Sweet! Mine just showed up on UPS. That means I'll be getting it hours earlier than expected!
Although we had a general discussion about commitment times earlier in this thread,
if you want to know what your commitment time is, do the following:
1. Go to UPS.com and click "Shipping" then "Calculate time and cost"
2. Enter China, People's Republic of as the from country. Enter ZhengZhou as the from city and 450099 as the postal code.
3. Enter your City and Zip Code as the destination information.
4. Enter today's date as the shipment date.
5. Enter 50 (or some other small figure) for the customs value, it isn't relevant for what we're doing.
6. See what the time says for "UPS Worldwide Express." Ignore the date, as the packages will be held to the 21st.
Now, as a former UPS employee noted earlier in the thread, just because you have a commitment time doesn't mean that UPS can make that time. However, the will try their hardest, because if they don't, Apple is entitled to a full refund on the shipping charges for that package (which, even with the obscene discounts I'm sure they get, is pricey).
Now, if you want to see the process that your iPhone will go through on the way to the destination, go ahead and watch this:
http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/ultimate-factories/videos/ups-worldport/
While west-coast bound packages likely won't go through Worldport (they'll be offloaded in Alaska during a refueling stop and sent to a west coast hub), the video will give you a very good idea of how UPS sorting operations work.