Apple Executives Optimistic About Future of iOS, Expect Tablet Market to Surpass PCs

MacRumors · Jun 2, 2011

Business Insider reports on a new research note from Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope covering a recent meeting between Shope and Apple executives Tim Cook, Ron Johnson, and Peter Oppenheimer. According to Shope, the executives expressed considerable optimism regarding the future of iOS, particularly when it comes to the iPad. In fact, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook reportedly noted that the company expects tablet sales to surpass PC sales over the next several years.

Shope says, "the company appeared more overtly optimistic on the long-term prospects for the iOS platform than it has been in quite some time."

Why?

For one, Cook said, "he sees no reason why the tablet market shouldn't eclipse the PC market over the next several years," according to Shope's note.

Apple's iPad of course currently dominates that tablet market, and while its share will almost certainly shrink as more competitors come to market, most observers expect Apple to continue to lead the market for years to come.

According to a separate article relating information from the note, Shope reports that Apple is once again touting its preference for an "integrated" ecosystem for iOS over the "fragmented" one it sees for Google's Android platform. Apple's executives reportedly suggest that while the Android approach may yield market share gains over the short term, but the the fragmentation will ultimately weaken the platform and degrade the user experience.

To that end, Apple argues that the true measure of a platform's value should be measured by how well it supports the entire ecosystem surrounding it, and with the company having paid out over $2 billion to App Store developers so far, it believes that it offers the most successful and sustainable model among mobile platforms.

Article Link: Apple Executives Optimistic About Future of iOS, Expect Tablet Market to Surpass PCs

ECUpirate44 · Jun 2, 2011

The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

macduke · Jun 2, 2011

Funny how the measure of the platform changes once Android starts shipping tons of units.

That being said, I do tend to agree with that statement. Android is blowing up big right now and things will even out soon enough. I think (and hope) that iOS 5 will blow our minds.

iOS and Mac OS will converge as one in 5-7 years. Take that to the bank!

INeedAMacBook · Jun 2, 2011

Can't wait to see what iOS 5 does for iPad, especially iPad 2

theelysium · Jun 2, 2011

Yes they do! The best mobile OS ever! You rock Apple!

myamid · Jun 2, 2011

Will tablets replace a significant part of the Consumer Laptop market? Very likely! Will it replace a significant part of the consumer Desktop market? Not as likely? Enterprise space? Quite unlikely...

Will an integrated solution keep dominating? History tends to prove that "integrated" solutions tend to end up being niche products. The exception being when all the competition is just as integrated (ie: game consoles). The iPad will eventually end up having 20-30% of the market, just like the iPhone. Great place for apple to be (20% of the market with just 1 product), as a shareholder I'd love that, but it will end up being 2nd to Android, or maybe 3rd if windows becomes a legit tablet OS (thus facilitating the replacement of PCs)

BLACKFRIDAY · Jun 2, 2011

macduke said:
Funny how the measure of the platform changes once Android starts shipping tons of units.

That being said, I do tend to agree with that statement. Android is blowing up big right now and things will even out soon enough. I think (and hope) that iOS 5 will blow our minds.

huh?

macnerd93 · Jun 2, 2011

ECUpirate44 said:
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

Hence the reason for the iPad Keyboard Dock

or you can use a Bluetooth Keyboard with it.

I love my iPad just cos its more portable than a laptop and it was awesome at a wedding I went to recently, which I shot the photos for my cousin. I was able to show him & the guests all the snaps like 5 mins after i'd took them on my iPad

bpeeps · Jun 2, 2011

macduke said:
Funny how the measure of the platform changes once Android starts shipping tons of units.

That being said, I do tend to agree with that statement. Android is blowing up big right now and things will even out soon enough. I think (and hope) that iOS 5 will blow our minds.

iOS and Mac OS will converge as one in 5-7 years. Take that to the bank!

I hope there are no iOS5 compatibly issues with the iPhone 4. Upgrading the 3G to iOS4 was not a pleasant experience.

nicholashe · Jun 2, 2011

This reminds me of Gruber's old DF post that he recently quoted (link below). The gist is that the iOS devices will only be replacements for Macs when they can do the same high level complicated tasks. Right now, they can't but they get away with it because the Mac exists and lets this happen. It's not a weakness of iOS devices, but just the reality of the technology at the moment.

http://www.macworld.com/article/156153/2010/12/macofthefuturegruber.html

theelysium · Jun 2, 2011

ECUpirate44 said:
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

I agree for me personally (or until they beef them up) tablets will not replace my computer, but my iPad2 does a great job of replacing my computer on the go. If I need to do some serious work though, it's back to my computer.

theelysium · Jun 2, 2011

bpeeps said:
I hope there are no iOS5 compatibly issues with the iPhone 4. Upgrading the 3G to iOS4 was not a pleasant experience.

by that time the 3g was already 2 cycles behind. The iPhone 4 will work fine.

ThunderSkunk · Jun 2, 2011

I'm looking forward to the day they integrate all these technologies into a notebook that has no physical keyboard, but a multitouch control surface in place of it instead. It's a keyboard when you want a keyboard, and a configurable command tablet & hands-on display for any program you might be running, photoshop, cad, game controls etc...

Bonus, would be opening the laptop, having ios pop up to greet you, and either tap to enter ios where your apps can instantly reference the data on the same system ssd drive OS X accesses, or tap OS X to boot the main system and do heavier work.

No other mfg could compete with a system like that. ...for a while.

Is it a tablet? Is it a notebook? yes and yes. Not to say they won't go on making traditional tablets or & notebooks, but it seems like an inevitability with the directions they're going in.

skellener · Jun 2, 2011

Not everyone needs a truck. I agree.

notjustjay · Jun 2, 2011

theelysium said:
I agree for me personally (or until they beef them up) tablets will not replace my computer, but my iPad2 does a great job of replacing my computer on the go. If I need to do some serious work though, it's back to my computer.

I think that's the direction we're moving in. You'll have a powerful PC (laptop or desktop) at home and at your desk at work. For everywhere else, you'll have your smartphone or tablet.

I've been settling into a routine where my iPad is in the bedroom so I can watch a video on Netflix or surf Facebook one last time before bed. My laptop downstairs is where I do the "real" work. The iPhone is for when I'm on the go.

Instead of buying a second or third PC for the home, I can easily picture people buying tablets instead.

myamid · Jun 2, 2011

notjustjay said:
I think that's the direction we're moving in. You'll have a powerful PC (laptop or desktop) at home and at your desk at work. For everywhere else, you'll have your smartphone or tablet.

I've been settling into a routine where my iPad is in the bedroom so I can watch a video on Netflix or surf Facebook one last time before bed. My laptop downstairs is where I do the "real" work. The iPhone is for when I'm on the go.

Instead of buying a second or third PC for the home, I can easily picture people buying tablets instead.

and here I thought the most common usage for tablets was toilet computing... No, for that use, it beats the crap out of a laptop hands down!! (pun intended)

leroypants · Jun 2, 2011

macnerd93 said:
Hence the reason for the iPad Keyboard Dock or you can use a Bluetooth Keyboard with it.

Yeah, why carry a lap top, when you can carry an ipad, a keyboard dock and a card reading attachment.

macnerd93 said:
I love my iPad just cos its more portable than a laptop and it was awesome at a wedding I went to recently, which I shot the photos for my cousin. I was able to show him & the guests all the snaps like 5 mins after i'd took them on my iPad

I know the feeling, it is completely impossible to do that with a laptop.

BC2009 · Jun 2, 2011

ECUpirate44 said:
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

The iPad with the right case with an integrated bluetooth keyboard just might solve that issue for many people. I can actually do quite well on the touch screen keyboards (which quite frankly surprised me -- just took me an hour or two to get used to it when I first got an iPad last year). That said it is still not the best keyboard experience (far from it). The best best keyboard experience out there is still the old IBM Model M keyboards -- even today's modern keyboards are less than optimal for really prolonged typing (like writing a book).

irishgrizzly · Jun 2, 2011

For tablets to surpass PCs would that mean that they'll have a way where someone can buy an iPad and not have to sync it to a desktop? Perhaps all through iCloud?

Or maybe they are talking about revenue and not units sold, where you might buy a PC every 5 years and an ipad every 2.

Andy-V · Jun 2, 2011

ECUpirate44 said:
The iPad or any tablet for that matter will never replace my laptop. Typing for an extended time on a touchscreen is just not practical.

I'm the same, a tablet cannot replace the tasks I perform on my laptop and hardware keyboards are easier to use. They just plain are.

All I would ever be interested in is a hybrid where the laptop screen can be detached. But never JUST a tablet. It's not happening for me, sorry.

Don't vote me down just because it's fine for you.

MisterK · Jun 2, 2011

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8J2 Safari/6533.18.5)

I think this is a given. You can imagine solutions for any of the current problems. Imagine a tablet switching from iOS to Mac OS when it senses Blutooth mouse movement. Faster processors; a mixture of higher capacity drives and cloud storage; lighter carbon fibre bodies; nicer docking; 2nd monitor extension through AirPlay... Maybe this is finally the delivery of the mythical thin client.

macnerd93 · Jun 2, 2011

leroypants said:
I know the feeling, it is completely impossible to do that with a laptop.

I didn't mean it like that. I dont use the keyboard dock, just the ipad the Apple case and the iPad USB Camera kit, it is more portable than my laptop and I really dont wanna get my MBP Scuffed up for the sake of showing a few people photos. obviously its also much quicker to switch on, setup and easier to walk around with.

Thats what I use my iPad for photography. I think it really does bring back the fun of photo editing with all the touch input etc it makes it feel more interactive just like the good old days of developing and stuff, don't get me wrong I love Aperture, but for quick on the move edits an iPad is perfect for myself.

ciTiger · Jun 2, 2011

Tablets will never replace laptops... But Laptops will never replace tablets either... They are completely different things... And Most people would actually just need a tablet...

deannnnn · Jun 2, 2011

I think tablets are great, fun, useful devices. I mean, I love my iPad, but to me, it will never replace my computer. It replaces it in some ways, like casual internet browsing, but if I'm going to do some hardcore word processing or video editing, I'm going to want my laptop there.

Andy-V · Jun 2, 2011

deannnnn said:
I think tablets are great, fun, useful devices. I mean, I love my iPad, but to me, it will never replace my computer. It replaces it in some ways, like casual internet browsing, but if I'm going to do some hardcore word processing or video editing, I'm going to want my laptop there.

This is just it. Tablets should be seen as a complement to laptops and desktops NOT a replacement. Just like laptops didn't replace desktops, tablets simply wont replace laptops. There's room in our lives for all three.

Apple Executives Optimistic About Future of iOS, Expect Tablet Market to Surpass PCs

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