more...yeah, it's gonna be a pretty "green" Christmas season for shareholders...
 
M

mpantone

macrumors 6502
Mar 20, 2009
450
0
Go to an Apple Store and play with a Retini Mini. There are plenty of Apple Stores in the greater Los Angeles area (where you claim to be located).

That way, you can form your own opinion about whether or not the new Retina Mini would be something that you'd use.

Good luck with your purchase decision.
 
Rogifan

Rogifan

macrumors Penryn
Nov 14, 2011
24,124
31,156
Small White Car said:
You're taking this quote out of context.

It was a reply to the people who try to guess which products are doing better than other products based on specific news stories. He's right, you can't tell what's happening to the forrest by looking at the trees. There are too many moving parts.

But this specific story is about how output is high at all the factories. How everything is busy. The article isn't trying to drill down into that to say one product is doing x or y or z. It's just saying that overall, things are busy.

So yes, "you can't see the forrest for the trees" is generally good advice and it's what Tim was saying. But that doesn't apply when someone notes that the whole forrest is on fire.
Click to expand...

I thought his comments were more about suppliers/components than specific Apple products. That you can't take one data point within the supply chain and make conclusions on it.
 
citi

citi

macrumors 65816
May 2, 2006
1,363
508
Simi Valley, CA
iomar said:
I have the first Generation iPad Mini. I am not sure if I should upgrade to new iPad Mini.
Click to expand...

Then I would not suggest going in to apple and touching it. I did. I brought my mini in and compared it side by side, app by app. The display itself is better, but I wouldn't say it's earth shattering over the original mini. It's a more subtle enhancement. Smaller text is clearer and blown up images have less pixelation. Colors are exactly the same, unlike the iPad 2 to 3 or 4 where there was an added level of richness in the color spectrum. Not a deal breaker to me in keeping my original mini.

The speed however, is night and day. Everything opens and loads signiificantly faster. It's more responsive and the main reason I'm upgrading. So if you don't want to upgrade, don't go in to Apple.
 
H

hansonjohn590

macrumors 6502
Sep 14, 2013
353
4
keysofanxiety said:
I know correcting grammar/spelling on MR is considered to be rude, so please don't take offense. It's just that reading this comment made me want to drop-kick a puppy.

It's forest.
Click to expand...

Reading this comment makes me want to drop-kick a kitten.

It's one ****ing extra letter, if it bothers you that much just PM the poster instead of making a comment.

Don't people have any common sense these days?
 
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