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Old Oct 19, 2012, 03:55 PM   #76
Don't panic
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Originally Posted by myrtlebee View Post
I think you need to do some more research out there in Chicagoland. Obama is not leading there. In fact, he has pretty much written off North Carolina and Florida.
there is no way any of the two 'writes off' florida.

romney is slightly ahead right now in florida, and obama is (barely) ahead in virginia, but the dynamics of the two states are very different and, barred a blow-out from either side, quite independent from each other.
any of the four combos is still possible.
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Old Oct 19, 2012, 04:10 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by lannister80 View Post
Obama is leading in FL. What the hell are you talking about?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp201...s/florida.html
of course if you go look at the current projection map at electoral-vote.com you'll see they have romney ahead in florida
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Old Oct 19, 2012, 04:34 PM   #78
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However if I would of posted - Romney 3, Obama 535 , you wouldn't of took the time to make your little post would you?
Actually I would have. And would have told you much the same thing.

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Thought the title was give your predictions, not flap you gums about others.


Regardless of how much you want to swing this election or I want to swing this election we can only swing it one vote.

My prediction don't mean crap, to anyone other than trying to guess the number on the 6th. It's not going to magically swing the election. So taking time out to cheap shot it ,isn't going to help your guy one way or the other.
Oh, touchy touchy. Must have struck a nerve. This is a DISCUSSION board, hence the discussion part. Not a post and run board. What would be the point of that? You are free to criticize my electoral math. Unlike you I won't get all bent out of shape about it.
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Old Oct 19, 2012, 05:18 PM   #79
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And you think your link is better because?
Disregarding the fact that RCP is one of the few legit news sources that gets away with going about their business without much of a partisan spin (if at all), they actually list dates for their numbers where the other site has an un-plotted graph.
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Old Oct 19, 2012, 05:20 PM   #80
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New Poll: Romney 49 Obama 48 in Florida

In other words, a statistical tie. While either side would be dumb to write off Florida with these latest numbers, Obama still has a pretty good path to 270 without Florida, whereas Romney does not if he loses it.
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Old Oct 19, 2012, 05:31 PM   #81
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Old Oct 19, 2012, 06:27 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by yg17 View Post
New Poll: Romney 49 Obama 48 in Florida

In other words, a statistical tie. While either side would be dumb to write off Florida with these latest numbers, Obama still has a pretty good path to 270 without Florida, whereas Romney does not if he loses it.
I heard the Romney campaign was pulling out some resources from NC and moving to Ohio. I don't think that is a good idea because I think it is too late for him to win Ohio. This should have been done months ago if that was going to be the plan. Too much momentum in Ohio I think. Which means he really needs NC. And yet, they're pulling out of there? Bad idea for them I think.
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Old Oct 19, 2012, 08:13 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by MadeTheSwitch View Post
I heard the Romney campaign was pulling out some resources from NC and moving to Ohio. I don't think that is a good idea because I think it is too late for him to win Ohio. This should have been done months ago if that was going to be the plan. Too much momentum in Ohio I think. Which means he really needs NC. And yet, they're pulling out of there? Bad idea for them I think.
Actually, I think that is quite a good idea. It will be nearly impossible for Mr. Romney to win without Ohio. He needs to make a full-blown last minute effort there. North Carolina is safely Romney. Obama has given up in North Carolina. He's still putting effort into Virginia - he was in Fairfax today - but his focus has clearly left NC. Hopefully Mitt puts all of his attention on Ohio and Obama slips through the side door and snatches Nevada and/or Colorado.
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Old Oct 19, 2012, 08:17 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by myrtlebee View Post
Actually, I think that is quite a good idea. It will be nearly impossible for Mr. Romney to win without Ohio. He needs to make a full-blown last minute effort there. North Carolina is safely Romney. Obama has given up in North Carolina. He's still putting effort into Virginia - he was in Fairfax today - but his focus has clearly left NC. Hopefully Mitt puts all of his attention on Ohio and Obama slips through the side door and snatches Nevada and/or Colorado.
This begs the question to be asked.

We know now for a fact that Romney would need to sweep all of the other swing states to win if he lost Ohio. So let's turn the tables.

Let's say (hypothetically) that Romney wins Ohio. What would Obama need to get the 270 EC votes for a second term?

BL.
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Old Oct 19, 2012, 09:16 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by bradl View Post
This begs the question to be asked.

We know now for a fact that Romney would need to sweep all of the other swing states to win if he lost Ohio. So let's turn the tables.

Let's say (hypothetically) that Romney wins Ohio. What would Obama need to get the 270 EC votes for a second term?

BL.
Well, just play with the CNN map in the link in the OP's first post. Obama could do it by winning New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa. Or submit Virginia or Florida in there in exchange for any of those (although, in my opinion less likely). It's certainly possible... and a lot more conceivable than Romney winning without Ohio, obviously.
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Old Oct 20, 2012, 03:40 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by myrtlebee View Post
Actually, I think that is quite a good idea. It will be nearly impossible for Mr. Romney to win without Ohio. He needs to make a full-blown last minute effort there. North Carolina is safely Romney. Obama has given up in North Carolina. He's still putting effort into Virginia - he was in Fairfax today - but his focus has clearly left NC. Hopefully Mitt puts all of his attention on Ohio and Obama slips through the side door and snatches Nevada and/or Colorado.
I disagree. If you go by my original post, I said this would have been a good idea, MONTHS ago. But now? So close to the election? When the gap in Ohio is so large? It's too late. Meanwhile pulling out of NC which is a close race, could allow Obama to put resources back into that state and tipping the balance because the gap is smaller there then Ohio.

It wouldn't have been a mistake to make this move weeks ago. But it is now I think. I just don't think Romney can overcome the gap in Ohio in that little amount of time. And this points to the incompetence of the campaign. KNOWING that no Republican has EVER won the White House without winning Ohio, why would you have totally loaded up on that state to begin with? It was always a must win state for him. And yet, it seems like it was not treated that way.
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Old Oct 20, 2012, 03:45 PM   #87
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Okay...we shall see. I cannot wait to see the demographic data for Virginia's election results. It should be interesting.
Okay, so, I just got back from volunteering for Organizing for America Virginia. I was there for almost 3 hours. We did calling to gauge support and encourage volunteering and I have to say, I was surprised by what I heard.

We called all registered voters - Republicans, Democrats, independents, and 3rd party. Those who actually spoke with me were literally 60% + for Obama. Without giving away my exact location, I can tell you that this was not in Northern Virginia, nor did I contact anyone in Northern Virginia.

The only Romney supporters I got mentioned 3 things: "Obama hasn't kept his promises over the 4 years", "too much welfare", "we are against Obamacare". The others simply said "not Obama". Those who were Romney supporters were very curt, but not disrespectful. Most Romney voters were 65+ years old.

The Obama supporters were VERY enthusiastic, firm, and cordial. Not a single mention about abortion or Governor Bob's vaginal ultrasounds. Over and over all I heard was about Romney's flip flopping and how they can't trust him. One woman (an older lady without a computer or cell phone) wished to get in contact with the main Virginia Democratic Party's headquarters so that she could suggest that the Obama campaign run a TV ad featuring Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich calling Romney a liar in the Republican primaries. I told her it was a great idea and give her the number for the office!

I don't know if my list just happened to skew Democratic or what, but I think I'm wrong. Virginia is likely 50-50 and is very much still in play. That said, didn't see a single Obama yard sign on my way home!
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Old Oct 21, 2012, 01:50 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by myrtlebee View Post
Okay, so, I just got back from volunteering for Organizing for America Virginia. I was there for almost 3 hours. We did calling to gauge support and encourage volunteering and I have to say, I was surprised by what I heard.

We called all registered voters - Republicans, Democrats, independents, and 3rd party. Those who actually spoke with me were literally 60% + for Obama. Without giving away my exact location, I can tell you that this was not in Northern Virginia, nor did I contact anyone in Northern Virginia.

The only Romney supporters I got mentioned 3 things: "Obama hasn't kept his promises over the 4 years", "too much welfare", "we are against Obamacare". The others simply said "not Obama". Those who were Romney supporters were very curt, but not disrespectful. Most Romney voters were 65+ years old.

The Obama supporters were VERY enthusiastic, firm, and cordial. Not a single mention about abortion or Governor Bob's vaginal ultrasounds. Over and over all I heard was about Romney's flip flopping and how they can't trust him. One woman (an older lady without a computer or cell phone) wished to get in contact with the main Virginia Democratic Party's headquarters so that she could suggest that the Obama campaign run a TV ad featuring Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich calling Romney a liar in the Republican primaries. I told her it was a great idea and give her the number for the office!

I don't know if my list just happened to skew Democratic or what, but I think I'm wrong. Virginia is likely 50-50 and is very much still in play. That said, didn't see a single Obama yard sign on my way home!
Very good to hear. Not sure what to make of the yard sign thing other then to say maybe they aren't investing in yard signs as much this time around? Cause in my neighborhood which tends to lean Republican, and where I saw some McCain signs, there aren't any for Romney. Or Obama for that matter. Lots of local issue signs though. It's a very strange election.

Oh, and an update on earlier discussion: Romney campaign claims it is only moving one person out of NC, and that they still have a ground game there. So NC is still in play I guess. Still think Romney might win that one though. Although, when thinking back to the DNC convention I remember out of all those many people outside on the newscast, only ONE was a Republican. And the Dems were REALLY enthusiastic. It gave me hope as up to that point I got the feeling no one cared either way. That was my first real visual indication that the average people on the street were fired up about this race. Whereas the people outside the RNC convention had a mix of roughly 50/50 and the Dems didn't look as excited there. I found that very interesting.

I still think FL will go to Romney. NC though, just not sure about either way. It's probably my biggest question mark on the map.
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Old Oct 21, 2012, 03:05 PM   #89
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Very good to hear. Not sure what to make of the yard sign thing other then to say maybe they aren't investing in yard signs as much this time around? Cause in my neighborhood which tends to lean Republican, and where I saw some McCain signs, there aren't any for Romney. Or Obama for that matter. Lots of local issue signs though. It's a very strange election.

Oh, and an update on earlier discussion: Romney campaign claims it is only moving one person out of NC, and that they still have a ground game there. So NC is still in play I guess. Still think Romney might win that one though. Although, when thinking back to the DNC convention I remember out of all those many people outside on the newscast, only ONE was a Republican. And the Dems were REALLY enthusiastic. It gave me hope as up to that point I got the feeling no one cared either way. That was my first real visual indication that the average people on the street were fired up about this race. Whereas the people outside the RNC convention had a mix of roughly 50/50 and the Dems didn't look as excited there. I found that very interesting.

I still think FL will go to Romney. NC though, just not sure about either way. It's probably my biggest question mark on the map.
Yeah, I heard that about Romney only pulling out one person. I guess my biggest question mark state now would be Virginia (surprisingly) and I've been looking at Nevada more lately - I'm not sure it's possible to predict Nevada. I mean, the economy there leaves much to be desired, but the demographics...
Anyway, I think this sums it up best "It's a very strange election." To be at a point in history where the best person we can choose to run against the President of the United States is a serial-lying, empty-suit, vulture capitalist who is running even in the polls, it's a new all time low.
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Old Oct 21, 2012, 04:39 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by ugahairydawgs View Post
Disregarding the fact that RCP is one of the few legit news sources that gets away with going about their business without much of a partisan spin (if at all), they actually list dates for their numbers where the other site has an un-plotted graph.
You mean like

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/pres_polls.html
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Old Oct 21, 2012, 08:55 PM   #91
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I stand corrected. It wasn't listed on the state breakdown that was posted, so I didn't go looking for it.
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Old Oct 21, 2012, 09:30 PM   #92
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Nate Silver's 538 blog is the only accurate prediction out there. Nate is always right. As of today:

Electoral votes:

288 Obama
250 Romney

Chances of winning:

67.6% Obama
32.4% Romney

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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Old Oct 22, 2012, 03:16 PM   #93
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Yeah, I heard that about Romney only pulling out one person. I guess my biggest question mark state now would be Virginia (surprisingly) and I've been looking at Nevada more lately - I'm not sure it's possible to predict Nevada. I mean, the economy there leaves much to be desired, but the demographics...
Anyway, I think this sums it up best "It's a very strange election." To be at a point in history where the best person we can choose to run against the President of the United States is a serial-lying, empty-suit, vulture capitalist who is running even in the polls, it's a new all time low.
Yeah, Nevada is a questionable one for me as well. Second on my list only to NC. And you are totally right. It is sad when Romney is the alternative. But the people he ran against were even more out of touch. I am hoping the Republicans get their house in order and have some decent alternatives next time instead of the circus they presented to everyone this time. It would be nice if one of the third parties started having more of an impact too. People shouldn't have to feel like their only choice is to write "none of the above" on their ballots.
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Old Oct 23, 2012, 05:26 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by Jackintosh View Post
Nate Silver's 538 blog is the only accurate prediction out there. Nate is always right. As of today:

Electoral votes:

288 Obama
250 Romney

Chances of winning:

67.6% Obama
32.4% Romney

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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Originally Posted by MadeTheSwitch View Post
Yeah, Nevada is a questionable one for me as well.
I have to agree with these above. However, NPR just released their interactive scorecard so I've been playing with that. That, plus FiveThirtyEight give me this:

Obama: WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, OH, MD, DE, PA, NY, CT, RI, NH, MA, ME, HI, DC = 281.

Romney: AZ, UT, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, IN, AL, GA, NC, SC, FL, VA, WV, AK = 235.

CO and VA are tossups. I'd even through Romney a bone and give him NH, which nets him another 4 votes, putting him at 239, but without OH and a chance at a huge upheaval in WI, Romney would have a very slim to no chance.

Obama Needs OH + WI + 6 (IA or NV) to win. Both have been known to vote blue, as there are more Blues in Vegas and Reno than Reds in the rest of the state, and IA has become pretty progressive over the past few years. This also puts NH out of the big picture should this actually occur. But right now, this is nearly Obama's election to lose.

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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:18 AM   #95
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Does anyone else wish to place their bet? At this point, I don't think anyone can be completely sure about what's going to happen -- at least I know I'm not so sure about my original map anymore.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:56 AM   #96
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I think Obama ends up taking CO, NC and FL. Recent polling has been in his favor. Therefore, my final prediction for this election is:



It's basically the 2008 map minus Indiana and one of Nebraska's electoral votes.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:58 AM   #97
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Does anyone else wish to place their bet? At this point, I don't think anyone can be completely sure about what's going to happen -- at least I know I'm not so sure about my original map anymore.
Same here. Tuesday will be interesting for no other reason than to see if all of the polling models that have gotten some scrutiny in the battlegrounds were sampling correctly.

If I had to put money on it I'd still say that Obama wins EC with somewhere in the neighborhood of 275-280 electoral votes and Romney takes the popular vote.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 12:03 PM   #98
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Like everyone else is saying, it's basically 237-206 Obama with 8 states too close to call right now.

Wisconsin
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Colorado
Florida
Virginia
Ohio

I'm inclined to put Wisconsin and Nevada in Obama's column, 538 has him over 90% in Wisconsin and 88% in Nevada.

That puts Obama at 253. I think the President also wins Ohio (271), Iowa (277) and New Hampshire (281). Romney wins Florida (235). Virginia and Colorado are too close to call right now but Obama's already over the magic number without these two states so it doesn't really matter. But basically Obama ends up between 277 and 303. And I think 303, which would give him Virginia and Colorado, is probably the most likely scenario.

It's also worth noting that if the President carries WI, IA, and NV, he can win the election by picking up CO and NH even if he loses FL, OH, and VA.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 03:33 PM   #99
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Like everyone else is saying, it's basically 237-206 Obama with 8 states too close to call right now.

Wisconsin
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Colorado
Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Wow. I don't think those are too close to call at all for me now. I give all of them to Obama except Florida which I think Romney will win, and possibly Colorado which is a total toss up to me.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 03:54 PM   #100
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I think all the pollsters and Nate Silver are wrong.

This will be a landslide for either romney or obama.
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