get Apple Care
Many people never have problems and love their portable Mac, the MBA sells over a million a year by itself, even if only 0.01% have problems well that is still a lot of people who will complain. Why would you take that risk?
A million a year and 0.01% have problems? I think i would take that risk, That's such a tiny percentage.
Look to each their own, if you can justify it, then that's good, if ***** goes down on my mbp, I can diagnose the hardware problem and fix it myself. A logic board off ebay is roughly 500 bucks, so it's close to the same cost, and I personally enjoy fixing things and tinkering around.
and the chances are even smaller that this happens twice on the same machine.
Look these extended warranties exist because companies (like bestbuy) make boatloads of money off them (having been a former bestbuy employee I know first hand, we make around 2 bucks per laptop (and none for apple computers) and the bulk of our profit comes from these service plans (applecare) and accessories). These service plans have been calculated by the companies, it must be so dirt cheap to offer these services, and they can sell it at a high price to offer "peace of mind". They can operate these plans because the turnout far outweighs the number of laptops that don't go wrong.
In anycase, I've got a 10 year old TV that still works perfect, my macbook never brokedown and my macbook pro is running fine as well. My iphone 3g 3gs and 4 never showed any issues and neither did my ipod classic/video/nano/touch. My nexus one, touch diamond 2, N95, N82, and Milestone never had any issues either.
Only thing that's ever broken down on my was a samsung SGH D900i, but that was within 2 months of use and was remedied by me just buying a new housing online and fixing it up.
I suppose I've been lucky enough to never have any tech headaches that has warranted me to feel the need to purchase the extended warranty. and of course, YRMV