So the answers are yes, no yes. Best answer so far is wait 'til Wednesday before doing anything. Now let's look at what happened last year...
New price today on 32GB 3G ipad2 is $729+tax, refurb price is $629+tax from Apple.com. If Apple does
the same thing again as last year, on Wednesday the prices will be $629+tax for a new (clearance) one and $559 for the refurb. You'll want to watch Verizon also, since
AT&T last year clearanced all 3G ipad models; 16GB were $429 new/clearance and both 32GB and 64GB were $529. Verizon was very aggressive clearing out the ipad1 wifi models; I'd think they'd do similar again with the 3G ipad2.
So $425 for a 32GB 3G is not a bad price, but it might have a week of warranty left and it's be $70 to add Applecare -- by which point you may as well get a new/clearanced one or a refurb (which comes with new outer shell, new battery, and full warranty).
Will Apple 100% for sure repeat last year's price cuts? We'll find out. I'd be surprised if they didn't do something fairly similar.
Open question for others -- seems to me there's more risk buying a used Verizon 3G ipad from someone you don't know. Even if you have every reason to think it's a legit buy, what if a week after you buy it Verizon blacklists the thing, do you have any recourse? With AT&T, get a new SIM, off you go. What do you do with Verizon? (It's for this that I'd be especially suspicious on a Verizon device that's a very good deal relative to other sellers).
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