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Posting for future clam chowder. I love how Gruber gives his reasons (whether right or wrong) for his conclusions and so many armchairs here exclaim that he is crazy and leave it at that with no rebuttal, no claims of their own.
 
I think he is missing the boat on this one. Except on the Gold Model... and possibly on the availability of bands to purchase separately.

The WSJ has said Apple is speculated to produce 5-6 million of these devices for launch. 5-6 MILLION.

Think about it. Apple typically builds not enough devices for launch.... to create demand. So they are expecting to sell out of 5-6 million at launch.. and then sell millions more of the rest of the year.

People are not going to be being 5-6+ million of these things at the prices Gruber is quoting. This isn't a utility device that people use all day long like an iPhone... people are not going to be able to justify it for a watch... especially in a world where most iPhone users are wearing Fossil price range watches. The market isn't there.

I think it will be $350 to $700 for the Sport and Stainless models.. all band types. Maybe $1000 max for the best stainless with the best band... but even that sounds crazy to me. Who knows, or cares for that matter, what the Gold Models will be.

Look at how Apple Marketed it at the announcement and on their website. Average people wearing these things... It can't be at the price points gruber is talking about. Apple is not stupid enough to think a bunch of people are going to buy the base model with a rubber wrist band and wear it to an office and think it is "ok" for business wear of most of the middle class.

He missed this boat on price.

Well said. My thoughts exactly. $500 for a nice steel watch for me with a matching band is where I want to be.
 
I am going to buy the Watch with the cheapest strap option, and then I will buy a nicer strap from a third party manufacturer once there are some good offers.

I want a leather strap, but after the disaster with the iPhone 6 Plus case made from "high-quality leather" that didn't even last for six weeks of normal use, I am not going to buy another leather product from Apple.
 
I made this speculative price list based in large part on Gruber's speculation:

watch_price_list.png
 
The thing is that if you buy a $10K designer watch in 10 years it will have deprecated very little and may have even gained in value.

A $10K piece of technology in 10 years is generally worth very little.

So don't know what merging of the two will bring.

A Rolex, for example, appeals to a wider market that may includes those with less than astronomical wealth, because it has timeless style and appreciates in value. A pre-owned Submariner purchased 20 years ago for $2000 can be easily sold today for $4000+. Meanwhile, the owner enjoyed wearing the watch for 20 years.

A gold smartphone will not have the same appeal. It will only attract people with ridiculous amounts of disposable income for whom $10K is an impulse buy. That's not the sort of mindset that generally builds wealth, so I suspect the customer base will be heavily weighted with drug dealers, celebrities, and lotto winners. Think Bieber and Kardashian, not Soros or Buffet.

Rather distasteful business, I think, but evidently an irresistible opportunity for Apple.
 
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I really doubt that Apple will have 12 different pricing tiers depending on the color of the watch etc. It would make it difficult for the end users to understand.
 
I am going to buy the Watch with the cheapest strap option, and then I will buy a nicer strap from a third party manufacturer once there are some good offers.

I want a leather strap, but after the disaster with the iPhone 6 Plus case made from "high-quality leather" that didn't even last for six weeks of normal use, I am not going to buy another leather product from Apple.

I agree.. I bought the leather case for my wife's iphone5s when it came out... it was scuffed and pretty dingy looking after only a month of use.
 
The Apple Watch Edition isn't for people who think like you. It's for big spenders who want a smart watch that is also a luxury watch, that says "I'm better than you." It doesn't sound nice, but it's the mentality of people who are willing to drop $10k on a time piece.

There is already an after market that takes iPhones and swaps out the covers for high end materials: gold, platinum, etc. If the Watch Edition does well, I could see future iPhones being offered with luxury options.

And look at the auto market. Lamborghini doesn't sell a lot of cars each year. But they make a killing on the ones they do. Most Apple Watch sales will be around the $350 price point, but the Watch Edition will have a killer profit margin.

Lamborghini don’t update the Murciélago every year and spend all their time effectively telling you how the one you bought a couple of years ago is outdated or unsupported.
 
Only somebody with more money than sense would pay $20k for an Apple Watch, the market size would be tiny. Apple would be rightly ridiculed.

'But top level watches cost that much' I hear you cry. The big difference is that a $20k watch from a reputable brand lasts 50 years. The Apple Watch has an effective life span of one year until the next model comes out.
 
If i do end up buying a watch from Apple it'll be because they've broke the mould and done something different. It would be a shame if they designed a groundbreaking watch and then applied the same old tired sales logic found in the current watch industry. I doubt they will do this.

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Only somebody with more money than sense would pay $20k for an Apple Watch, the market size would be tiny. Apple would be rightly ridiculed.

'But top level watches cost that much' I hear you cry. The big difference is that a $20k watch from a reputable brand lasts 50 years. The Apple Watch has an effective life span of one year until the next model comes out.

Yep, this.
 
If i do end up buying a watch from Apple it'll be because they've broke the mould and done something different. It would be a shame if they designed a groundbreaking watch and then applied the same old tired sales logic found in the current watch industry. I doubt they will do this.

Why not? They are marketing it in high end shops like any high end watch. I think they are definitely positioning their product as a high end fashion watch.
 
Gold Strap?

Will apple come up with solid gold link strap and make a decent profit? I hope they sell a lot of top end watches to subsidize Macs :)
 
$10,000 is a bargain if you don't think about it.

No, it isn't. I would define something as a bargain if a) it provides immense utility to the owner exceeding its purchase price or b) it has enduring or appreciating value over time. A $10-20K gold smart watch with less than $2K worth of gold and electronics that will be obsolete in a few short years offers neither.
 
Short version: I know nothing, so I'll just randomly guess with no real logic behind it.

Remember back when people were SWEARING up and down that the iPad would be $1200 to start? They ended up looking like total fools.

Well, it's not costing that and the sales are plummeting nevertheless
 
Most of you here are missing the point. The high price of Rolex and Cartier watches is a feature, not a bug. The price of luxury watches has almost no connection to the cost of manufacture. People buy them so that you'll know what kind of cash they have to splash around.

In fact, a lot of the target market might turn up their nose if the Apple Watch Edition isn't expensive enough. Rolex would never dream of putting their watches on sale, lest people speculate the only reason you could afford one is because you "got a deal".

And if it's a watch that's only top-of-the-line for a year, so much the better! What's better than being able to afford a $10k watch? Being able to afford a new one every single year.

This makes no sense at all to normal people, but this is how rich people operate. The Edition watch is for rich people, not normal people. It will be priced accordingly.
 
I'm not planning on buying the gold version one way or the other, but $10,000-$20,000 sounds insanely high. Sure they would sell a few to people who want to brag about spending that much to own something so exclusive, but Apple would likely make more money selling them at a more reasonable price.

Personally I'm liking the Space Black Sport with the black band. Might go for the Space Black stainless steel watch with the link bracelet if the price difference is not that big.
 
I made this speculative price list based in large part on Gruber's speculation:

Image

I think you're not far from the mark. Your prices for the Edition may be a bit too low.

I think the black Stainless Steel with link bracelet will cost more than the silver. Perhaps $100-$150 more. The DLC surface treatment isn't free to make and I think it will justify a higher price.
 
The idea of a smartwatch costing $20k implies to me that there would be a significant market in upgrading the internals as time goes on. If you could (for a much smaller figure) take your Edition into an Apple Store and get the insides swapped out for the version 2 or version 3 workings (along with a new battery and whatever other gizmos they have) then it makes more sense. A bit.

The point is that you can't compare these watches with a Rolex or similar unless you can guarantee that they will last 50 years, and still be repairable even then.
 
Will apple come up with solid gold link strap and make a decent profit? I hope they sell a lot of top end watches to subsidize Macs :)

Yeah but what if this business becomes so profitable that they abandon the tech and consumer electronics market some day and become nothing more than a high priced fashion label for the 1%?
 
For anything even close to $7,000.... I'd buy a Rolex. There is no way I'd ever pay thousands of dollars for a smart watch.

A steel Rolex, maybe, but not a solid gold one. At least not new. Steel Submariner list price starts around $7500, two-tone (some gold) starts at $13,500, and solid gold starts at $34,250. How about the Datejust? $6,200, $9,050, $18,700 for gold with a leather band, or around $27,000 for gold with a gold bracelet (couldn't find the pricing for a new one, but that was the list for the last model). Dealers will cut some off of the list price, but gold watches are ludicrously expensive.
 
The more I think about this watch, the more I think that they are going to surprise us with longevity. Maybe the watch cases will allow you to swap in new internals every few years for the cost of the basic watch plus some labor. If Apple makes $5k on a $15k watch and then makes an additional $500 every year to update that watch to the latest version, it's still a pretty great profit center.
 
Only somebody with more money than sense would pay $20k for an Apple Watch, the market size would be tiny. Apple would be rightly ridiculed.

'But top level watches cost that much' I hear you cry. The big difference is that a $20k watch from a reputable brand lasts 50 years. The Apple Watch has an effective life span of one year until the next model comes out.

High-end luxury watches hold their value, but only if they are pampered and maintained.

A Rolex that's been beat up, cracked, scratched, and gone a decade or two without cleaning and maintenance will lose most of its value. Maintenance is NOT cheap on a fine watch.

"Pass it on to your grandchild" is an ideal, and I suspect many fine watches don't last that long, in good working order, in the real world.
 
This "it is a fashion thing, not a tech thing" is a garbage argument to justify the absurd.

If these sky-high prices come to pass, the market will be so full of forgeries that you probably couldn't even trust the "Edition" ones you buy from an Apple store (or where ever the "Edition" models will be sold eventually ;))
 
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