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View Poll Results: What do you think will happen?
Romney, electoral and popular win, by a comfortable margin 15 13.27%
Romney, electoral and popular win, by a razor-thin margin 11 9.73%
Romney, electoral loss but popular win 12 10.62%
Obama, electoral loss but popular win 1 0.88%
Obama, electoral and popular win, by a razor-thin margin 36 31.86%
Obama, electoral and popular win, by a comfortable margin 38 33.63%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Nov 3, 2012, 09:49 AM   #1
Thomas Veil
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It's time to make your final predictions

What do you think is going to happen?

Regarding the poll, by a "razor-thin margin", I mean something resembling Florida 2000 or Ohio 2004.

Personally I don't think that's going to happen. I think we'll be surprised to see Obama win by a margin which is not narrow enough to be challenged via courts or recounts.

The only real wild card I see is whether states that have been ravaged by Sandy will be able to get their voting systems up and running on time.

Last edited by Thomas Veil; Nov 3, 2012 at 10:01 AM.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 10:03 AM   #2
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Not gonna make a prediction.

Just going to live with whatever happens.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 10:16 AM   #3
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I think Romney gets the popular vote while Obama picks up enough swing states by narrow margins to win the electoral college. Hopefully if this happens then the fact that both parties will have had an election stolen from them in the space of 12 years will be enough for them to work together to get rid of the electoral college.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 04:48 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by mrkramer View Post
I think Romney gets the popular vote while Obama picks up enough swing states by narrow margins to win the electoral college. Hopefully if this happens then the fact that both parties will have had an election stolen from them in the space of 12 years will be enough for them to work together to get rid of the electoral college.
But is the Electoral College a bad thing?

Why would any national candidate campaign in a rural or less populated area without it? We'd only see candidates in densely populated urban areas and large state where they can reach the most people.

Simply put, it helps balance the urban and rural areas and the densely and sparsely populated states.

Abolishing it altogether is highly unlikely since it would require a constitutional amendment. Too many small and less populous states would easily block it.

I say keep the Electoral College, but reform it so that it's impossible to win without a majority of people voting for you.

Personally - I don't expect a scenario this year where one candidate loses the popular vote and wins the electoral vote. Nor do I expect a tie.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 05:38 PM   #5
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But is the Electoral College a bad thing?
Yes. <Well, you asked.>

Under its auspices, some people are more equal than others.

And how old is this fabled institution?

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One of the accidental results of the development of political parties was that in the presidential election of 1800, the Electors of the Democratic-Republican Party gave Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr (both of that party) an equal number of electoral votes. The tie was resolved by the House of Representatives in Jefferson's favor - but only after 36 tries and some serious political dealings which were considered unseemly at the time.

Since this sort of bargaining over the presidency was the very thing the Electoral College was supposed to prevent, the Congress and the States hastily adopted the Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution by September of 1804.
Source.

So, let us take the 12th Amendment as the start.

In the time since we have come to conquere many fields, yet having this political 'bible' updated is a harder task than changing the actual scriptures themselves.

Last edited by iJohnHenry; Nov 3, 2012 at 05:53 PM.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 05:49 PM   #6
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But is the Electoral College a bad thing?

Why would any national candidate campaign in a rural or less populated area without it? We'd only see candidates in densely populated urban areas and large state where they can reach the most people.

Simply put, it helps balance the urban and rural areas and the densely and sparsely populated states.

Abolishing it altogether is highly unlikely since it would require a constitutional amendment. Too many small and less populous states would easily block it.

I say keep the Electoral College, but reform it so that it's impossible to win without a majority of people voting for you.

Personally - I don't expect a scenario this year where one candidate loses the popular vote and wins the electoral vote. Nor do I expect a tie.
The biggest problem is they only car about a small handful of states and are very willing to bend over backwards to make those small handful of states happy. Solid Red or Blue states get the short end of the stick and are always ground for political punishment.
Both Bush and Obama did political punishment to the solid states and did a lot of special things for the swing states no matter how they voted.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 06:43 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwiftLives View Post
But is the Electoral College a bad thing?

Why would any national candidate campaign in a rural or less populated area without it? We'd only see candidates in densely populated urban areas and large state where they can reach the most people.

Simply put, it helps balance the urban and rural areas and the densely and sparsely populated states.

Abolishing it altogether is highly unlikely since it would require a constitutional amendment. Too many small and less populous states would easily block it.
Yeah, and what about California? ~13% of the population yet neither Romney nor Obama have spent 13% of their campaigning time here.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 06:54 PM   #8
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My predictions:

1. Romney by a large lead or a small lead

2. Obama by a small lead
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 06:56 PM   #9
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My predictions:

1. Romney by a large lead or a small lead

2. Obama by a small lead
We need to have a coffee together.

How is next Wednesday morning suit you?
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 06:57 PM   #10
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My predictions ...
Following AlaskaMoose's lead, I also boldly predict that either Romney or Obama will win.

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Old Nov 3, 2012, 06:58 PM   #11
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I agree the EC isn't perfect (which is an understatement). Pragmatically speaking, a simple majority should win the election. Without the EC, would we see any campaigning in non-urban and low populated areas?

Granted, we only see campaigning in a select number of "swing states" which don't seem to change all that much between election cycles. Without the EC, we'd see campaigning in even fewer "swing cities."

It should at least be reformed. That would be far easier to do than abolishing it. One congressman has put forward an idea to award the winner of the popular vote an additional number of electoral votes. I like this solution. (Can't remember the name right off hand...)
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 07:07 PM   #12
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Without the EC, we'd see campaigning in even fewer "swing cities."
How is this even a problem?

In this day and age these areas are fully capable of knowing each candidate's position, if they have one.

Is the issue simply the economic boost that candidates would bring to that state? If so, that's really simplistic.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 07:08 PM   #13
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Obama will win the electoral college. By how much and whether he will get the popular vote I couldn't say.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 07:19 PM   #14
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Yeah, and what about California? ~13% of the population yet neither Romney nor Obama have spent 13% of their campaigning time here.
If California weren't guaranteed to vote left of Lenin, it would make sense to campaign there. The state hasn't gone Republican since 1988. So why would either party waste the time? Candidates spend time and money where the EC isn't a lock.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 07:48 PM   #15
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 07:54 PM   #16
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My predictions:

1. Romney by a large lead or a small lead

2. Obama by a small lead
Mitt!?
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 07:57 PM   #17
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If California weren't guaranteed to vote left of Lenin, it would make sense to campaign there. The state hasn't gone Republican since 1988. So why would either party waste the time? Candidates spend time and money where the EC isn't a lock.
I hope you're being humorous right ? Left of Lenin ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenin
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:02 PM   #18
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I hope you're being humorous right ? Left of Lenin?
Point.

Maybe he can use left of Pol Pot, if it isn't taken?
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:05 PM   #19
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I don't know if I find it more shocking that Katy Perry seems to have more brains than Lindsey Lohan. I know it's a tall task, but my respect for Perry has risen quite a bit.

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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:05 PM   #20
citizenzen
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I hope you're being humorous right ? Left of Lenin ?
He/she overlooks the fact that the majority (by a good number) of Californian governors have been Republican.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:12 PM   #21
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My prediction is 538 will be largely correct yet again. Obama wins buy a small, but indisputable margin in the PV and by a fair amount in the EC.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:19 PM   #22
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My other prediction, with 100% accuracy, is that all of these damned political ads will be gone and we won't have to worry about them inundating our ears every other minute of the bloody day.

If they don't make you want to jump off a cliff, having the radio stations play 24 hours of Christmas music until Christmas Day will.

BL.
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:26 PM   #23
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My predictions:

1. Romney by a large lead or a small lead

2. Obama by a small lead
Wow. You commit to one position about as good as Romney does! LOL
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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:34 PM   #24
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My other prediction, with 100% accuracy, is that all of these damned political ads will be gone and we won't have to worry about them inundating our ears every other minute of the bloody day.
Let's see how fast the GOP forgets about the Benghazi attack after the election.

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If they don't make you want to jump off a cliff, having the radio stations play 24 hours of Christmas music until Christmas Day will.

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Old Nov 3, 2012, 08:42 PM   #25
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But is the Electoral College a bad thing?

Why would any national candidate campaign in a rural or less populated area without it? We'd only see candidates in densely populated urban areas and large state where they can reach the most people.

Simply put, it helps balance the urban and rural areas and the densely and sparsely populated states.

Abolishing it altogether is highly unlikely since it would require a constitutional amendment. Too many small and less populous states would easily block it.

I say keep the Electoral College, but reform it so that it's impossible to win without a majority of people voting for you.

Personally - I don't expect a scenario this year where one candidate loses the popular vote and wins the electoral vote. Nor do I expect a tie.
The electoral college means that my vote in California doesn't really count. Which I guess is nice since then I don't have to hear as many adds for the presidential election, but still if the Republicans ever ran an actually good candidate or there was a viable third party I'd like to be able to vote for them and not have my vote canceled out by the rest of the state going one way. And the Electoral college doesn't really balance urban and rural, all it does is make the campaign happen in a couple swing states with fundraising stops in the safe states.
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