Sidebar Sidebar
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

Who thinks iPads won't sell out?

M

macguy360

macrumors 6502a
Original poster
Feb 23, 2011
836
512
I have a feeling that this year the iPad won't sell out like it did for the iPad and iPad 2. Here are the potential reasons why.

1. The economy is still doing terrible. Real unemployment is somewhere around 18% and the median income is something like 30k per year. People just don't have the extra income to buy an entertainment item right now.

2. Most people do not know how to sell on craigslist or ebay and so they won't be quick to upgrade to the newest iPad if they already have an iPad or iPad 2. The general computer illiterate populace tends to upgrade computers when their computer is running "slow" but with the iPad and IOS, this isn't as much of an issue versus computers which can take several minutes to boot up and get programs running if they are older. Just looking at people with iPhone 3g's at the mall can prove that people tend to keep what they have if it is running decent even if it is several years old.

3. The benefits of the iPad HD might not seem significant enough. There also might not be enough of a form factor difference to appeal to those people who like to have a "new" Apple product and show it off.

Now to the list of reasons why I think the iPad could sell out and be the hot item of the year.

1. People have been known to throw caution to the wind in terms of saving money. You can see this evidenced by driving by government housing areas and seeing boxes for 46" Led tv's sitting in people's garages or by reading news on personal debt levels. If people want the iPad HD enough they might just use their last bit of money to get it.

2. Tax Return season. There are many people who are getting returns for $500-$3000 just in time to get a brand new iPad. This could be a big possibility.

3. Die Hard Apple Fans and the Apple Movement. Apple has succeeded in becoming the number 1 computer company in the World with a valuation higher than some small countries. There are millions of fans who absolutely have to get the newest product.

4. With tough times comes smart minded individuals. People who are out of work and needing some extra cash might take this as an opportunity to make some reselling. Hey if you dont have a job, you can camp out for a couple days to make a few hundred bucks.

These are my thoughts on the situation. I feel it could go either way. What do you think?
 
Don't forget Apple is heavily expanding internationally, especially in Asia and perhaps soon in Africa as well. There is a whole new market, and there are still enough people without an iPad.

Next to that, there are more countries than the USA. I think there are still enough people in Europe who would gladly like to buy an iPad 3 - and sure, there's an economic recession in Europe, but I think this economic recession in Europe is really small compared to the economic problems in the USA. People in the USA can really get in big troubles when they have no job. Europeans can also get in trouble, but not in really huge trouble. No one here (Western-Europe, the Netherlands) can become homeless.

People who are homeless, and these are very few, choose to be so. Literally choose. As in "I want to be homeless." Everyone here can go to the local authorities and can demand a place to live (like an apartment) - and local authorities must find you something.

If you're ill, you can go to the hospital or your local practitioner for free. I realize some Americans don't like this (those who don't "want" to be insured for example), but this is just how it works over here and I think it's a great system.

So while I definitely think there are people who won't buy the iPad 3 because of the economic recession (both in the EU and USA), I also think it's more an American issue.

So there's already a difference.

So I think this is much more of an issue in the USA than anywhere else in the world.

I can see US sales go down (relatively, in %), but over-all they will definitely go up.
 
ThatsMeRight said:
Don't forget Apple is heavily expanding internationally, especially in Asia and perhaps soon in Africa as well. There is a whole new market, and there are still enough people without an iPad.

Next to that, there are more countries than the USA. I think there are still enough people in Europe who would gladly like to buy an iPad 3 - and sure, there's an economic recession in Europe, but I think this economic recession in Europe is really small compared to the economic problems in the USA. People in the USA can really get in big troubles when they have no job. Europeans can also get in trouble, but not in really huge trouble. No one here (Western-Europe, the Netherlands) can become homeless.

People who are homeless, and these are very few, choose to be so. Literally choose. As in "I want to be homeless." Everyone here can go to the local authorities and can demand a place to live (like an apartment) - and local authorities must find you something.

So I think this is much more of an issue in the USA than anywhere else in the world.

I can see US sales go down (relatively, in %), but over-all they will definitely go up.
Click to expand...

Good point. World wide sales will definitely increase. I agree with you on that. My post was mostly referring to the U.S.
 
I think its gonna be strong sales. You make great points about the economy etc, but that didn't stop the iPhone 4 or iPad 2 craziness....and i doubt its gonna stop the iPad 3 sales. People put money aside for a while to save up, and for 499, its not out of range for people who really want it. If it was the price of the laptops, forget it..its the bang for the buck that people feel they are getting that sells it.
 
1. Apple usually does well despite the shape the economy is in--in fact in a bad economy, they're one of the companies that skews the numbers the other way while all the other ones flounder. There are some other tech companies that do this too, but Apple is the biggest one.

2. This iPad, if the rumors are true, is going to have several features that people hoped would be in the iPad 1. Retina display and a high quality camera are on the top of the list. iPad 3 or HD or whatever they end up calling it, is rumored to have both. Many people held off on iPad 1 because lack of cameras, and because it was unproven tech. Many people held off on the iPad 2 because the screen was not the same quality as the iPhone and the cameras were pretty crappy. Those people are not going to have an excuse to hold off any longer.

Me personally? The iPad is my favorite gadget of all time. It is the most versatile piece of tech I have ever owned and has taken the place of a lot of other things that I used to use. Therefore, I will probably upgrade every single year.
 
well i bought the ipad1 as a reconditioned unit from apple. i sold it last march and bought a new iPad 2. i just sold the iPad 2 on CL for $415 (16gb white wifi) as did my wife (same iPad model) for $415. we are both going to buy the Ipad3, hopefully on day its available at best buy. if it has everything rumored to have -- retina, 8mp cam, etc, its pretty much everything we want and unless some new blockbuster is avail for the ipad4, i think i'd stay with this one for a while.
 
apple is one company that is not affected by the poor economy. Consumers will still buy their products no matter what. Look at the record breaking numbers recently....poor economy where? lol
 
Oh, it's gonna be worse than the 2 was for availability, IMO. so many more people are getting the HD than the 1 or the 2. mid to late adopters are jumping in big time, plus the increased complexity of the screen will limit production. iPad HD is gonna be hard to get unless Apple can do even better at production/distribution, and they are already one of the best in the world for that. It's just the demand is impossible to meet at launches.
 
Last edited:
"Sell out" is relative to initial inventory. If apple intends to tighten up their international release numbers then it's easy to imagine them shorting supply in order to fulfill quicker launches. And "selling out" only increases future sales because many people will break their rules about budgeting and rational purchases when they feel something is "rare".
 
No chance that there aren't shortages for the first few months. The average consumer will not see or appreciate the upgrade in processor but the resolution bump can be seen by just turning the thing on. It will be by far the biggest selling point, and IMO deservedly so.
 
iWantThat said:
No chance that there aren't shortages for the first few months. The average consumer will not see or appreciate the upgrade in processor but the resolution bump can be seen by just turning the thing on. It will be by far the biggest selling point, and IMO deservedly so.
Click to expand...

Read this and ONLY this. 100 percent on the mark. Well said.
 
macguy360 said:
I have a feeling that this year the iPad won't sell out like it did for the iPad and iPad 2. Here are the potential reasons why.

1. The economy is still doing terrible. Real unemployment is somewhere around 18% and the median income is something like 30k per year. People just don't have the extra income to buy an entertainment item right now.

2. Most people do not know how to sell on craigslist or ebay and so they won't be quick to upgrade to the newest iPad if they already have an iPad or iPad 2. The general computer illiterate populace tends to upgrade computers when their computer is running "slow" but with the iPad and IOS, this isn't as much of an issue versus computers which can take several minutes to boot up and get programs running if they are older. Just looking at people with iPhone 3g's at the mall can prove that people tend to keep what they have if it is running decent even if it is several years old.

3. The benefits of the iPad HD might not seem significant enough. There also might not be enough of a form factor difference to appeal to those people who like to have a "new" Apple product and show it off.
Click to expand...
1. The economy has been doing horrible, yet Apple just keeps selling and selling. /idea

2. Some people crave new items and will just give their current iPad to their significant other, family member, etc. /idea

3. Retina Display /idea
 
Of course it's going to sell out. The economy might be bad but it's not as bad as it was this time last year. All the reason you give were made last year, and we saw the shortages. I'll even make the argument that the iPad 3, from what we know about it, is more compelling an upgrade from the iPad 2 than the iPad 2 was from the iPad 1. There are going to be a ton of upgraders and new users alike.
 
SAL8116 said:
The economy can't be too bad when I'm able to sell my iPad 2 for almost what I paid for it.
Click to expand...

Hahaha good point too.

Economy has been bad since 2007 or.....when shares were 90 dollars in March of 07.

Today its 545. I think Apple has proven no matter what is going on with the Economy it does not affect them.
 
In the UK? Possibly, but it won't be as bad as the situation in the States.

The iPad 2 sold out in 2011, but stock was replenished frequently. It wasn't too hard getting hold of one if you looked hard enough. Also correct me if I'm wrong, but the day after release, if you were quick there were still some WiFi models available in Apple Stores. Only smaller retailers sold out for any extensive period of time.
 
As alluded to by urkel above and as you saw with Samsung and Amazon, even if it doesn't sell out it will sell out. Even if only 10,000 are sold Apple can find a way to limit distribution and create a sense of pent-up demand. Although I'm in the "this will sell very well" camp.
 
It will sell out. Retina Display is more than enough to justify that 500 dollars price.
 
Unless Apple has ramped up production significantly, it will have daily sell outs with other outlets certainly selling out since they will not likely get daily replenishment. The iPhone 4S was arguably the most incremental upgrade and there were sell outs. The iPad will see a more significant change. Everyone and their brother wants a tablet these days if they can afford it, and many that can't do as well.

So yeah. It's gonna sell out.
 
There will be shortages for sure. No matter how many people are rushing out to buy it, Apple will withhold stock to create buzz and demand.
 
macguy360 said:
I have a feeling that this year the iPad won't sell out like it did for the iPad and iPad 2. Here are the potential reasons why.

1. The economy is still doing terrible. Real unemployment is somewhere around 18% and the median income is something like 30k per year. People just don't have the extra income to buy an entertainment item right now.
Click to expand...

You are right, the economy all over the world (exception of like...several Asian countries?) are doing rather poorly. It depends on how much they want the device. $550 is about one pay check for me...I'm a full time student though. Because I decided I want this device, I have been saving up and setting aside money (I haven't been shirking bill payments or using credit, btw, just eating out less with friends stuff like that LOL). Of course, this is just myself. But it is possible for others to feel/act similarly.

macguy360 said:
2. Most people do not know how to sell on craigslist or ebay and so they won't be quick to upgrade to the newest iPad if they already have an iPad or iPad 2. The general computer illiterate populace tends to upgrade computers when their computer is running "slow" but with the iPad and IOS, this isn't as much of an issue versus computers which can take several minutes to boot up and get programs running if they are older. Just looking at people with iPhone 3g's at the mall can prove that people tend to keep what they have if it is running decent even if it is several years old.
Click to expand...

Sure, but a lot of people also upgrade cause they want the latest and greatest and/or can simply afford to. A lot of people on this forum (of course, this is a small biased sample of the overall population...it's safe to say that a majority of users here are tech-savvy) are upgrading for the sake of upgrading. Ebay and craigslist is full of iPads. The iPad 2 sold out quickly (and remained sold out for a long time when I was working at Best Buy). Admittedly the improvements were major factors, but your point is people upgrade when something runs slow. I'm pretty confident that when the iPad 2 came out, the iPad was still running pretty smoothly.

macguy360 said:
3. The benefits of the iPad HD might not seem significant enough. There also might not be enough of a form factor difference to appeal to those people who like to have a "new" Apple product and show it off.
Click to expand...

Oh, but they are, to some people out there. For some reason, I feel that many people who did not buy the iPad 1/2 are finally gearing up to purchase one this time around. The retina display and possibility of LTE makes it all the sweeter. I am personally picking up an iPad for the first time this year. Why? I dunno...it feels like a good time. And I'm satisfied with what the iPad has. As I mentioned before, people will upgrade for the sake of upgrading (there is a surprising number of people who upgrade annually). There are also others who have been waiting for retina display and possibly LTE. Look at the iPhone 4 and 4S. The 4S has the same "form factor" and you can hardly tell when someone has a "new" Apple product to show off. It received a spec bump and a lot of people actually purchased the 4S.

Just my two cents. :p
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.
Top Bottom
Back