What REAL advantage does prior disclosure have? Please do not tell me that specs from one Rev to another Rev are so critical to future computer purchases that even the enterprise market is befuddled and can't make a timely decision on which and how many units to purchase unless they have months and months to cogitate about it. Complete crap. Tech budgets are based on dollars available to spend on approximately x number replacement units needed, not dollars per Gb or MHz. Price is more critical than specs.
Well for one, most serious investors require company roadmaps to determine whether or not it's a good investment. One of the reasons AAPL is so volitile is because there are no facts to base investment on. Sure there is sales history and adoption and things like that, but that says nothing about where the stock will be next week. For all we know, Apple could have stopped all computer R&D and instead started concentrating on revolutionizing Fast Food. Meanwhile, for months and months, investors are blindly investing in the next fast food chain and wouldn't find out about it until Steve Jobs unveils "iEat." Meanwhile, the clueless analysts had continued to lead them on saying that Apple would be releasing new MacBooks.
Face it. We know nothing about what's going on inside Apple. As an investor myself and a long-time Apple user, I wouldn't touch AAPL with a 39 & 1/2-foot pole. The fact that so many people just TRUST Apple to be doing "the right thing" baffles me. Wall Street is not based on trust.
And sure it's easy to look at the company and call me a fool for doubting their success. I'm not doubting their success, I'm looking at the bigger picture. Apple's success is only very recent and - I believe - based on the lucky break that was the iPod. Apple was making amazing products before the iPod but still only had 2% marketshare (explain that one for me). I also remember an episode Steve Jobs had with Pancreatic Cancer... a disease which is almost always terminal. The loss of Steve would have (will someday) completely alter the landscape of Apple. His replacement could destroy the empire Steve built, or perhaps could be an even greater leader than Steve, we just don't know. Either way, we're looking at a very small snapshot in the entire history of Apple. Their current success doesn't imply anything about their future, be it next week, next month or next year. The only guarantee we have about Apple is that... oh wait, we have none.
So investors are one BIIIIIIG area where a roadmap is *usually* an necessity. All you who've expereienced the 800% returns on AAPL recently, congratulations on your investment, but you're no less foolish in my mind. Sorry.
Aside from being an inconvenience to investors, it's just either really arrogant or really paranoid. I tend to lean towards the "arrogant" side of things. What trade secrets about the upcoming Nano update to 16GB could Apple
really be hiding from the industry? And if Apple says they're afraid to show too many details about OS X for fear that Redmond will "start their photocopiers," I don't buy it. MS is so knee-deep in s**t (i.e. fixing Vista) they don't have the ability to copy Leopard (not to mention the OS X experience). Apple knows that.
Anyway, Apple's secrecy is nothing but an inconvenience to those who care and it's of no benefit to those who don't.
-Clive