It's time to make your final predictions

[Macky-Mac]

Originally Posted by jmxp69

This.

This is NOT effective budget management.

yes....and we wouldn't be in this mess if it weren't for those crypto fascist stooges of the right wing that saddled us with that absurd 2/3rds fiasco

[jmxp69]

Originally Posted by Macky-Mac

yes....and we wouldn't be in this mess if it weren't for those crypto fascist stooges of the right wing that saddled us with that absurd 2/3rds fiasco

The 2/3 requirement was a 1933 amendment requiring voter approval (50%+1). How is that a right wing conspiracy?

http://blogs.kqed.org/capitalnotes/2...ard-look-back/

Besides, Prop 25 rescinded this requirement in 2010 and Brown still vetoed the Dem budget proposal. No matter how you slice it, budget management is dysfunctional in CA.

[FreeState]

I like Nate Silvers prediction:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

Scenario Analysis
How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections.

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.2%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 8.2%
Obama wins popular vote 80.5%
Romney wins popular vote 19.5%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.1%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 5.7%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.4%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) <0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 <0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.8%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 5.4%

[nozebleed]

Im sorry, i dont see Romney landslide? Republicans also take senate. you guys must all live in california and smoke herb

[noteple]

Clean your plate there are children starving in China

2012

Clean your plate we owe a bunch of money to China

[balamw]

Originally Posted by jmxp69

[Far right column is overall cost of living, third from right is business friendliness] from: http://www.cnbc.com/id/46413848

I found that chart interesting. Especially for the large anti-correlation between "Technology/Innovation", "Education" and "Access to Capital" to "Business Friendliness". (Many of the states at the bottom of your ordering are near the top if ordered by one of those columns.)

I guess some states have different priorities. I'd rather start a business somewhere where I can get access to a well educated, technically savvy workforce and have good access to capital.

B

[Macky-Mac]

Originally Posted by jmxp69

The 2/3 requirement was a 1933 amendment requiring voter approval (50%+1). How is that a right wing conspiracy?

http://blogs.kqed.org/capitalnotes/2...ard-look-back/

Besides, Prop 25 rescinded this requirement in 2010 and Brown still vetoed the Dem budget proposal. No matter how you slice it, budget management is dysfunctional in CA.

according to your own link that amendment didn't require the budget to be passed with a 2/3rd majority.......that was only required under certain circumstances.


a right wing conspiracy?

well anybody who comes here using such language as "If California weren't guaranteed to vote left of Lenin" really isn't in any position to complain when somebody points out that the "crypto fascist stooges of the right wing" have been manipulating the budget process for the benefit of the wealthy at the expense of anything that could be considered fiscally responsibility.

if you go back and read my earlier post you'll see that I'm of the opinion that the california budget process is a mess......I just haven't been duped into believing it's all the fault of just one party as it appears you have

[AlaskaMoose]

Originally Posted by balamw

I found that chart interesting. Especially for the large anti-correlation between "Technology/Innovation", "Education" and "Access to Capital" to "Business Friendliness". (Many of the states at the bottom of your ordering are near the top if ordered by one of those columns.)

I guess some states have different priorities. I'd rather start a business somewhere where I can get access to a well educated, technically savvy workforce and have good access to capital.

B

All depends on the business. For example, I would prefer a skillful workhorse rather than a highly educated one with no skills to do the work. Also, the States that are on top of the list are where all businesses have been the most successful, so you still have to take into consideration all the factors used on the table.

I found the table quite interesting, including the high cost of living in of several States. I already knew that the cost of living in Alaska was quite high, however

[Prof.]

Pew Research Center: Obama 50%, Romney 47%

Here's the latest polls.

[63dot]

If we are tied 49 percent each, Monday morning, according to CNN, I take Obama by razor thin margin on popular vote, but by a comfortable margin in the electoral vote. He has just the right distribution in swing states.

[Thomas Veil]

As good a place as any for this story:

Because of Hurricane Sandy, our town postponed trick-or-treating until last night.

So some older kids came to the door, saw the Obama-Biden sign in the yard, and started chanting, "Romney! Romney!"

At which point I opened the door with a full bowl of candy in my hand and said, "Well then, I guess you don't want me redistributing this wealth, do ya?"

[CorvusCamenarum]

Originally Posted by 63dot

If we are tied 49 percent each, Monday morning, according to CNN, I take Obama by razor thin margin on popular vote, but by a comfortable margin in the electoral vote. He has just the right distribution in swing states.

CNN's poll is also hugely skewed to absurdity and back. You can find their methodology here;I direct you to page 29:

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

If they have to go all the way to D+11 to make the race look like a dead heat...

[mrkramer]

Originally Posted by CorvusCamenarum

CNN's poll is also hugely skewed to absurdity and back. You can find their methodology here;I direct you to page 29:



If they have to go all the way to D+11 to make the race look like a dead heat...

And what's the distribution of democrats in the country? If I remember correctly from the last time I saw numbers there are more registered democrats than republicans, so that isn't too far off.

[63dot]

NBC reported this morning that Obama is either tied or in the lead of all but two swing states (North Carolina, Florida) so as for electoral college, it's pretty much sewed up. I can't imagine anything in the half day left that will make voters change their minds.

As for popular vote, it seems Obama may have inched up incrementally but I still think popular vote will be razor thin. Senate hasn't been threatened by GOP in a many weeks so it goes to the democrats. Barring some even more unlikely political disaster in next few hours, House will solidly go to republicans so they can count on blocking the president in his second term.

The result? Slow recovery as has been the case and Obama leaving a pretty bad two term legacy for the economy with the GOP gearing up for 2014 midterms. Obama may get us out of Afghanistan by then and he could say he was very successful on foreign policy (also ending Iraq War) but if we are still floating around 8% percent unemployment in two years, things will look bad for him and it's all the country will be focusing on. Bush couldn't win in '92 with most of communism dissolved in Europe under his watch and a first Iraq War victory because of the economy and it's the momentum the GOP will use citing bad economy to possibly get the majority in the Senate. If this happens Obama will get less done in second term and leave office with a very poor approval rating. The democrats have to do more than just celebrate when they win tomorrow.

If anything good comes of the gridlock and painfully slow recovery, I hope it gives room for independents to voice their opinions and get some seats.

[mcrain]

I predict a lopsided Romney electoral win, followed by steadfast refusal by the GOP controlled House to investigate the massive numbers of claims regarding election tampering.

[briand05]

Obama will win the electoral college comfortably, I think it'll be 303-235. The popular vote is gonna be tighter but Obama will probably still win it, 50%-48%.

[Peace]

I'm being the pessimist. I believe the republican money machine is going to fix voting machines,try to limit voting,intimidate voters so they leave before voting or not show up out of fear of the lies the republicans have viciously spewed. As a result Romney will win by a small margin in both the electoral college and the popular vote .

[kavika411]

Originally Posted by Peace

I'm being the pessimist. I believe the republican money machine is going to fix voting machines,try to limit voting,intimidate voters so they leave before voting or not show up out of fear of the lies the republicans have viciously spewed. As a result Romney will win by a small margin in both the electoral college and the popular vote .

I thought Obama raised more money, though. Is there no "Democratic money machine?"

[Peace]

Originally Posted by kavika411

I thought Obama raised more money, though. Is there no "Democratic money machine?"

None like your money machine I know of.

[kavika411]

Originally Posted by Peace

None like your money machine I know of.

Oh.

[places his money machine in his lap and pets it while it purrs]

[rdowns]

Originally Posted by kavika411

I thought Obama raised more money, though. Is there no "Democratic money machine?"

Romney raised more money although Obama outraised him in 2 or 3 months. Funny thing is, socialist-out-of-control-spending Obama was able to get more ads on TV with less money than job-creator-businessman-extraordinaire Romney. Seems Romney campaign workers are paid crazy salaries.

[portishead]

Pretty sure Obama is going to win by a decent amount. The polls all have it pretty close, but I don't think it will be that close. Plus popular vote doesn't matter, and Obama has the electoral college pretty much locked up.

[zioxide]

from Princeton Election Consortium:

As of November 5, 4:59PM EST:
Obama: 310
Romney: 228
Meta-margin: Obama +2.46%

Probability of Obama re-election:
Random Drift 98.4%, Bayesian Prediction 99.9%

[Thomas Veil]

Originally Posted by Peace

I'm being the pessimist. I believe the republican money machine is going to fix voting machines,try to limit voting,intimidate voters so they leave before voting or not show up out of fear of the lies the republicans have viciously spewed. As a result Romney will win by a small margin in both the electoral college and the popular vote .

You've seen, probably, the stories where Texas is forbidding international observers to come within several hundred feet of polling places. How those observers are supposed to observe anything is anybody's guess. Personally, I'd like to see them analyze some random voting machines the very second the election closes to make sure they aren't tampered with.

And of course election tampering is why the GOP is so steadfast against early voting. Supposedly they're worried about corpses showing up to cast ballots, when the real cheating is in the form of letters going out to people sending them to the wrong polling places, telling them to vote on Nov. 7th, or threatening them with arrest if they show up.

BTW, the poll results are interesting: a slim majority thinks Obama will win by a decent margin.

[Prof.]

Now make this a reality!