U.S. Mac Demand Soft in January as Customers Wait for Updated Models

[MacRumors]

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is out with a new report today citing data from research firm NPD on U.S. sales of Macs. According to the data, Apple's U.S. Mac sales were up only 1% year-over-year in January, tracking behind predictions that have called for roughly 20% year-over-year growth for the full quarter. Munster believes, however, that continued strength in international markets and the potential for new Mac updates such as a refreshed MacBook Air near end of the quarter will likely help Apple close strongly to meet expectations.

We have analyzed domestic NPD retail data for the first month of the March quarter, which is up 1% y/y. The early data appears soft on a y/y basis; however, last quarter actual Mac growth outpaced NPD by 14 percentage points. Also, we believe Apple may launch new MacBook Airs as early as March. Net-net, we believe this early data suggests Mac sales in the range of 4.4m-4.6m, or 17%-22% y/y growth (we believe Street consensus is 4.5m Macs in the quarter and we are also at 4.5m).

With historical evidence showing overall growth outpacing NPD's U.S. data by 14 percentage points, Munster believes that Apple's actual worldwide Mac growth for January could be in the 15% range, close enough to the 20% target for the full quarter to give a Apple a reasonable chance at making up the difference with a strong finish.




Piper Jaffray's independent data on iPhone sales for January are tracking toward full-quarter sales of 32-34 million, a figure that would help overcome any softness on the Mac side. iPod sales trends remain in line with predictions of continued declines as customers shift from the aging iPod line to iPhones and iPads.

Article Link: U.S. Mac Demand Soft in January as Customers Wait for Updated Models

[jontech]

Give me some Mac Pro love!


I got my credit card ready and a good home to give it!!

[Eidorian]

It is a pretty bad time to get new hardware with Ivy Bridge, Trinity, Kepler, and GCN products still on the horizon.

[MetalMoon]

yeah, I feel bad for those people waiting for that Mac Pro update.

[840quadra]

Originally Posted by Eidorian

It is a pretty bad time to get new hardware with Ivy Bridge, Trinity, Kepler, and GCN products still on the horizon.

Couldn't agree more. I picked up a Mini last summer as a stop gap, but I am really hoping for something with a touch more HP, and the new hardware.

Figured since I have waited this long (2008 was my last big Mac purchase), I may as well get something with the new architecture.

[Amazing Iceman]

Nothing unexpected here.

[Consultant]

Or that people bought them before the holidays?

[SchneiderMan]

Simple - everyone already owns a Mac. Boom - I'm now an analyst too!

[Rudy69]

I'm waiting for the new iMacs, the minute they come out I'm ordering a 27" with SSD

[LimeiBook86]

The age of the Mac Pro is more than embarrassing at this point... I'm very glad I didn't wait around and went for a fully-loaded 27-inch iMac.

[Ryth]

I'm one of the ones waiting....come on Mac Book Pro refresh...

[Antares]

I know I'm waiting for the next update. As soon as the next iMac is available, I'm buying.

[Peace]

did apple project 20% growth ? If so that means new hardware in march or apple blew it.

[Santabean2000]

Yep, it's a waiting game for many.

Am looking forward to seeing some new MBAs/MBPs one day 'soon'. Will see what the offerings are as I don't absolutely need a new notebook...

But I would like something with a bigger matte screen than the (2009) 13" MBP I have now. Lighter too would be good. The current 13" MBA comes close, but the average graphics and limited RAM are holding it back, for my needs anyway.

[MacVault]

Speaking of iMac, will the next update be a complete redesign? I'm holding out for a minority report-style minimalist, transparent glass design. Current design is way too thick, bezel needs to go, etc. Come on, Apple, take my money!

[Ayemerica]

Originally Posted by Peace

did apple project 20% growth ? If so that means new hardware in march or apple blew it.

I think iPad march 7th and then April iMac. Then a big summer with Mac pro/ Air. With Mountail Lion.

[*LTD*]

Originally Posted by Consultant

Or that people bought them before the holidays?

All I know is that there were record Mac sales last quarter. Show me "soft" at quarter's end, when it'll actually mean something.

[O and A]

Come on Mac Pro Update... or 15 inch macbook pro air.

I'd get an imac but I already have a 27 inch screen.

[azentropy]

Pretty much expected. We are past record refresh waits for Mac Pros and getting close for iMacs. MBP were the last to be updated, but even that was a pretty minor speed bump - it has now been over a year since a major update.

[sparks05]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; CPU iPhone OS 5_0_1 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/534.46 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.1 Mobile/9A405 Safari/7534.48.3)

34 million iPhones this quarter? Holiday quarter all over again.... Wow, that's more than I expected. Apple shares can't stay down at 500 with sales like this... Too much cash flow!

[Ryth]

Originally Posted by O and A

Come on Mac Pro Update... or 15 inch macbook pro air.

I'd get an imac but I already have a 27 inch screen.

I think the MacBookPro 13" is gone and done. I don't know of anyone with one.

I think what you'll see is the the 11-13" is going to be the Mac Air and the 15"-17" will be the Mac Book Pro or Mac Air Pro.

[sucramdi]

I'm waiting for the new iMacs to come out. Any chance they might be redesigned?

[ZZ Bottom]

Originally Posted by Ryth

I think the MacBookPro 13" is gone and done. I don't know of anyone with one.

I think what you'll see is the the 11-13" is going to be the Mac Air and the 15"-17" will be the Mac Book Pro or Mac Air Pro.

Oh your right! You don't know of anyone with a 13" MBP so they must be collecting dust on the shelves... or perhaps you could take a walk on a college campus. You see more 13" MBPs than 15/17s or MBAs by far.

[yAak]

Diablo 3 hasn't come out yet, so I don't need to buy an MBP yet.

[Ryth]

Originally Posted by ZZ Bottom

Oh your right! You don't know of anyone with a 13" MBP so they must be collecting dust on the shelves... or perhaps you could take a walk on a college campus. You see more 13" MBPs than 15/17s or MBAs by far.

Oh...here's a thought.

Those people on college campuses with 13" MacBookPro's don't need them. They are overkill for those journalism majors, etc even with the capabilities they have in the 13".

In the graphics/post world, I have never seen a 13" MacBookPro. 15" & 17" only due to the 13" being worthless due to the lesser video card and processor.