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Old Nov 4, 2012, 03:10 PM   #1
MadeTheSwitch
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If Romney is so great, why can't he win his home state?

I have asked this question before but have never got an answer from conservatives, so with a few days left to go, I thought I would ask the question one last time separately.

Why can't Mitt win MA? He won there before. And yet they do not want to elect him for office again. Why? Could it be that pesky low 34% approval rate he had when he left office?

What are your reasons? To me is seems kind of embarrassing that he can't win a state he has won before. But I'm not sure why that is. Maybe some conservatives or someone who voted for him before can shed some light on that.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 03:11 PM   #2
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Why didn't Al Gore?
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 03:14 PM   #3
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Why didn't Al Gore?
Because he also lost the presidential race? You should stay on topic.

As for what the OP asked, it's romnesia, it's like it never happened.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 03:27 PM   #4
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If Romney is so great, why can't he win his home state?
That's a legitimate question. For example, Mondale won his home state (even though Reagan still squeeked by for a second term).
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 03:29 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by MadeTheSwitch View Post
I have asked this question before but have never got an answer from conservatives, so with a few days left to go, I thought I would ask the question one last time separately.

Why can't Mitt win MA? He won there before. And yet they do not want to elect him for office again. Why? Could it be that pesky low 34% approval rate he had when he left office?

What are your reasons? To me is seems kind of embarrassing that he can't win a state he has won before. But I'm not sure why that is. Maybe some conservatives or someone who voted for him before can shed some light on that.
Maybe they can't. Maybe that 34% rate answers your question and not even conservatives can put on a spin on this one. They act like Romney himself when someone asks him why he still supported that "god intended rape babies to be born" guy.... we hear nothing, we hear nothing, we hear nothing....
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 03:42 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by MadeTheSwitch View Post
I have asked this question before but have never got an answer from conservatives, so with a few days left to go, I thought I would ask the question one last time separately.

Why can't Mitt win MA? He won there before. And yet they do not want to elect him for office again. Why? Could it be that pesky low 34% approval rate he had when he left office?

What are your reasons? To me is seems kind of embarrassing that he can't win a state he has won before. But I'm not sure why that is. Maybe some conservatives or someone who voted for him before can shed some light on that.
Isn't MA a blue State? It would be extremely difficult to switch a majority of Democrat voters in MA to switch the vote to Republicans. It's possible (happened in past years) I guess, but the presidential Electoral vote is too important to switch like that. Can you image what would happen if NY, or CA switch to red? But at the local level it's not a big deal.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 03:56 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by AlaskaMoose View Post
....Can you image what would happen if NY, or CA switch to red?....
you mean you believe CA didn't vote for Reagan? or Nixon? (edit; republicans have won california 9 of the last 15 presidential elections)


actually it's extremely rare for somebody to win the presidency without winning their home state

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Old Nov 4, 2012, 04:04 PM   #8
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I don't think winning a home state necessarily applies to leadership. Just a few to lose their home state include: Lincoln (twice), Woodrow Wilson, and George H.W. Bush, all whom went on to become some of the finest leaders in the US' history. I'm not saying Romney will or won't follow that path but I'm pointing out that carrying a home-state doesn't always equate with leadership.


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Originally Posted by kavika411 View Post
That's a legitimate question. For example, Mondale won his home state (even though Reagan still squeeked by for a second term).
"Squeaked by" doesn't do that election justice. Reagan took a landslide victory over Mondale, who only won his home state and lost the other 49 to Reagan making it one of the most decisive victories in US history.

----------

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you mean you believe CA didn't vote for Reagan? or Nixon?


actually it's extremely rare for somebody to win the presidency without winning their home state
Statistical probability is about 10%
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 04:11 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by MadeTheSwitch View Post
What are your reasons? To me is seems kind of embarrassing that he can't win a state he has won before. But I'm not sure why that is. Maybe some conservatives or someone who voted for him before can shed some light on that.
While your primary question of Romney losing MA is legitimate, what I bolded out is what I want to address. There's a 99.9% chance Obama is going to lose at least one state that he won in the 2004 election. This is a regular occurrence in politics that is affected by many things, including public mood and reelection incentives. This may partially answer your first question by confronting the constant changes in the American political environment.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 04:39 PM   #10
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There's a 99.9% chance Obama is going to lose MORE THAN one state that he won in the 2004 election.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 04:50 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by haxrnick View Post
Why didn't Al Gore?
That's a good question.

It appears that losing the home state is correlated to failed presidential bids. Of the men who lost their home states, only three managed to get elected, Lincoln Wilson, and Nixon.

It's worth noting that George McGovern, Adlai Stevenson, Dewey and Gore all lost their homes states and also failed to win the presidency.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 04:50 PM   #12
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you mean you believe CA didn't vote for Reagan? or Nixon? (edit; republicans have won california 9 of the last 15 presidential elections)


actually it's extremely rare for somebody to win the presidency without winning their home state
Ok. I stand corrected.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 04:54 PM   #13
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There's a 99.9% chance Obama is going to lose MORE THAN one state that he won in the 2004 election.

Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.2%, Bayesian Prediction 99.8%

http://election.princeton.edu
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 05:02 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadeTheSwitch View Post
I have asked this question before but have never got an answer from conservatives, so with a few days left to go, I thought I would ask the question one last time separately.

Why can't Mitt win MA? He won there before. And yet they do not want to elect him for office again. Why? Could it be that pesky low 34% approval rate he had when he left office?

What are your reasons? To me is seems kind of embarrassing that he can't win a state he has won before. But I'm not sure why that is. Maybe some conservatives or someone who voted for him before can shed some light on that.
Why can't he win Massachusetts? Because Massachusetts is one of the most Democratic states in the nation. And when he was elected governor here, he beat Shannon O'Brien who was relatively inexperienced (she was the state treasurer) and whose performance, or lack thereof, in one of the gubernatorial debates pretty much sank her. Obviously, Obama is a much more formidable opponent.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 05:08 PM   #15
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Why can't he win Massachusetts? Because Massachusetts is one of the most Democratic states in the nation. And when he was elected governor here, he beat Shannon O'Brien who was relatively inexperienced (she was the state treasurer) and whose performance, or lack thereof, in one of the gubernatorial debates pretty much sank her. Obviously, Obama is a much more formidable opponent.

If they're so Democratic, why have they had as many Republican governors as Democratic ones since 1980?
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 05:15 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by AlaskaMoose View Post
Isn't MA a blue State? It would be extremely difficult to switch a majority of Democrat voters in MA to switch the vote to Republicans. It's possible (happened in past years) I guess, but the presidential Electoral vote is too important to switch like that. Can you image what would happen if NY, or CA switch to red? But at the local level it's not a big deal.
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Why can't he win Massachusetts? Because Massachusetts is one of the most Democratic states in the nation. And when he was elected governor here, he beat Shannon O'Brien who was relatively inexperienced (she was the state treasurer) and whose performance, or lack thereof, in one of the gubernatorial debates pretty much sank her. Obviously, Obama is a much more formidable opponent.
Yes, but we did elect a Republican recently to take Senator Kennedy's seat. Luckily, it looks like Elizabeth Warren might be able to take that seat back on Tuesday.


You really want to know why Mitt can't win Massachusetts? Go look at his platform when he ran for governor here in 2002 and look at his platform now. Look at all of the flip-flops and 180's in position that he has done just when it was convenient. He's a completely different candidate (or at least wants to make himself appear he is [this week anyways]) than he was when he ran here in 2002.

Like Deval Patrick said in the DNC, Mitt was a lot more interested in having the job as governor (as a stepping stone to his campaign now) than actually being the governor. He said whatever it took to make people believe he was the right choice so he could get in to power and use that stepping stone. It didn't help that the Massachusetts democrats ran out a piss-poor candidate in 2002 to run against him.


edit-- Can we expand the discussion? As someone who's grown up in MA since a little kid, I hate hearing him call this his "home" state. He's not from here, he's from Michigan. So let's expand. Obama is obviously going to win here in MA (mitt's "home" state), and it looks like he'll win Michigan (the real state he is from), Wisconsin (Paul Ryan's home state), and California (Mitt's car elevator's home state) too. Why can't the Romney/Ryan ticket win ANY of their "home" states??

Last edited by zioxide; Nov 4, 2012 at 05:27 PM.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 05:48 PM   #17
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If they're so Democratic, why have they had as many Republican governors as Democratic ones since 1980?
Dukakis was governor for most of the 80s until 1991. There was a recession in 1990-91, the economy faltered and Weld was elected. After that, the economy rebounded and went on a roll, so there wasn't much appetite for change, and the Republicans held office.

Look at the US Congressional delegation. Since 1983 (the beginning of Dukakis' last stint as governor), there have been a total of 3 Republican House members and 1 Republican Senator. From 1997 - 2010 the entire delegation was Democrats.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 05:51 PM   #18
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If they're so Democratic, why have they had as many Republican governors as Democratic ones since 1980?
Alaska is quite red, but we elect Democrat senators, governors, and mayors. NY is blue, but they too elect Republicans at State level.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 06:02 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by MadeTheSwitch View Post
I have asked this question before but have never got an answer from conservatives, so with a few days left to go, I thought I would ask the question one last time separately.

Why can't Mitt win MA? He won there before. And yet they do not want to elect him for office again. Why? Could it be that pesky low 34% approval rate he had when he left office?

What are your reasons? To me is seems kind of embarrassing that he can't win a state he has won before. But I'm not sure why that is. Maybe some conservatives or someone who voted for him before can shed some light on that.
It shouldn't really be a surprise he's not going to win MA. A Republican presidential candidate hasn't won MA in 28 years. In 2008 McCain only got 36% of the vote. MA is a very solid blue state.

However, Romney's polling at 42% in MA. To turn around your question a bit, why is Romney doing so much better than the last Republican presidential candidate did in MA? After all, the numbers show Romney is taking MA voters from Obama. Or as you put it, if Obama's so great why are more MA voters voting for Romney relative to how they voted in 2008?
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 08:15 PM   #20
NickZac
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If they're so Democratic, why have they had as many Republican governors as Democratic ones since 1980?
IIRC, with the exception of RR, MA has voted for democratic presidents exclusively since the 50s.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 08:44 PM   #21
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I don't think winning a home state necessarily applies to leadership. Just a few to lose their home state include: Lincoln (twice), Woodrow Wilson, and George H.W. Bush, all whom went on to become some of the finest leaders in the US' history. I'm not saying Romney will or won't follow that path but I'm pointing out that carrying a home-state doesn't always equate with leadership.
But it isn't just a home state, it's the state he won an election in. It is a state he has governed. I find that puzzling as I equally do over the notion that George H.W. Bush was one of our finest leaders. Based on what? He didn't get reelected, so it would seem America does not agree with that statement.

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Originally Posted by bobfitz14 View Post
While your primary question of Romney losing MA is legitimate, what I bolded out is what I want to address. There's a 99.9% chance Obama is going to lose at least one state that he won in the 2004 election.
And I consider that an embarrassment too. But not quite as much of one as losing the one single state that someone once governed. That's a bit more personal and individual then a national office.

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Originally Posted by zioxide View Post
edit-- Can we expand the discussion? As someone who's grown up in MA since a little kid, I hate hearing him call this his "home" state. He's not from here, he's from Michigan. So let's expand. Obama is obviously going to win here in MA (mitt's "home" state), and it looks like he'll win Michigan (the real state he is from), Wisconsin (Paul Ryan's home state), and California (Mitt's car elevator's home state) too. Why can't the Romney/Ryan ticket win ANY of their "home" states??
Sorry. I only call it his home state because that was where he was Governor and where he has his campaign headquarters. So he seems most closely tied with MA as disappointing as that might be to you! (Yeah, I wouldn't want to claim him either....lol).

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Originally Posted by astrorider View Post
It shouldn't really be a surprise he's not going to win MA. A Republican presidential candidate hasn't won MA in 28 years. In 2008 McCain only got 36% of the vote. MA is a very solid blue state.
But yet the point still stands. They elected this man before. Why don't they want him back in office?

Quote:
However, Romney's polling at 42% in MA. To turn around your question a bit, why is Romney doing so much better than the last Republican presidential candidate did in MA? After all, the numbers show Romney is taking MA voters from Obama. Or as you put it, if Obama's so great why are more MA voters voting for Romney relative to how they voted in 2008?
Probably because it's his home state. That is what SHOULD be happening. But he should be winning even more.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 09:41 PM   #22
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But it isn't just a home state, it's the state he won an election in. It is a state he has governed. I find that puzzling as I equally do over the notion that George H.W. Bush was one of our finest leaders. Based on what? He didn't get reelected, so it would seem America does not agree with that statement.
Perhaps America doesn't, but I do. I think George HW Bush rarely gets the credit he deserves, largely because his own party turned their back on him. A few initiatives are...
-The Americans with Disabilities Act...this was the biggest civil rights legislation in decades, and he fought hard for it, often noting on the segregation and discrimination that persons with disabilities face
-Strengthening of environmental regulations against his own party's wishes
-Working together with Mikhail Gorbachev to end the Cold War in a cooperative effort
-START 1
-Significant improvement to the highway systems in the US
-His effort to reduce the deficit through bipartisan agreement, which was a main part of why he lost the election.
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 09:49 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by MadeTheSwitch View Post
I have asked this question before but have never got an answer from conservatives, so with a few days left to go, I thought I would ask the question one last time separately.

Why can't Mitt win MA? He won there before. And yet they do not want to elect him for office again. Why? Could it be that pesky low 34% approval rate he had when he left office?

What are your reasons? To me is seems kind of embarrassing that he can't win a state he has won before. But I'm not sure why that is. Maybe some conservatives or someone who voted for him before can shed some light on that.
This guy Romney will say anything to become President, liar liar liar
funny how the single biggest achievement he rallied for was healthcare reform in his home state......but he doesn't talk about that ( figure why) but he will talk about saving the Olympics[COLOR="#808080"]
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 10:55 PM   #24
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I don't think winning a home state necessarily applies to leadership. Just a few to lose their home state include: Lincoln (twice), Woodrow Wilson, and George H.W. Bush, all whom went on to become some of the finest leaders in the US' history.
Woodrow Wilson is quite a mixed bag, and was and is quite controversial. Many civil liberties scholars consider the Wilson government the most repressive the U.S. has ever had. I have often found it curious that
Wilson was considered such a liberal when I was in school. Consider:

Progressive:

Antitrust laws
Federal Reserve
Women's suffrage
Income Tax
(Attempt to curb child labor - failed)
(Attempt to mediate WWI -failed)

Repressive:

While President of Princeton, praised the KKK in a book of history that
he wrote
Barred black students from entering Princeton
After promising support for minorities during his campaign,
Wilson soon officially segregated most of the Federal
Government for the first time since 1863, including the
Civil Service+Post Office, military, government lunch rooms
and restrooms in Washington D.C., downgraded or forced out
black managers throughout the Federal Government. Easily the
most racist and segregationist President the U.S. had post-Civil War.
Espionage Act of 1917
Sedition Act of 1918
Immigration Act of 1918
Arrest and deportation of foreign nationals
Arrest and imprisonment of antiwar citizens
Suppression of newspapers with antiwar editorial content
Arrest & imprisonment (10 year sentence) of Robert Goldstein for
producing a film critical of Great Britain
Arrest & imprisonment (10 year sentence) of Eugene Debs for an
antiwar speech
Palmer raids arrested 10,000 people for criticizing the government,
especially expressing antiwar sentiment
Set up the Committee on Public Information for internal propaganda


On Topic:
Romney hardly qualifies for favorite son status in any one particular state, since he has ties to Michigan, Utah, and Massachusetts.

Last edited by jnpy!$4g3cwk; Nov 4, 2012 at 11:21 PM. Reason: Forgot to add the On Topic part I intended to
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Old Nov 4, 2012, 11:18 PM   #25
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There's a 99.9% chance Obama is going to win MORE THAN one state that he won in the 2004 election.
Fixed that for you.

BL.
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