If Apple has a 60% marketshare by 2014, as this group suggest, then I think it will take less than the 7 to 8 years you think it will
So, if Apple's marketshare drops to 60% by 2014, that means that 40% of the market will be split by Android, PlayBook, WebOS, plus any other small players. So, even if Android had fully half of the remaining marketshare, then it would only hold 20% vs. Apple's 60%. And that's three years from now. So, based on that, yes, it would take on the order of 7 to 8 years...
ummmm...didn't Apple have 100% of the App Download Market in 2007-2010? 🙂 Seriously.
So it's decreasing to 75%.
Inevitably Apple is not going to have much more than 50% as soon as Android has more time under its belt (iPhone's been out for ~4 years right?...Android has been out for 1 year).
I like my iPhone but it's silly to think that Apple will own 75%+ of "downloadable apps" after 2011. But let me guess...Apple will suddenly lump Mac OS app downloads into it's count.
So, first off, check your history. The first Android phone came out almost three years ago, and apps could be developed in Android from day 1, whereas it wasn't until about a year after the original iPhone was released that apps could be developed for it. So, the iOS AppStore has really only been around for a few months longer than the Android Marketplace.
Second, it is important to note that this percentage is based on revenue, not number if apps downloaded. As such, the real story here is not how many apps are being downloaded on each platform, but rather where people are willing to spend their money. For that reason, as already noted by a developer who posted above, this kind of information is key to developers for them to decide where to invest their development dollars. So long as the picture remains like this, the iOS development community will see more and better apps developed for it than any of the other platforms...