Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Let's check in 2017, we will see if Dediu is right.
Can anyone calculate market share for the other brands?
Can anyone calculate market share for the other brands?
Exactly. This is precisely the sort of chart that Blackberry execs were looking at circa 2007, and congratulating themselves at having achieved total world domination by 2012.
Completely anecdotal but when every I see people whipping out there phone in a public place 60% of the time it's an iPhone, 30%Android Phablets & the remaining something else. So I can see where the extrapolation might bear some reality.
The iPhone is still the "it" phone for kids in middle/high school & business has adopted iOS in far more instances than Windows Phone or Android so the base seems to have a solid footing. In a few years it's likely that iOS & Android will be the only ones standing & all the feature phone/win phone/BB folks will have to move to iOS or Android.
----------
Very true, but for now Apple is making enough incremental changes to remain relevant. BB & Palms downfall was that they didn't freshen up the interface or update feature set until they already bled too much market share.
The iPhone is still the "it" phone for kids in middle/high school & business has adopted iOS in far more instances than Windows Phone or Android so the base seems to have a solid footing. In a few years it's likely that iOS & Android will be the only ones standing & all the feature phone/win phone/BB folks will have to move to iOS or Android.
----------
Very true, but for now Apple is making enough incremental changes to remain relevant. BB & Palms downfall was that they didn't freshen up the interface or update feature set until they already bled too much market share.
My mom bought an iPhone 5c a week ago. I'm still kinda shocked she got a cell phone in the first place a couple years ago. I didn't even think she used the thing very often. Then all of a sudden, she asks if I thought she should get a smartphone.
I told her to get an iPhone since that is what I have. It will make it easier for me to help her use the thing. Especially since most of the time I'll be helping her is over the phone since we don't live all that close to each other.
I told her to get an iPhone since that is what I have. It will make it easier for me to help her use the thing. Especially since most of the time I'll be helping her is over the phone since we don't live all that close to each other.
YEAH MAN GAME OVER! No need for any other device! Apple for life. Amirite?
..............
Yes and maybe no. The downfall of RIM came about so quickly because the game changer iPhone was released. For Apple to suffer the same fate, something equally as game changing would have to come out, followed by no response to the changing market place by Apple. This could easily happen slowly, chunk by chunk, over time (like some argue is starting to happen) but very unlikely that it would be as dramatic as it was for RIM.
A no contract Galaxy S4 is $639 from AT&T. A no contract iPhone 5s is $649 from Apple directly. The price difference is negligible at best. If you're buying the two year contract... they are exactly the same. So... I guess since you already recognize that Apple is the (at least marginally) better solution, there's no reason to buy anything else!
Of course, that's not really true either. There's a reason there are so many different phones. It isn't strictly a cost decision. Lots of people like Android phones for their differing feature sets, both from each other and from the iPhone. Different strokes for different folks, you know? There will always be room for many devices because there are many types of users and use cases. I'm glad they all exist. It's a good time to enjoy technology.
He's showing his homework (model) and how he derived it using existing data. Obviously, there may be data that he isn't looking and/or new data can come out (the next phone from apple or samsung or google can boom or bust).
The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.
.
The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.
.
He's showing his homework (model) and how he derived it using existing data. Obviously, there may be data that he isn't looking and/or new data can come out (the next phone from apple or samsung or google can boom or bust).
The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.
.
----------
He's showing his homework (model) and how he derived it using existing data. Obviously, there may be data that he isn't looking and/or new data can come out (the next phone from apple or samsung or google can boom or bust).
The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.
----------
sorry major network problems.
The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.
.
----------
He's showing his homework (model) and how he derived it using existing data. Obviously, there may be data that he isn't looking and/or new data can come out (the next phone from apple or samsung or google can boom or bust).
The most important thing is that we have an analyst that shows their work and it's not just guesswork ... So now we can debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the model as opposes to speculating on someone's speculations.
----------
sorry major network problems.
But his work is just guesswork, he has only applied a linear regression because it fits what he likes, nothing more.
Where is the data from 2007 to October 2008? Where is the expected market share for the other operating systems?
Look. We need an analysts making outrageously bullish claims to balance out other analysts' making outrageously bearish ones.
This guys graph seems less kooky to me than does the New York Times' reports that Apple is doing very badly right now, when in fact Apple just had the best November in the history of any large technology company.
This guys graph seems less kooky to me than does the New York Times' reports that Apple is doing very badly right now, when in fact Apple just had the best November in the history of any large technology company.
Popularity of high end Samsung smartphones and phablets will plummet once Apple introduces larges displays on future iPhones and phablets. Larger screen is the main reason people buy them.
There's also the freedom aspect of android but these will be interesting times.
I doubt it will be 68%. More so if US carriers do like AT&T mentioned last week and get rid of phone subsidies.
Smartphones have pretty much reached a maturity like PC's.
There is little reason to spend a high amount when something cheaper and just as good will do. You have Nexus & Moto G and I'm pretty sure soon other companies will produce a quality phone in the $350-400 price line.
All the smartphones can talk,text, surf, instagram,facebook, twitter and whatever else. Having a crazy fast cpu/gpu in the phone will mean very little unless you're gaming and even that will flat line after a while.
I actually see the smartphone market probably leveling off to what will basically be a tie.
Smartphones have pretty much reached a maturity like PC's.
There is little reason to spend a high amount when something cheaper and just as good will do. You have Nexus & Moto G and I'm pretty sure soon other companies will produce a quality phone in the $350-400 price line.
All the smartphones can talk,text, surf, instagram,facebook, twitter and whatever else. Having a crazy fast cpu/gpu in the phone will mean very little unless you're gaming and even that will flat line after a while.
I actually see the smartphone market probably leveling off to what will basically be a tie.
My mom has an iPhone 4S and while she likes it, she's ALWAYS calling me for help. Conversely, my in-laws tried the iPhone 5C for a few days before returning them for HTC One's because everything on the (much) larger display was easier to read.
yep, good thing Apple execs are not looking at charts, there just making superior products.
Horace has earned his creds, but if you don't like his analysis, point out where it is incorrect on asymco.com. Still, it's analysis, not guesswork unless you can prove otherwise.
Is it just me or does that yellow line look like the path of a ball when you throw it into the airmoments before it peaks and then comes plummeting back down to earth?
That yellow line curves because this isn't a linear scale. It curves more than the red one, as it is higher up in the y-axis.
You have to look at the graph to know how it is flawed.
A hint, there is more than just an operating system, thing that he has missed because if he does the numbers for the others he will have a market share way greater than 100%. He has not analysed anything, he has just played with numbers and has make a guesswork with the numbers that he has liked more.