I'm sure Apple will post record profit margins for the Holiday quarter. The release of the new iPhone, desktop Macs and refreshed iPad and new mini has almost ensured that. I doubt we'll get back to 700 in the next few months, but I don't think Apple has become a terrible investment.
We'll see?
huh?? record profit margin???? Did you hear the conference call and read the company guidance for 4Q12? The gross margin is projected to be 36% 40% in 3Q12 and 43ish% in 2Q12). 4Q12 is the first Q for a long time that YOY earning is projected to go down because of the low gross margin and lower volume (Iphone 5 is projected to sell 39M by analysts as compare to 4S+4+3GS sold 37M in 4Q11) You can easily build a case for Apple stock price to be in the $400 or $800 at this point depending on your view on the gross margin and unit volume of Ipad 4, Ipad mini, Iphone 5, Iphone 6 and Ipad 5. Mac, Ipod, Itune sales don't count since they are too small to affect the overall earning. And the one major pending issue for the stock is what will Apple do to low end smartphone. If they can produce a low end smartphone with 30%+ gross margin (Iphone 4s is in the 50-60% gross margin. and Iphone 5 is probably in the low 40% and below now given all the problem in scaff gate warranty cost and shipping cost for flying Iphone 5 from China to US instead of shipping through sea), the stock will be golden for another couple year.
There is no next big thing in Apple horizon. So it is either doing better in Iphone and Ipad earning or the stock will suffer...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/952...f4q12-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=4
As we indicated previously, revenue in that 14th week last year was approximately one 14th of the quarters total revenue. We expect revenues to be about $52 billion compared to $46.3 billion in the December quarter last year. We expect gross margin to be about 36% reflecting approximately $90 million related to stock-based compensation expense.
We expect OpEx to be about $4.05 billion including about $485 million related to stock-based compensation expense. We expect OI&E to be about $380 million, and we expect the tax rate to be about 26%. We are targeting EPS of about $11.75.
We head into this holiday quarter with the strongest iPhone line-up that we have ever had with the iPhone 4 starting at three in the subsidized markets. We also added the iPad Mini to our iPad line-up. The iPad Mini has the full iPad experience, and we priced it aggressively at $329, delivering incredible value to our customers. Its gross margin is significantly below the corporate average.
So in summary, we expect our gross margin to decline by about 400 basis points sequentially. We expect the benefit from positive leverage on a sequentially higher revenue and a greater mix of iPhone, but we expect these benefits will be more than offset by a number of factors.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/952...arnings-call-transcript?page=5&p=qanda&l=last
First, margins on new products are lower than their predecessors including the iPhone 5 and we have been aggressive with the iPad Mini. Second, weve lowered the price of the iPhone 4S and the iPhone 4. Third, we will experience transitionary cost associated with multiple new product ramp. Fourth, the high anticipated volume of iPhone and other new products will generate significantly greater deferred revenue sequentially.
As you are aware, we defer a portion of our revenue with every device we sell, and amortize it back into revenue over the l