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Old Nov 2, 2012, 03:22 PM   #1
zioxide
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US adds 171,000 new jobs in October; 25th straight month of job growth

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US ECONOMY ADDS 171K JOBS; RATE RISES TO 7.9 PCT.
BY CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
AP ECONOMICS WRITER

WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. employers added 171,000 jobs in October, and hiring was stronger in August and September than first thought. The solid job growth showed that the economy is strengthening slowly but consistently.

The unemployment rate rose to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent in September. That was mainly because many more people began looking for work, and not all of them found jobs. The government uses a separate survey to calculate the unemployment rate, and it counts people without jobs as unemployed only if they're looking for one.

Friday's report was the last major snapshot of the economy before Tuesday's elections. It's unclear what political effect the report might have. By now, all but a few voters have made up their minds, particularly about the economy, analysts say.

Since July, the economy has created an average of 173,000 jobs a month. That's up from 67,000 a month from April through June. Still, President Barack Obama will face voters with the highest unemployment rate of any incumbent since Franklin Roosevelt and slightly higher than the 7.8 percent on Inauguration Day.

The work force - the number of people either working or looking for work - rose by 578,000 in October. And 410,000 more people said they were employed. The difference is the reason the unemployment rate rose slightly.

The influx of people seeking jobs "could be a sign that people are starting to see better job prospects and so should be read as another positive aspect to the report," said Julia Coronado, an economist at BNP Paribas.
....
Friday's report included a range of encouraging details.

The government revised its data to show that 84,000 more jobs were added in August and September than previously estimated. August's job gains were revised from 142,000 to 192,000, September's from 114,000 to 148,000.

The unemployment rate has fallen a full percentage point in the past 12 months. Much of that decline occurred because people gave up looking for work. That pushed the percentage of Americans working or looking for work to 63.5 percent in August, a 31-year low.

But since then, more Americans have started or resumed their job hunts and most have found work. The percentage of Americans working or looking for work rose for a second straight month in October to 63.8 percent.

The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work dropped last month. And the number of discouraged workers also declined. A measure of unemployment that includes those two groups plus the unemployed dipped to 14.6 percent from 14.7 percent.

The economy has added jobs for 25 straight months. There are now 580,000 more than when Obama took office.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT

More proof that we are making real progress. The rate we are adding jobs has been increasing over the past few months. More people are starting to feel confident and people who had previously stopped looking for work are now starting to look again. We're going in the right direction. Why turn back now?
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 03:56 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by zioxide View Post
More proof that we are making real progress.
If by "real progress" you mean "significant progress," I can't agree.

While the economy is definitely adding jobs, it's a bit misleading to look at 171,000 new jobs for October and take it at face value. It's been estimated that the economy needs to add anywhere from 80,000 to 150,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. Factor that in, and the number of new jobs isn't nearly as impressive as it might appear.

Quote:
There are now 580,000 more than when Obama took office.
Factoring in population growth, there's been a substantial net loss of jobs since he took office.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 04:06 PM   #3
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If by "real progress" you mean "significant progress," I can't agree.

While the economy is definitely adding jobs, it's a bit misleading to look at 171,000 new jobs for October and take it at face value. It's been estimated that the economy needs to add anywhere from 80,000 to 150,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. Factor that in, and the number of new jobs isn't nearly as impressive as it might appear.

Factoring in population growth, there's been a substantial net loss of jobs since he took office.
It's significant because between election day 2008 and the day President Obama took office we were losing jobs at a rate of 800,000 per month. Gaining an average of 173,000 per month is significantly better than losing 800,000 per month.

Obviously it's not where we want or need it to be, but it is progress. You have to learn to walk before you learn to run.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 05:01 PM   #4
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Factoring in population growth, there's been a substantial net loss of jobs since he took office.
Yeah but for about the year after he took office the economy was lossing 6+figures a month. So from when it bottom out that is another story. He took on an economy that was losing over 1/2 a million jobs a month.

Mind you there needs to be more growth as really I look at only things that over 125-150k as real job growth.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 05:22 PM   #5
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Real Unemployment percent

This isn't the real unemployment percentage.. I figure its still close to 15 percent. The Government lies about these figures and doesn't factor in the only reason why the unemployment rate went down is due to the fact that many are already done with their benefits and or given up trying to find work.

Still pretty dismal if you ask me. Add to the fact that the only jobs added were service industry based jobs which pay only 7.25- maybe, if your lucky, 10 or 11 an hour - hardly any change for the better if you ask me.

----------

The sad part is that this number 7.8 is NOT the real unemployment percentage. The government and labor departments only show you the percentage of those who have dropped out looking for employment and or exhausted all of the unemployment benefits - more people fall off unemployment(benefits gone), the lower the number.. but this is NOT the real unemployment percentage by a long shot..

still the job market is dismal. Most of the jobs added according to this article were LOW-paying service industry jobs, hardly anything significant if you ask me. 7.25-11 an hour jobs hardly provide LIVING wages to those who were making top dollars before layoffs or unemployment.

just my .02 - Then again I don't believe anything the government says these days.


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http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT

More proof that we are making real progress. The rate we are adding jobs has been increasing over the past few months. More people are starting to feel confident and people who had previously stopped looking for work are now starting to look again. We're going in the right direction. Why turn back now?
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 05:45 PM   #6
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...the only jobs added were service industry based jobs which pay only 7.25- maybe, if your lucky, 10 or 11 an hour
You might not have a good understanding of what "service industry" jobs are - these are industries that provide services instead of products. Doctors, lawyers, engineers, accountants, etc. I don't think any of them would consider themselves "lucky" to make 10 or 11 an hour.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 05:50 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Tomorrow View Post
You might not have a good understanding of what "service industry" jobs are - these are industries that provide services instead of products. Doctors, lawyers, engineers, accountants, etc. I don't think any of them would consider themselves "lucky" to make 10 or 11 an hour.
What you mean is that those jobs are "professional" service industry jobs which require extensive education and in many cases, state or federal licensing. I don't know why you chose to be obtuse rather than ask for a clarification.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 06:34 PM   #8
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This isn't the real unemployment percentage.. I figure its still close to 15 percent.
This is the rate they have used for as far back as I know. Whether you agree with the methodology of finding the numbers or not, this is the way they are calculated now. Improvement is still improvement even if it's a small amount.

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The Government lies about these figures and doesn't factor in the only reason why the unemployment rate went down is due to the fact that many are already done with their benefits and or given up trying to find work.
This just proves you probably didn't read the article, because the unemployment rate actually increased by 0.1% since last month. However, since we added nearly 175k jobs, the fact that the percentage increased shows that some of the people who had given up looking for work a few months ago are now starting to look again. This is clearly a good thing.

Additionally, from the article:

But since then, more Americans have started or resumed their job hunts, and most have found work. The percentage of Americans working or looking for work rose for a second straight month in October to 63.8 percent.

The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work dropped last month. And the number of people who have stopped looking for work also declined. The so-called underemployment rate, which consists of those two groups plus the unemployed, dipped to 14.6 percent from 14.7 percent.


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Most of the jobs added according to this article were LOW-paying service industry jobs, hardly anything significant if you ask me.
It doesn't say that anywhere in the article.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 06:49 PM   #9
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How many of those jobs are seasonal that will be gone come January?
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 07:44 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by zioxide View Post
This is the rate they have used for as far back as I know. Whether you agree with the methodology of finding the numbers or not, this is the way they are calculated now. Improvement is still improvement even if it's a small amount.
^^^This.

Unless the detractors can prove that this number was derived in a unique way just for the Obama Administration, then it's the same number by which every past administration has been judged.

It's curious how the detractors want to change the basis by which unemployed is judged now that Obama is in office.

Very curious indeed.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 08:52 PM   #11
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How many of those jobs are seasonal that will be gone come January?
The figures will be seasonally adjusted.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 08:54 PM   #12
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As a contractor designing a state unemployment system, doing federal reporting, I can tell you that the reporting formulas have not been changed since at least the Windows 95 era.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 09:11 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by PowerPCMacMan View Post
This isn't the real unemployment percentage.. I figure its still close to 15 percent. The Government lies about these figures and doesn't factor in the only reason why the unemployment rate went down is due to the fact that many are already done with their benefits and or given up trying to find work.

I am just going to point out that the work force has increased not decrease. AKA more people entered the work force so the number dropped with a larger gain in the people entering the work force.
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Old Nov 2, 2012, 09:25 PM   #14
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What you mean is that those jobs are "professional" service industry jobs which require extensive education and in many cases, state or federal licensing. I don't know why you chose to be obtuse rather than ask for a clarification.
"Obtuse?" No, just pointing out a flaw in someone's claim. Think about it, even guys who mow the lawn make more than ten bucks an hour. There's nothing "lucky" about working in a service industry and making more than minimum wage.

In fact, let's think about jobs that do pay minimum wage. Fast food? That's not a service industry. Stocker? That's retail. Warehouse? By definition, you're moving products in a supply chain; not a service industry.

This is an argument based on simple facts. Nothing obtuse about it.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 12:41 AM   #15
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This isn't the real unemployment percentage.. I figure its still close to 15 percent.
Glad we have an expert here who "figures" things out better then all the economist in the country. Without any supporting evidence.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 01:20 AM   #16
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It's both shocking and pathetic how anyone can take an honest look at obamas record and think it is good. I am literally amazed. AMAZED.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 01:26 AM   #17
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It's both shocking and pathetic how anyone can take an honest look at obamas record and think it is good. I am literally amazed. AMAZED.
I see four years of economic recovery despite a Republican Party determined to thwart Obama's every move. Now Romney has little to campaign on ... other than claiming that he'd have done it faster.

To paraphrase a quote I read somewhere ...

It's both shocking and pathetic how anyone can buy the snake oil that Romney is selling. I am literally amazed. AMAZED.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 01:34 AM   #18
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I see four years of economic recovery despite a Republican Party determined to thwart Obama's every move. Now Romney has little to campaign on ... other than claiming that he'd have done it faster.

To paraphrase a quote I read somewhere ...

It's both shocking and pathetic how anyone can buy the snake oil that Romney is selling. I am literally amazed. AMAZED.
We shall see on Tuesday. Your name is fitting.....citizen of the all powerful state. Just the way you like it.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 09:22 AM   #19
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We shall see on Tuesday. Your name is fitting.....citizen of the all powerful state. Just the way you like it.


It is obvious, to all but a few, that he is indeed Citizen Zen.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 02:50 PM   #20
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We shall see on Tuesday. Your name is fitting.....citizen of the all powerful state. Just the way you like it.
You don't need to wait until Tuesday. You can see it in how the campaigns are acting now. When a campaign goes into a state they have avoided (PA) at the last minute, it is a sign of desperation. Even Ann has been in tears this weekend and reflecting back on the campaign..as if it's the day after the election. Except she is doing this before election day. And they are already trying to spin things as being the hurricane's fault. That's not signs of a winning campaign. They know they have lost. A campaign knows.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 03:02 PM   #21
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You don't need to wait until Tuesday. You can see it in how the campaigns are acting now. When a campaign goes into a state they have avoided (PA) at the last minute, it is a sign of desperation. Even Ann has been in tears this weekend and reflecting back on the campaign..as if it's the day after the election. Except she is doing this before election day. And they are already trying to spin things as being the hurricane's fault. That's not signs of a winning campaign. They know they have lost. A campaign knows.
I guess that's a way to spin it. Typically PA has gone (D) and is probably looked at as California or NY so why waste the money? Now that they realize there's a chance maybe they're there to actually try and pull it out.
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