'Nightline' Looks at Apple's Woes as Stock Declines 20% from All-Time High

[xofruitcake]

Originally Posted by mccldwll

Measuring earnings growth YOY by quarter is a ridiculous way to look at growth. Quarters are artificial points in time that do 't accurately reflect what's happening. If anyone thinks earnings YOY are dropping, I have a bridge to sell you. Looking at annual growth, aapl is a screaming buy. However, I would encourage all naysayers to short it right here: that much more accelerant when they have to cover. And as far as pundits moving the stock, you're right. However, they are an integral part of orchestrated attacks by hedge funds and the HFTs that are involved in upwards of 70% of the ADV. The pundits, bloggers, and "analysts" are the town criers and Chicken Littles of today's financial world.

Heh heh, management told us about it.. You can sell your bridge to Tim Cook. The annual growth you are citing is before 4Q12. In 4Q12, Apple management tell us otherwise. What is your take on future earning?

I think you forget that Apple is a mega cap stock that daily trading is in the 10B range. Pundit, individual investors, blogger, analysts don't have enough weight to move the stock price one way or the other. Only fund managers that has billions dollars of chip to play that can move the stock. It is down about 20% form the high because the future is uncertain. And Apple management is throwing some real data into the fire (e.g. Ipad mini has significantly low gross margin compare to average Apple product. New products has lower margin as compare to the product they replace. The rollout quarter incurred a lot of expense that drive the gross margin down. And there is no hint of what will happen to Iphone 5 volume this Q or next Q). Why shouldn't one be worry if they own the stock now???? Is it that hard to understand or accept that company business position change everyday because consumer taste change and competition change? Faith base investment don't work very well or very long...8-))

[Muzzakus]

Originally Posted by Piggie

If nothing else, I'd suggest one thing they need to sort out in the old UI for iOS products.

Even the latest iPad4 and Mini and basically using the exact same old dead icon grid that the very 1st iPhone launched with.

The Microsoft Surface with it's life titles giving you information without having to run programs is just showing how out of date Apple's UI is even more.

Have to agree with you here chap. Got a nexus 7" as a kick about portable for the wife. Have had every gen of iPad bar 4, currently sporting 3.

The flexibility of android compared to iOS is staggering. Lucky for apple android is nowhere near as smooth as iOS or apple would be in serious ****.

[Tinmania]

Originally Posted by JayJayAbels

When they announce the new iTV in June that's all investors will want to know.

Also the new redesigned Mac Pros.

I wish there was a way to ignore posts based on keywords.

Like "mac pro" for instance.





Mike

[mccldwll]

Originally Posted by xofruitcake

Heh heh, management told us about it.. You can sell your bridge to Tim Cook. The annual growth you are citing is before 4Q12. In 4Q12, Apple management tell us otherwise. What is your take on future earning?

I think you forget that Apple is a mega cap stock that daily trading is in the 10B range. Pundit, individual investors, blogger, analysts don't have enough weight to move the stock price one way or the other. Only fund managers that has billions dollars of chip to play that can move the stock. It is down about 20% form the high because the future is uncertain. And Apple management is throwing some real data into the fire (e.g. Ipad mini has significantly low gross margin compare to average Apple product. New products has lower margin as compare to the product they replace. The rollout quarter incurred a lot of expense that drive the gross margin down. And there is no hint of what will happen to Iphone 5 volume this Q or next Q). Why shouldn't one be worry if they own the stock now???? Is it that hard to understand or accept that company business position change everyday because consumer taste change and competition change? Faith base investment don't work very well or very long...8-))

Annual YOY earnings most certainly are growing. "Annual" should have been crystal clear since YOY by quarter was stated to be an artificial metric. If you actually knew anything about aapl, you'd know 2012 tax year ended 9/29 and you wouldn't be talking about this quarter as Q4. If you followed aapl, you'd also know that margins on mini have been estimated to be higher than originally thought. And if you really knew anything about aapl, you'd realized that "uncertainty" is FUD's middle name and has been created to scare the ignorant and unknowing, as you too appear to be trying to do as well.

[iphoneclassic]

Originally Posted by jmgregory1

That too is a load of crap. Steve Jobs wasn't responsible for product design and I'm not sure even conceptualization. He's responsible for putting together a team that did that and could act in ways that few other companies allowed (or still allow) designers/engineers to act.

Are you sure about Forstall. He completely screwed up iOS. It appears Apple cremeted their quality test plans and procedures along with Jobs.

There are many 4s users turned off all smart features to deal with batter drain issue. No fix since September 19. Apple didn't even acknowledge the issue so far.

[CausticPuppy]

Looks more like a correction to the long-term trend:

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=...ULiLBJXWlgPXbg

And the past couple months look similar to what happened last April, where the stock peaked and then went downhill for a couple months.

[Millionaire2K]

Originally Posted by mccldwll

You bought all for $9.85 or average? At once or laddered?

9.85 average, All bought in 2003.

[jmgregory1]

Originally Posted by iphoneclassic

Are you sure about Forstall. He completely screwed up iOS. It appears Apple cremeted their quality test plans and procedures along with Jobs.

There are many 4s users turned off all smart features to deal with batter drain issue. No fix since September 19. Apple didn't even acknowledge the issue so far.

What you are talking about is specific hardware or software issues. It's not effecting hundreds of millions of people. This discussion and my comments revolve around financial performance and the fundamentals that Apple has in place that will drive continued growth. Are they perfect? Of course not, no company is, but they have a heck of lot more figured out than just about any other company.

[jmgregory1]

Originally Posted by Muzzakus

Have to agree with you here chap. Got a nexus 7" as a kick about portable for the wife. Have had every gen of iPad bar 4, currently sporting 3.

The flexibility of android compared to iOS is staggering. Lucky for apple android is nowhere near as smooth as iOS or apple would be in serious ****.

The thing about widgets and live tiles with Android and Windows 8 is that on a mobile device, where checking email involves exactly one touch (once past lock screen), it just seems silly to have a widget or live tile showing new emails, for example. That's what Apple did in creating iOS. They made it so easy to go from one app to another that you don't need 5 or 6 different apps showing up on your "desktop" like on a laptop. And unless you have more than 20 or 24 apps that you have to check each and every time you fire up your device whereby you need to then go the "trouble" of swiping (who has the 0.04 seconds to swipe?) to the next screen. Ohhh the pain of to do this extra work.

I'm not saying Apple shouldn't work towards adding functionality with iOS, but I don't want to go to the "good ole days" of having a screen saver showing me emails, weather, FB status, etc, because the moving images and lights are so pretty...

I can't wait for MS to release their new Windows smartphone that runs full Windows applications and where you can have 3 or 4 different apps running on the 4" screen at the same time...because you know that will be so efficient looking at .5pt text in an app.

[Macist]

I thought the iEra would have stalled years ago. The world's been in the grip of the biggest financial meltdown in decades and yet people have been buying flashy iPhone and iPads like there's no tomorrow. It didn't seem to matter what big names companies were going bust or laying off thousands, it didn't seem to matter if VAT was being hiked or pay and benefits frozen for millions, some powerful force kept Apple growing at an amazing rate.

So I think the share price falling is no real sign of weakness but how capitalism is crazy enough to think growth is unlimited and a return to 'normal' is somehow a disaster.

Looking forward I think Apple will continue to be successful and make the world best computers and 'post-PC' products. Their custom chip work, seen in recent iPhones and iPads, is just getting started. It's really clever stuff in a market where the competition is just screwing together commodity parts and calling it job done.

With Forstall gone I think it's time for a software reboot. Apple need to produce 'great releases' like Snow Leopard and it has to decide, given it's spat with Google, if it's going to be a massive Cloud/search/data player or not.

[Nova Sensei]

If i've learned anything in the last few years it's that stock price and stock value are totally different things.

[hindmost]

Originally Posted by iGrip

This is the greatest buying opportunity I have ever seen.

Everybody should be taking out home equity lines of credit and using the proceeds to buy Apple stock. See if you can refinance your car loan. Take everything out of your 401(k) and IRA accounts. Buy on margin. Buy options. Take next month's rent money. Do whatever you have to, but BUY!

Was your great-great-great Grandpa the guy who told everybody to buy into Dutch 'tulips' as the greatest 'always will go up' investment of the day?

[iphoneclassic]

Originally Posted by jmgregory1

What you are talking about is specific hardware or software issues. It's not effecting hundreds of millions of people. This discussion and my comments revolve around financial performance and the fundamentals that Apple has in place that will drive continued growth. Are they perfect? Of course not, no company is, but they have a heck of lot more figured out than just about any other company.

I am a biggest fan of Apple products. Ever since Apple started selling iOS products pre-ordered each one of those on day one. It didn't bother me a bit when they cut original iPhone by $100. First time ever I didn't purchase iPad(Gen 4) and iPad Mini. Not because Gen 4 iPad was released too eary. I want the latest gadget but stayed back because of iOS 6. I still have iOS 5.1.1 on my iPad (Gen 3) and planning to keep that way.

iPhone 4s battery drain issue is specific. But one would think Forstall tested iOS 6 on 4s. They didn't fix even with 6.0.1.

[ixodes]

Originally Posted by noisycats

Leaving the obvious math fallacies aside, it is called "harvesting" and depending on personal and particular circumstances, is the recommended investment activity between now and the end of the year.

Look across the entire stock markets, millions are 'harvesting' their cap gains and will likely continue to do so until the New Year. You lock in your gains at 15% (versus the suspected upcoming 25%), wait 30 days, then rebuy -- hopefully at lower pricepoint and certainly with a favorably adjusted cost basis.

You are 100% correct. There are ten or twelve "top performing" stocks that are currently selling in large numbers (being harvested) presently. Here's just two of which I have also sold, along with all of my APPL stock.

- Agilent Technologies (A)
- Kraft Foods (KFT)

In my case I was prepared, and timed my transaction to occur at the opening of the market the morning following the election. This is a perfectly normal practice for this time of year. Even more so during a presidential election cycle.

[mccldwll]

100% correct? "Rebuy in 30 days"? You're an investor but waited until after the election, the results of which had been known by WS for weeks, to "harvest". A bit late. The smart money was doing that when aapl was in 675-705 range, and cnbc was saying "buy, buy, buy".

[Bahroo]

honestly there is really nothing to sweat about, the iPhone hasnt been released in China yet which accounts for a huge portion of Apple's revenue and it still hasn't been released in some countries. also the production line cant keep up at this moment but i expect that to clear up really soon so then that they can pump out many iphone 5's for the upcoming holiday's

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Originally Posted by jmgregory1

The thing about widgets and live tiles with Android and Windows 8 is that on a mobile device, where checking email involves exactly one touch (once past lock screen), it just seems silly to have a widget or live tile showing new emails, for example. That's what Apple did in creating iOS. They made it so easy to go from one app to another that you don't need 5 or 6 different apps showing up on your "desktop" like on a laptop. And unless you have more than 20 or 24 apps that you have to check each and every time you fire up your device whereby you need to then go the "trouble" of swiping (who has the 0.04 seconds to swipe?) to the next screen. Ohhh the pain of to do this extra work.

I'm not saying Apple shouldn't work towards adding functionality with iOS, but I don't want to go to the "good ole days" of having a screen saver showing me emails, weather, FB status, etc, because the moving images and lights are so pretty...

I can't wait for MS to release their new Windows smartphone that runs full Windows applications and where you can have 3 or 4 different apps running on the 4" screen at the same time...because you know that will be so efficient looking at .5pt text in an app.

lol this exactly ^

[ixodes]

For those who are genuinely concerned, here's a another take on the stock plunge.

"Current drop echoes 1987 crash prelude"

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cur...dist=afterbell

[aliensporebomb]

Originally Posted by JayJayAbels

Garbage. As an Android owner... a Motorola Razr Maxx... I was NEVER so frustrated with a phone in my entire life.

ANYONE that says Android has a superior OS is absolutely lying to themselves to make them feel better.

I switched to an iPhone 5 and there is NO comparison. NONE.

Don't buy into the Android hope or you'll get burned by the experience.

That said... everyone is entitled to get burned equally.
Enjoy!

My friend who bought his Galaxy SIII the same day I bought my iPhone5 - two weeks into ownership and he already thinks he made a bad decision: spontaneous reboots, hanging, shutting down all by itself, poor battery life, abysmal reception. This is the best android phone out there? He said "I'd hate to see the worst."

[Rogifan]

So Doug Kass trashed Apple and helped knock off $130 billion in valuation and now he's buying? How can anyone still claim this stock isn't being manipulated?

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/...and-doug-kass/

[xofruitcake]

Originally Posted by mccldwll

. And if you really knew anything about aapl, you'd realized that "uncertainty" is FUD's middle name and has been created to scare the ignorant and unknowing, as you too appear to be trying to do as well.

Heh heh, And here I am, made my year trading Apple option. I bet you didn't even read an Apple earning report or conference call since you never seems to be able to argue your position base on any data provide by Apple or otherwise. good luck on your position if you think Apple has a god given right of earning growing yoy. Both Iphone and Ipad are maturing product. Iphone is already in the 6 iteration and Ipad is already on the 3rd iteration. I guess we will have to agree to disagree. 8-)

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Originally Posted by Bahroo

honestly there is really nothing to sweat about, the iPhone hasnt been released in China yet which accounts for a huge portion of Apple's revenue and it still hasn't been released in some countries. also the production line cant keep up at this moment but i expect that to clear up really soon so then that they can pump out many iphone 5's for the upcoming holiday's

----------



lol this exactly ^

But how big is China market? Their total 3G market as of Sept is 202M (combination of China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom). There are roughly equal in size with China Mobile the largest one. So if you think Iphone 5 can get 15% of the China Telecom and China Unicom 3G users (It does not look like China mobile will have Iphone 5 at all), we are looking at roughly 140Mx0.15= 21M units. And if they can get 1/2 of the sales in the launch quarter, it will add about 10.5M units sales. That is in the back drop of projected 39M unit sales in 4Q12 now (Apple sell 37M Iphone in 4S launch in 4Q11).. If Iphone 5 can get 20%, it will add about 14M units in launch quarter... If you are really interested in China salse, try to follow some China website to gauge their interest (and fear.. Scuff-gate is a pretty bid deal in China..).

http://bbs.weiphone.com/thread-htm-fid-466.html

[mackinmike]

Originally Posted by mccldwll

That's funny. Of course you did. Almost as funny as believing anyone here would believe you. You've been on here since day one claiming how much better your Slll is than your iPhone 5, iPhone is outdated, iPhone is small, blah, blah, blah. Something new and different here, a Samsuck worker troll.

in my eyes, yes, i think my s3 is better. have a problem with an opinion? everyone has a preference dude. you do realize there are other people that feel the same right?

i analyze trends in the industry and make money from it. for instance... erosion in market share, production problems, lack of new features and innovation (like following competitors into a smaller form factor), and moods shifts from even diehard apple fans. these are the things people should look. but heck, if you're just person that loves apple products good for you. i'm here to make money while enjoying my gadgets.

[axual]

It doesn't matter ... where will the stock be in 2020.

[mccldwll]

[QUOTE=xofruitcake;16266003]Heh heh, And here I am, made my year trading Apple option. I bet you didn't even read an Apple earning report or conference call since you never seems to be able to argue your position base on any data provide by Apple or otherwise. good luck on your position if you think Apple has a god given right of earning growing yoy. Both Iphone and Ipad are maturing product. Iphone is already in the 6 iteration and Ipad is already on the 3rd iteration. I guess we will have to agree to disagree. 8-)[COLOR="#808080"]

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Hee, hee..."made my year"? Sounds like you're in commissioned sales or, since it's leveraged options, track betting. In your parlance, I guess I could say I've made my decade, and far more. Don't dislocate a shoulder patting yourself on the back for doing minimal financial due diligence. It's laughable from someone who knows so little about aapl that not aware of its fiscal year, or how to spell "iPhone" or "iPad". I'm an investor and a 20% FUD created pullback doesn't concern me. Anyone who can't deal with that shouldn't be in the stock market. And anyone who relies on any of the crap written on rumor sites shouldn't be either.

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Originally Posted by mackinmike

in my eyes, yes, i think my s3 is better. have a problem with an opinion? everyone has a preference dude. you do realize there are other people that feel the same right?

i analyze trends in the industry and make money from it. for instance... erosion in market share, production problems, lack of new features and innovation (like following competitors into a smaller form factor), and moods shifts from even diehard apple fans. these are the things people should look. but heck, if you're just person that loves apple products good for you. i'm here to make money while enjoying my gadgets.

Of course you're entitled to prefer your S3 to your iPhone5. However, I do question why anyone would have both, and come to macrumors and spend every posting moment here promoting one of those and knocking the other, unless they're promoting Samsuck. It's especially curious since you first came here in May of this year, about when the S3 was introduced. Just a coincidence? Don't PR hacks like Enderle claim to "analyze trends in the industry"? Like I opined and you said, you're "here to make money while enjoying my gadgets."

[Rocketman]

Originally Posted by xofruitcake

heh heh, let's me ask these questions. Do you have a view of what the gross margin will be like for Iphone 5, Ipad 4, Ipad mini, Iphone 6 and Ipad 5 going into 2013 and what will the volume be in 2013

The gross profit on the iPad Mini is something like 150%, so gross margin over 50%, amortized over the annual run. So not only are margins increasing, the annuity of the phone upgrade cycle is proving to be steady and large. Even if growth drops below 100% due to the large numbers after China is first ever saturated by Apple, the growth rate is likely to drift toward 20% over 5 or so years. That means we have 2-3 more good years for AAPL.

Rocketman

[khiaao]

I'm holding my stock for the long term, so not worried about current news