I've a feeling that after the Apple Maps fiasco, people will wise up and move over to either Windows 8 or Android. However, by next year, it's going to be VERY difficult for Apple to stay on top once Blackberry 10 comes out. I've seen the video of a press conference recently showing how the new OS work and it looks really intriquing.
I think Nokia (Windows 8/Mobile) and BB10 will be the turning point. People might say "I'm sick of Apple and Android/Google fighting over this crap like schoolgirls. EFF 'em", and go to Microsoft/RIM's new phones.
There will be another paradigm shift and I can feel it. If there is a chink in Apple's armor, THIS was it. The Maps fiasco just made Apple look like a bunch of jacka$$es. Now I respect the hardware engineering they pulled off, but they should've focused on what's under the hood rather than focusing too much on 'eye candy'.
So, I would'nt be so quick to underestimate Microsoft's new mobile OS and Blackberry's upcoming BB10 OS. If Apple does'nt turn this around by Spring of 2013, they have a massive problem and all the "visigoths" will have surrounded and sacked "Rome" that is Apple.