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Old Dec 20, 2012, 08:00 PM   #1
flavr
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won't be a retina mini till fall 2013..because A7 won't be ready for iPad 5 till then

Heres why:

Apple needs to differentiate their iPad product lines between the regular iPad and mini. The next version of the mini will get a retina, A6X chip and 1GB RAM...The next iPad will get a new look, A7X and 2GB RAM...

So lets imagine for a moment they update the mini to retina in the spring. What processor would it get, A5X, A6X? They can't have the A6X and 1GB RAM in both iPads, specs are too close. So they would have to update the specs for the iPad 5...thing is, the A7X will not be ready by spring.

Most likely since the mini is selling so well, why update so soon? We won't see any iPad updates in spring...and in the fall 2013

iPad mini, retina, 1GB RAM, A6X
iPad 5, retina, 2GB RAM, A7X
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Old Dec 20, 2012, 09:31 PM   #2
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If they put a Retina display in there, they'll probably stick with just the A7 or possibly A6. The X series are more than 40% larger in die footprint and consume a lot more power and output a lot more heat.
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 03:44 AM   #3
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If they put a Retina display in there, they'll probably stick with just the A7 or possibly A6. The X series are more than 40% larger in die footprint and consume a lot more power and output a lot more heat.
Exactly. They are likely to go in for the A6 for the mini. Both ipads will be updated to use a 28nm A6, compared to the 32nm A6/ A6X presently in use.

The A7 wont b in full production swing till mid 2014, so no way Apple is going to wait till then.Final production run of 20nm A7..if all goes well will start at the end of Oct.

My thought is Apple is going to share the SoC with Samsung and TSMC initally for the 28nm A6, before switching over to TSMC if all is well. They won't depend fully on TSMC completely..its too risky.

Expect a double ipad release in June-July
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Old Dec 20, 2012, 10:05 PM   #4
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I'm going with a iPad Mini with Retina display in March 2013 (replacing the original iPad launch space).

A6 chip
1GB RAM

Then later in fall the iPad 5 with A7X releases.
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 05:43 AM   #5
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I'm going with a iPad Mini with Retina display in March 2013 (replacing the original iPad launch space).

A6 chip
1GB RAM

Then later in fall the iPad 5 with A7X releases.
Won't happen - their launch for these products is autumn now.

Apple is still behind in shipping times with the mini, so there's no way they will launch a new product in 3 months with existing stock issues of current product - there would be no reason, the demand for the current version is too high.

Some think retina won't happen in the next generation mini, can't wait to see but I wonder what resolution it'll ultimately come out with. Will it be a doubling? If so, how would they differentiate the iPad full sized from a mini with that resolution? Would they create a new intermediate resolution and give developers a resolution to support?? And what will retina do to the form factor of this most wonderful device? Right now it's big feature is size (thin and lightweight) - I doubt they would move away from that feature with a retina screen, so is that possible??
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 02:51 PM   #6
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Won't happen - their launch for these products is autumn now.

Apple is still behind in shipping times with the mini, so there's no way they will launch a new product in 3 months with existing stock issues of current product - there would be no reason, the demand for the current version is too high.

Some think retina won't happen in the next generation mini, can't wait to see but I wonder what resolution it'll ultimately come out with. Will it be a doubling? If so, how would they differentiate the iPad full sized from a mini with that resolution? Would they create a new intermediate resolution and give developers a resolution to support?? And what will retina do to the form factor of this most wonderful device? Right now it's big feature is size (thin and lightweight) - I doubt they would move away from that feature with a retina screen, so is that possible??
They launched the iPad Mini in Fall because that was the only time they could...and they also updated the iPad due to increasing competition from Nexus 10 and Surface.

Basically, Retina is going to happen in spring time. HTC is already planning to release Windows 8 7-inch and 12-inch tablets to compete. There's going to be a ton of stuff at CES, expect Samsung to also step up. Also rumors that Microsoft is considering a price drop for the Surface.
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 06:49 PM   #7
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They launched the iPad Mini in Fall because that was the only time they could...and they also updated the iPad due to increasing competition from Nexus 10 and Surface.

Basically, Retina is going to happen in spring time. HTC is already planning to release Windows 8 7-inch and 12-inch tablets to compete. There's going to be a ton of stuff at CES, expect Samsung to also step up. Also rumors that Microsoft is considering a price drop for the Surface.
They didn't launch the iPad 4 because of competition - the only reason they didn't do a silent upgrade (due to the feature set not being something that normally warrants an announcement and big launch) is because they wanted to let everyone know the product is new and good for an entire cycle, meaning one year (typical iPad refresh cycle). They will launch all iPads, iPhones, iPods in the autumn time frame, just before the holidays from now on.

They are currently having stock issues with the mini, in order to get ready for a new launch they would have to stockpile for weeks or months in order to meet demand day one. They would never do that when they have so much demand for the current product they can't meet it - it's not good business to upgrade a product where demand exceeds supply for the existing product. And there is a whole conversation we could have regarding the possibility that retina can even be made to work in the mini (while retaining the mini's main "magical" attraction, it's form factor and battery life).

Apple does yearly (or longer) release cycles for all its products, and this recent mini launch (and iPad 4 "tag along") was the resetting of the launch date for the iPad family. There will be no retina mini in March or Spring time.

The competition will always be doing something, but I would never use it to predict any reaction from Apple. And any price drop for the Surface is due to lack of demand.
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Old Dec 22, 2012, 01:20 AM   #8
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They didn't launch the iPad 4 because of competition - the only reason they didn't do a silent upgrade (due to the feature set not being something that normally warrants an announcement and big launch) is because they wanted to let everyone know the product is new and good for an entire cycle, meaning one year (typical iPad refresh cycle). They will launch all iPads, iPhones, iPods in the autumn time frame, just before the holidays from now on.
Apple needed to get a 7'' tablet into the holiday market. Apple was already using market share due to cheaper Android tablets and needed to plug the hole. It also didn't make sense for the iPad mini to have newer features than the bigger iPad so they updated it. Updating it would also make the iPad a lot more competitive to the Nexus 10 and Surface.

Again, Apple might not be able to do full 1 year cycle anymore as seen with the iPad 4. If they have to get into the market, they will. Its better to release yours early than not release any at all. Google is expected to announce a cheaper $99, upgraded Nexus 7 Q1 of 2013.

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Originally Posted by WilliamLondon View Post
They are currently having stock issues with the mini, in order to get ready for a new launch they would have to stockpile for weeks or months in order to meet demand day one. They would never do that when they have so much demand for the current product they can't meet it - it's not good business to upgrade a product where demand exceeds supply for the existing product. And there is a whole conversation we could have regarding the possibility that retina can even be made to work in the mini (while retaining the mini's main "magical" attraction, it's form factor and battery life).
Component makers for the second-generation iPad mini are supposedly preparing for an earlier-than-expected time to market despite Apple not completing the iPad mini's global rollout.

As for whether it can be even accomplished, it seems reasonable that Apple already had an iPad mini with Retina display prototype. There were reports and rumors, but Apple chose to go with nonretina and instead focus on a light and cheaper product for their first generation.

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Apple does yearly (or longer) release cycles for all its products, and this recent mini launch (and iPad 4 "tag along") was the resetting of the launch date for the iPad family. There will be no retina mini in March or Spring time.

The competition will always be doing something, but I would never use it to predict any reaction from Apple. And any price drop for the Surface is due to lack of demand.
I just can't see Apple leaving a wide-open gap for others to take over during for 9 to 10 months. The fact is they won't release any iOS product in either spring or summer if thats the case. They could loose significant marketshare as Samsung will be releasing its Galaxy S4 around May. Say what you want about it, but its become the #1 selling Android phone and has sold a ton. It used to be the big iPad, but I don't see them updating the big iPad until the fall where HTC, Google, and Microsoft are expected to release big competitors.
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Old Jan 7, 2013, 01:59 PM   #9
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I'm going with a iPad Mini with Retina display in March 2013 (replacing the original iPad launch space).

A6 chip
1GB RAM

Then later in fall the iPad 5 with A7X releases.
...that's what I'm thinking, iPad mini retina in March and thinner/lighter iPad 5 in the fall (and newer iPhone in the summer)
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Old Jan 7, 2013, 02:44 PM   #10
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...that's what I'm thinking, iPad mini retina in March and thinner/lighter iPad 5 in the fall (and newer iPhone in the summer)
Doubtful. Just too complicated for a company that likes keeping things simple. I think you see one iPad announcement each fall and one iPhone announcement, also each fall.
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 03:52 AM   #11
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A6 cant run a retina display. What r u guys smoking.
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 04:08 AM   #12
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Apple have NEVER been generous with Ram. I expect the iPad 5 will have cpu & gpu enhancements, but will stick to the 1GB ram.

As for retina mini, as we know from previous details from the actual suppliers of these screens that they wont be ready till Q4 2013 for production, then we know the Mini will indeed get retina probably October / November 2013.

This would be 6 - 8 weeks after the inevitable iPhone 5s / 6 launch. Which we can assume will see the introduction of the A7.

I therefore predict the iPad mini will see a Retina & an A7 chip next year... There seems to be an assumption that Apple opted for the A5 in the mini as because they wanted a less powerful model, when I really believe they opted for the A5 because they didn't have retina displays ready and therefore it didn't need the extra horsepower to drive a big display. It was a decision made more of necessity and profits rather than just economics and profit.
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 04:39 AM   #13
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I think we will see a thinner lighter ipad 4 in March and a retina ipad mini in Oct/Nov
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Old Dec 23, 2012, 11:34 PM   #14
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Apple have NEVER been generous with Ram. I expect the iPad 5 will have cpu & gpu enhancements, but will stick to the 1GB ram.
That really depends on how aggressive they go with iOS 7 and what amount of features they want exclusive to new iPad only. But my gut agrees with you. I'm guessing this next round will focus more on physical changes and iOS 7 "innovations".
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Old Dec 23, 2012, 11:36 PM   #15
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i mean, people literally said in this thread that apple mentioned nexus 7 to point out what they lack and what the ipad mini had, but not because it's competing with nexus 7

REALLY? IS THIS REALLY?
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 09:15 AM   #16
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A6 cant run a retina display. What r u guys smoking.
A6 GPU is as powerful as the A5X's GPU. And since the iPad 3 has an A5X chip...
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 10:16 AM   #17
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A6 GPU is as powerful as the A5X's GPU. And since the iPad 3 has an A5X chip...
It has half the memory bandwidth as the A5X, something arguably extremely important in high resolutions situations.

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I therefore predict the iPad mini will see a Retina & an A7 chip next year... There seems to be an assumption that Apple opted for the A5 in the mini as because they wanted a less powerful model, when I really believe they opted for the A5 because they didn't have retina displays ready and therefore it didn't need the extra horsepower to drive a big display. It was a decision made more of necessity and profits rather than just economics and profit.
I don't quite understand this, of course Apple oped for the A5 because profits. The entire point of the mini was supposed to be an economical model and that economy does not change next year. the margins for the ipad mini doesn't fall off the wayside so apple can answer our dreams of an up to date CPU and screen. This reminds me a lot of the 13" macbook pro where apple continuously busted people's bubbles over its refusal to up the resolution.
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 10:45 AM   #18
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The iPad 5 will have the 2gb of ram I think. Reason being is the iPhone now has 1gb and the iPad with the hugely increased resolution (thus needs hugely increased texture and picture resolutions) could use it more effectively when it comes to app switching. The iPhone 5 vs 4S is a MAJOR difference in terms of swapping apps (like 4 on my 4s to 12+ on my 5).

Then they can have the iPhone 5S and iPad mini 2 with 1gb of ram and the iPod touch 6th gen with 512 still.

Then the iPhone 6 will have 2gb of ram (approx. 2 years after the SIII and Nexus 4 had it so will be super SUPER cheap).

The will maybe shrink the A5X or A6X down to iPad mini sizes soon. Otherwise the A6 on it's own I don't think would give the same sort of power and results as the A5X was on the first gen retina iPad.
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Old Dec 22, 2012, 12:37 PM   #19
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I don't quite understand this, of course Apple oped for the A5 because profits. The entire point of the mini was supposed to be an economical model and that economy does not change next year.
No. It was not supposed to be the 'economic' model (implying the 'cheaper option'.)

They clearly were not competing with 'cheap tablets', they just made a smaller ipad, not a cheap ipad.

A Retina MBP 13" isn't a budget choice compared to the 15" MBP, and likewise the ipad mini is not a budget ipad 9.7".
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Old Dec 22, 2012, 02:29 PM   #20
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No. It was not supposed to be the 'economic' model (implying the 'cheaper option'.)

They clearly were not competing with 'cheap tablets', they just made a smaller ipad, not a cheap ipad.
But it was obvious that Apple launched the iPad mini to compete with the Nexus 7 and Kindle Fire HD, neither which are exactly cheap as they both have some better specs than the iPad mini.

Apple could have made better specs, but their margin of profit would be low so they opted for cheaper, old components.

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Can't apple use an A5X CPU,and maybe 1gb ram, to run a retina display for it's next iPad Mini ?
Think it will use an A6 instead of A5X. the X models are used for the larger iPad's bigger retina display screen.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 07:16 AM   #21
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A6 GPU is as powerful as the A5X's GPU. And since the iPad 3 has an A5X chip...
Nope. They're close, but the A5X still has the edge when measured for raw performance in resolution independent tests. Otherwise, Apple wouldn't have pissed around with such a stupid chip.

The second iPad mini will get an A6X if it's Retina while the iPad picks up the new kid, the A7X, unless they get to the stage where the iPad's crazy resolution doesn't need a pumped up version of the chip, but I don't see that happening for a while.
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 08:27 AM   #22
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Nope. They're close, but the A5X still has the edge when measured for raw performance in resolution independent tests. Otherwise, Apple wouldn't have pissed around with such a stupid chip.

The second iPad mini will get an A6X if it's Retina while the iPad picks up the new kid, the A7X, unless they get to the stage where the iPad's crazy resolution doesn't need a pumped up version of the chip, but I don't see that happening for a while.
If you go by the rumors that fast coming out, the ipad 5 can be expected between march-june 2013. The dimensions given by macotakara does make sense if you look at it from the mini's design perspective. Even so, the A7 which was supposed to be made by TSMC on a 20nm design, will not be ready, even until fall.

In my opinion, here is a logical roadmap. The ipad 5 gets updated with a 28nm SOC from TSMC, which they call A6Y or A7X, and the 20nm expected in 2014, will be called A8. Currently the ipad 4 uses a A6X based on a 32nm process from samsung. Using this updated SOC, they can extract a little more performance and improved battery life. Adding to that will be the IGZO technology, they should be able to reduce a great deal of heat dissipation, battery consumption by upto 40-50%, and reducing the battery size by around 25%. That way, they will still be able to offer the standard 10 hour life claim, if not more. But there lies a problem in that.

With these current possible updates, they can only at max improve the following: rear camera to 8mp, front camera to 1080p, add perhaps NFC, and add the truly global LTE chip from Qualcomm. The graphics hardware may also shift to Series 6 "Rogue" series.

With a new design change, improved internals, and improved battery life, and a substantial weight reduction, there isn't a large difference from the ipad 4. with the ipad 4 already getting an retina, newly added A6X, lightning, it almost on par with the upcoming ipad 5.

That means the budget tablet ipad 4 isn't going to do well, once it moves away from the mainstream and shift to the ipad 2 position. You might as well pay the additional 100$ and get the MUCH MUCH better ipad 5 in the first place.

I definitely don't believe that ipad mini 1st gen will replace ipad 2. It's simply doesnt make sense.


A workaround such a problem would be to do two simultaneous things. Firstly increase the base price to $549 for the ipad 5. Then surprise everybody by offering it as 32gb, 64gb and the NEW 128gb. Thereby saying a $50 increase gives u double the space. The icing on cake would be they streamlined the whole lineup and had LTE on the same models for the same price. So just 3 ipad models to choose from. A strategy like that will practically smash the competition out of the market.

Now for the budget model, they have 2 options, either retain the ipad 4 focusing still on the retina and slap the prize down, or upgrade the ipad 2 to have an A6 ( not A6X), and offer improved performance but no retina.

the ipad mini will get the retina and A6X and a base price of around $349, while the ipad mini non-retina will find a slight decrease base price to $299

So can we dream for a scenario like that???
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Old Dec 28, 2012, 11:17 PM   #23
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Now for the budget model, they have 2 options, either retain the ipad 4 focusing still on the retina and slap the prize down, or upgrade the ipad 2 to have an A6 ( not A6X), and offer improved performance but no retina.

the ipad mini will get the retina and A6X and a base price of around $349, while the ipad mini non-retina will find a slight decrease base price to $299

So can we dream for a scenario like that???
The Ipad 4 as a value model does not work. Apple has to address the mid level market share problem. In developing country, price is a very important factor and Apple need to be able to keep driving down price in the "value" line in order to increase market share. Having a non-retina line as the entry level would be a good move. Ipad 3 has a so so gross margin (23 to 32% GM last year according to Samsung trial doc) and Ipad mini has terrible GM right now according to Apple 3Q12 conference call. i.e. barely making any money after paying the engineering, corporate overhead, and marketing etc. (next quarter will be better). Apple need to figure out a way to build quality stuff cheap to maintain 30-40% GM and expand market share. Keep throwing money into the high end is problematic in the long term (having 15-20% smartphone market share worldwide is a problem for the ecosystem in the long term).
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 05:48 PM   #24
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A6 cant run a retina display. What r u guys smoking.
A6 can run a retina display. What r u guys smoking.

No, really, it can. It's as powerful as the A5X's GPU. It can achieve this speed because it implements traits of the new Cortex A15 architecture chips, including an expanded memory bus. Please, disagree with my opinions, but don't insult me with your drivel.
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Old Dec 21, 2012, 05:55 PM   #25
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I predict no retina, but a better display.
So who cares what chip goes in it.
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