Re: Tech sector takes a hit
Originally posted by Kyle?
http://money.cnn.com/2003/05/08/technology/techwrap/
What's funny is that at the very end they mention apple as the only bright spot all day. Things are lookin' up! I told you that music store would be a cash cow!
On the credit side, if you had bought shares in Apple last Friday through a broker say at under $15, you could have sold them today at $18 and be expecting a nice cheque in the post, nothing spent out.
The Salaman Barney character or whatever his name is, valued the iTunes Musi Store at an extra $3 a share for Apple and put $18 as the tops. They are $18.30 at the moment - and who knows, they may still be rising. Merryl Lynch said there was little subtance to the iTunes Music Store, so they said hold back on buying anything Apple. But shares are like football or war- its a matter of opinion.
For what its worth if you look at the past couple of years even without anything as exciting as iTunes Music Store, the share price has continued to rise through the first three weeks of May. Then the inconsistent bit is how close to June the price stops rising before dropping severely around dividends day in June. So I expect a fair few shareholders who bought at the low end earlier this year will be thinking about offloading sometime soon. The tension.
But then again, there's nothing quite like the current mix of software and upcoming hardware revisions/970 chip intros to maybe reward those less speculative, more long haul investors prepared to see it through at least till the end of the year when the outlook could be starting to look very profitable for Apple.
ie By the year end, Windows users should be getting their sweaty hands on the music download software. If Apple have played their cards right by then, a lot of share holders wont want to think about selling anything, because Apple will be at the stage where they will at least be able to start paying slightly more decent dividends. According to Merryl Lynch if Apple make 10 cents a track profit, every 50 million downloads will equate to a cent paid out as dividend each quarter. Thats not a money cow in the stock broker book, so thery dont rate Apple. Apple say its closer to 40 cents which presumably means a cent per 12 million downloads. Thats closer to something that can be milked, because music downloads are in the billions literally. Merryl Lynch and others say so what, hardly any of the downloads are currently paid for, so still the say Apple isnt a good prospect on the Stock Market.
However, the unique situation with the Apple software is that the Big Five, seriously big businesses, are desparate for the Apple guinea pig to work, to stop the piracy, and because Apple have the technology now, and given Apple's know how after 18 months already on the job, the software is likely to work just as seamlessly on Windows machines on launch time. So these big "backers" would be crazy to dump Apple before the end of the year launch on the world market - in my opinion. Music software will be the new rock n roll and the market is all about confidence, therefore it should be a good Christmas for Apple.
But I think the music software is more than a sacred cow in itself. It is a jewel which will impact very heavily, and to the positive, on Apple's main baby, hardware. With the Windows brigade getting their hands on Apple's highly profitable iPods in vast numbers around Christmas, (as a for instance 20000 were just sold and 110000 ordered after week one of the new store opening - and only the tiny Mac community can use the software); and with iTunes software starting to cover PC screens across the globe, the profile of Macintosh will be like nothing before. And with a high profile at last, you might see the real sacred cash cows, the PowerMacs, shipping with the 970chips in vast numbers to switchers either at Xmas or in the New Year, thus boosting Apples profits, and dividends even further. And the music industry will be happy too, bless 'em, as may companies opersating under an Apple licence, like Amazon.
But hey, I might be totally wrong, and Apple wont port music software to Windows land, either through choice to keep business at the rock steady niche level, or through market forces ie being shafted as Amazon or other companies muscle in.
Bye bye bye, see y'all, see ya'll, see ya'll