Prediction: Android apps to swamp Apples

[JonL12345]

With Android selling 5 times the number of phones in Q3 of 2012 than Apple, that can only mean one thing. Android apps are going to grow in number so fast that Apple's app store is going to look puny by comparison.

Think about it. If the Android market is 5 times the size of Apple's and growing month on month, its obvious where the money is. Watch this space. I think we are going to see something spectacular.

This will leave future Apple product reveal events as something where they no longer quote statistics, because they will be all against them!

Jon

[Technarchy]

Maybe someday when android users pay for more apps and content.

Till then, the greater profit potential is still all iOS...by a huge margin.

[MikeAK]

I believe change is inevitable. Apple have been atop for years and it's now becoming obvious that Android is on the rise. Devs are going to want to be apart of this and cash in before the rest. Android has gone through it's trials and errors and is now looking like it has a strong future. I am not sure if the Google store will "swamp" Apple's but I think one would have to be quite ignorant to deny that Android has a bright future.

[Dr McKay]

Then the same people who tout the App Store having more apps than the Google Play Store will suddenly go on about how the App Store has more "quality" apps, as this is something that cannot be proven or disproved, they'll spout it forever.

[nuckinfutz]

Originally Posted by JonL12345

With Android selling 5 times the number of phones in Q3 of 2012 than Apple, that can only mean one thing. Android apps are going to grow in number so fast that Apple's app store is going to look puny by comparison.

Think about it. If the Android market is 5 times the size of Apple's and growing month on month, its obvious where the money is. Watch this space. I think we are going to see something spectacular.

This will leave future Apple product reveal events as something where they no longer quite statistics, because they will be all against them!

Jon

Jon you've never made a prediction that has come true.

Didn't Eric Schmidt say that by summer developers would be writing for Android first? On yes he did and here was a follow up.

http://www.idownloadblog.com/2012/06...-survey-20120/

He also said many tv would have Google TV in them and guess what?

They don't even let you order the Nexus Q HHAHAHAH.

Android users don't pay money for apps. Developers owe their existence to people paying for apps unless you're Angry Birds.

Apple developer tools are far better. This isn't going to happen.

Sorry

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Originally Posted by MikeAK

I believe change is inevitable. Apple have been atop for years and it's now becoming obvious that Android is on the rise. Devs are going to want to be apart of this and cash in before the rest. Android has gone through it's trials and errors and is now looking like it has a strong future. I am not sure if the Google store will "swamp" Apple's but I think one would have to be quite ignorant to deny that Android has a bright future.

I can deny it when there's Windows coming with the Surface and Windows 8 phones.

Android is a free OS. Which means every hardware hack in China and Taiwan can slap together the crappiest mix of hardware and toss on some old Gingerbread garbage.

Yeah. If I'm a developer I'm gonna just stake my future on that market </sarcasm>

[irDigital0l]

That may be true...

Yet, people BUY more apps on the App Store, developers prefer to MAKE apps on the App Store, and more money is GENERATED on the App Store.

That get to the facts...go Google Play site and look at it. Google does have some of their own apps (Google Maps) but everything else is basically ported from the App Store with fewer apps and games.

I would love Google Play to be on par with the App Store so I could get an Android device but its still no where close although its improving.

For starters...
1. Add Infinity Blade II and Fieldrunners 2 :P
2. Make the Google Play site less crappy

[paulsalter]

IMO, for this we need to see less devices on the older OS's

Stop selling device that come with anything less than ICS
Developers can concentrate on Apps for JB/ICS

It will annoy some people who have devices on older versions (me included), but development needs to move forward, concentrate on features out now

More apps need updating to support Android 4.x and above & NOT Android 2.X and above

[jsw]

Google Play won't become a truly viable marketplace until Google enforces DRM on at least some tier of apps, period.

I love Google Play. I've gotten a ton of apps off it for my Nexus 7. There's a lot there that's really useful... but without DRM, there's a lot more of the really choice apps which are missing.

It's not because Android is harder to develop for - it's not. Java/eclipse/etc. are well known and easy to use, and the Android frameworks aren't bad. Xcode/Objective-C/Apple's frameworks are great as well, but there's at least as much of a learning curve there as on Android.

To me, it all has to do with DRM. Once you have that, and have more of the top-shelf apps, most people will buy them, and the profits lost to pirates won't be substantially worse than those lost to pirates via Jailbreak on iOS devices.

Then it will be a true horserace.

No, wait, once Google gets people to upgrade as well as Apple does, then it will be a true horserace. Supporting a million fractured versions will never truly pan out well.

[onthecouchagain]

For consideration: http://www.phonearena.com/news/Reven...nd-iOS_id35982

"Revenue from freemium apps shoots up, paid ones stagnate on both Android and iOS"

Difficult to see, the future is. Always in motion...

[tdream]

Needs more users to start using ICS minimum.

As of the start of last month a quarter of total android users are using ICS and above. And only 1-2% are on Jelly Bean. That's crap no matter how you look at it. IMO anything pre ICS looks incredible ugly. The only reason I switched was because ICS finally brought Android up to speed as a viable competitor to Apple. Now the apps need to follow suit.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/10/02/i...droid-devices/

Another thing that annoys me about Google. I tried to buy my first Android app today and it wants my passport and address documentation. I didn't need to give Apple that to buy apps. Kind of bad when you think about it.

[Tarzanman]

Android user here. App piracy is certainly viable if you want to go that route (probably even easier than on iOS), but adware (free apps with advertisements) is an easier and pain-free alternative.

I still don't consider my tablets efficient tools for productive work, but they are a fun stop gap

[Rodimus Prime]

Originally Posted by jsw

Google Play won't become a truly viable marketplace until Google enforces DRM on at least some tier of apps, period.

I love Google Play. I've gotten a ton of apps off it for my Nexus 7. There's a lot there that's really useful... but without DRM, there's a lot more of the really choice apps which are missing.

It's not because Android is harder to develop for - it's not. Java/eclipse/etc. are well known and easy to use, and the Android frameworks aren't bad. Xcode/Objective-C/Apple's frameworks are great as well, but there's at least as much of a learning curve there as on Android.

To me, it all has to do with DRM. Once you have that, and have more of the top-shelf apps, most people will buy them, and the profits lost to pirates won't be substantially worse than those lost to pirates via Jailbreak on iOS devices.

Then it will be a true horserace.

No, wait, once Google gets people to upgrade as well as Apple does, then it will be a true horserace. Supporting a million fractured versions will never truly pan out well.

I am going to point out Google already does that. When you upload your app you are given the choice on if you want to put in licencing and that does some stuff to the APK to put the DRM. It has been a while since i looked into it but I do know they have had it for quite a while. It used to be encrypting the APK threw Google which sadly would almost double its size but it did do that. The licencing is newer and Google handles that as well. Both are 100% free to devs. Hell even Amazon does it as well for its Apps. Yes they appear to be side loaded but Amazon is handling the security and DRM part. Linking them to the account just like Google does for its user accounts.

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Originally Posted by Technarchy

Maybe someday when android users pay for more apps and content.

Till then, the greater profit potential is still all iOS...by a huge margin.

problem is we need more recent numbers that compare a set range (say only the past year) Android has been climbing and Apple has been falling.

[cnev3]

Android has always had the lions share of the mobile market. Both app stores have been around for years, yet you still have great apps that are not coming out on Android. The two most recent ones that come to mind are Punch Quest and NFS Most Wanted. Two very good games.

[iAi]

Originally Posted by cnev3

Android has always had the lions share of the mobile market. Both app stores have been around for years, yet you still have great apps that are not coming out on Android. The two most recent ones that come to mind are Punch Quest and NFS Most Wanted. Two very good games.

Thanks! Downloaded at my fantastic iPad mini.

[Vegastouch]

Originally Posted by Technarchy

Maybe someday when android users pay for more apps and content.

Till then, the greater profit potential is still all iOS...by a huge margin.

That is year old data. Android has nearly as many Apps now and this past year millions and millions of Android phones have been sold at a bigger pace than ever before and gained a much bigger market share while Apples has gone down.

I dont know why we keep comparing the App stores. Who gives a crap. There are hundreds of thousands of Apps in both and the average user dont even use 100 of them and the Apps, from what i use are about the same in comparison.

[kdarling]

I wonder if anyone has taken the time to analyze the various app stores and determine exactly how many unique categories of apps there are.

Personally, I suspect that there's less than 10,000 unique types of apps even possible. Maybe even less than 3,000. Every app is just a copy or variation on those.

--

Surveys show that most people use just a handful of apps every day, and that over a quarter of downloaded apps are only used once.

Everyone has their favorites, including some they just have to have. I remember a lot of people avoided the iPhone until Slingplayer was ported to it, for example.

Likewise, I usually use 7" Android tablets for casual web surfing, but if I want to watch TV via the Optimum app, my only choice right now is my iPad.

[onthecouchagain]

Hey, the devoted iPhone fans have to have something to cling onto!

Be it the milliseconds of screen response time (still no real numbers to actually articulate or prove exactly what that difference is, if any) or the vital few apps that Android doesn't have yet.

Really, is there anything else? It's down to nitpicking little things and then declaring them deal breakers. There once was a time when a non-retina display was a deal breaker (suddenly iPad Mini). There was once a time when larger screen devices was a deal breaker (Hello iPhone 5, and hello iPad Mini that can apparently be used with one hand according to Apple). People are free to choose whatever they want to use, of course, but make no mistake, the list behind the reasons have gotten shorter and less consequential since a year ago.

The one, and only one thing left that I will never challenge, however, is Apple's customer service, which I can still get with my macs and iPad. Alas, not with my smartphone.

[LIVEFRMNYC]

Originally Posted by Technarchy

Maybe someday when android users pay for more apps and content.

Till then, the greater profit potential is still all iOS...by a huge margin.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology...ina-smartphone

Originally Posted by onthecouchagain

The one, and only one thing left that I will never challenge, however, is Apple's customer service, which I can still get with my macs and iPad. Alas, not with my smartphone.

I have nothing but praise for their customer service. Apple takes the cake on that.

[jsw]

Originally Posted by Rodimus Prime

I am going to point out Google already does that. When you upload your app you are given the choice on if you want to put in licencing and that does some stuff to the APK to put the DRM. It has been a while since i looked into it but I do know they have had it for quite a while. It used to be encrypting the APK threw Google which sadly would almost double its size but it did do that. The licencing is newer and Google handles that as well. Both are 100% free to devs. Hell even Amazon does it as well for its Apps. Yes they appear to be side loaded but Amazon is handling the security and DRM part. Linking them to the account just like Google does for its user accounts.

Excellent, and I (clearly) didn't know that. I've only created apps (simple ones) while playing around with the SDK.

One less barrier, and I think we'll see app parity even sooner now.

[kas23]

Originally Posted by Technarchy

Maybe someday when android users pay for more apps and content.

Till then, the greater profit potential is still all iOS...by a huge margin.

I think we need some updated statistics.

[tdream]

Originally Posted by cnev3

Android has always had the lions share of the mobile market. Both app stores have been around for years, yet you still have great apps that are not coming out on Android. The two most recent ones that come to mind are Punch Quest and NFS Most Wanted. Two very good games.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/d...ames.nfs13_row

[Rodimus Prime]

Originally Posted by jsw

Excellent, and I (clearly) didn't know that. I've only created apps (simple ones) while playing around with the SDK.

One less barrier, and I think we'll see app parity even sooner now.

yeah you would not even see the option until you consider uploading an app to the play store. It been that way since at the very least android 2.2 (if not even longer) Just the double the size of the App was a problem and why many choice not to go that direction because this was before you could move stuff to the sd card so app space was very limited.

I know in 2.3 they moved to the licensing system and deprecated the encrypting app system and even made it clear they were going to remove that ability and force you to go with the licensing system.

[Oletros]

Originally Posted by cnev3

Android has always had the lions share of the mobile market. Both app stores have been around for years, yet you still have great apps that are not coming out on Android. The two most recent ones that come to mind are Punch Quest and NFS Most Wanted. Two very good games.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/d...ames.nfs13_row

[TheHateMachine]

Not enough devs take advantage of the Licensing system. If you attempt to pirate programs that use it you have to jump through tons of hoops and end up getting a half functioning app.

Not sure why more devs do not use it.

[Oletros]

Originally Posted by kdarling

I wonder if anyone has taken the time to analyze the various app stores and determine exactly how many unique categories of apps there are.

Personally, I suspect that there's less than 10,000 unique types of apps even possible. Maybe even less than 3,000. Every app is just a copy or variation on those.

And not taking into account that more than only 15% of apps in the App Store/Play Store have any download. 85% of all the apps are never downloaded