Go Back   MacRumors Forums > Mac Community > Community Discussion > Politics, Religion, Social Issues

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old Nov 12, 2012, 08:07 PM   #1
Ugg
macrumors 68000
 
Ugg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Penryn
Send a message via AIM to Ugg
Serious Labor Shortage Ahead

The WSJ has a great article about the coming pilot shortage that US airlines are facing.

PG&E, a California electricity and gas utility is also facing mass retirement of linemen and has started a program to recruit ex-military.

It has been long known that NASA is facing the same problem with the Federal Government having even older employees.

In the case of pilots, 65 is the mandatory age of retirement so there's no hoping for pilots staying on after most retire.


So, does anyone else think that with the huge wave of retiring baby boomers coming up that the US labor market is going to get a much needed boost? Sure, some will continue working but many may choose a less stressful part time job. I've been convinced for sometime that the reason the US has lost its mojo is that many industries are weighted towards those nearing retirement. The risktakers in this world have traditionally been people in their 20s and 30s.

I think it's very likely that the US will get a major boost in the next decade as the younger generation finally gets a chance to take the reins.

Thoughts?
__________________
Check out <Peter's family tree!
Ugg is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 12, 2012, 09:10 PM   #2
mrkramer
macrumors 601
 
mrkramer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Somewhere
I think things like this will help, but at the same time are there enough qualified Americans for these jobs, and if not are we willing to pay for education to train them. Education hasn't exactly been a big priority of our government for a while...
__________________
"Jesus was the first socialist, the first to seek a better life for mankind." -Mikhail Gorbachev
mrkramer is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 12, 2012, 11:42 PM   #3
Peace
macrumors P6
 
Peace's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Space--The ONLY Frontier
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkramer View Post
I think things like this will help, but at the same time are there enough qualified Americans for these jobs, and if not are we willing to pay for education to train them. Education hasn't exactly been a big priority of our government for a while...
Locally. Education seems to have picked up more funding thanks to school bonds being passed by various districts. I noticed this while looking at election returns.

Lets hope education gets the attention it deserves.
Peace is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 12:01 AM   #4
flopticalcube
macrumors G4
 
flopticalcube's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: In the velcro closure of America's Hat
Wage inflation here we come.
__________________
Read the Rules / Search the Forums / Use a Descriptive Title
Mac Won't Boot?
flopticalcube is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 01:43 AM   #5
Ugg
Thread Starter
macrumors 68000
 
Ugg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Penryn
Send a message via AIM to Ugg
Quote:
Originally Posted by flopticalcube View Post
Wage inflation here we come.
It wouldn't hurt if the nation's janitors and gardeners got a wage increase, but they're probably not going to benefit as much as all the professionals will.

The continual pressure to devalue education over the last 20 years is going to hurt us all. The Republicans are going to be screaming bloody murder because wages are increasing too much but then they're the ones who have defunded education...
__________________
Check out <Peter's family tree!
Ugg is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 05:11 AM   #6
VulchR
macrumors 68000
 
VulchR's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Scotland
I am a scientist, but I have to say that in the West we have not trained enough engineers. Science is always going to be important, but unless we have the engineers to actually build, design and operate things we're going to be in a heap of hurt. For instance, I use analog electronics to amplify biological signals. The only people competent in analog electronics in the UK seem to have grey hair. Thus, I worry that once the baby boomer technocrats and engineers retire, they will be replaced with people who do not have the requisite technical skills and knowledge.
__________________
My first was a Mac+. Now I own an iPhone with 3.5x the pixels, a colour display, WiFi, 512x the RAM, >1500x the data storage, and 100x the speed. And it fits in the palm of my hand.
VulchR is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 10:50 AM   #7
erickkoch
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Kalifornia
Quote:
Originally Posted by VulchR View Post
The only people competent in analog electronics in the UK seem to have grey hair. Thus, I worry that once the baby boomer technocrats and engineers retire, they will be replaced with people who do not have the requisite technical skills and knowledge.
For whatever reason, I thought the lack of science and engineering interest was mostly an American phenomenon. Guess I was wrong. I'm a clinical scientist, most of my coworkers are from abroad (Asia).
__________________
Law of Logical Argument: Anything is possible if you don’t know what you are talking about.
erickkoch is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 11:06 AM   #8
danpass
macrumors 68020
 
danpass's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Miami, FL
and the airlines have only themselves to blame.

new pilot wages have been in the toilet (literally) for a little over a decade so there has been no incentive for people to pursue that career path.

military pilots have been doing what they can to STAY IN .... because wages are not where they used to be in commercial.

and because of the mythical concept of 'seniority' (instead of qualifications) those military pilots would start at the bottom ........ yet again another incentive to NOT go commercial.


Now some will say the market paid accordingly. Yes. But instead of building a long term plan that would avoid this shortage, that would avoid any potential 'necessity' of putting a 350hr pilot in command of 200 souls, and paying for qualified pilots all these years and building them accordingly (thereby creating their own steady 'supply') and avoiding potential litigation ...... litigation for what? doesn't matter, until tort reform occurs any litigation is fair game ............ they now have this pilot 'shortage'.

And for anyone to see potential in a pilot career the airlines will have to up their base wages considerably.


In the end the airlines have not only NOT saved money it will end up costing them MORE.
danpass is offline   3 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 11:12 AM   #9
AhmedFaisal
Guest
 
<snip>

Last edited by AhmedFaisal; Nov 11, 2013 at 08:45 AM.
  0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 11:28 AM   #10
jnpy!$4g3cwk
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by VulchR View Post
I am a scientist, but I have to say that in the West we have not trained enough engineers. Science is always going to be important, but unless we have the engineers to actually build, design and operate things we're going to be in a heap of hurt. For instance, I use analog electronics to amplify biological signals. The only people competent in analog electronics in the UK seem to have grey hair. Thus, I worry that once the baby boomer technocrats and engineers retire, they will be replaced with people who do not have the requisite technical skills and knowledge.
Engineering schools tend to be faddish, too, and they can't exactly make people study analog when everybody thinks digital is where the action is. And when digital folks make more than analog folks, it is a tough sell. In the future, power engineering, RF, sensors, and so on will all be hiring, but, right now, analog is a black art engaged in by white-haired wizards.
jnpy!$4g3cwk is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 01:37 PM   #11
barkomatic
macrumors 68040
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Manhattan
There is/will be a labor shortage in some fields only because the cost and years of education necessary don't jive with what you get paid when you enter the field. If the airlines really want to get more pilots, they know what to do -- and so does every other industry suffering a so-called "labor shortage".
barkomatic is offline   1 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 02:01 PM   #12
edk99
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: FL
I'm not understanding why the FAA increased the prior experience flying to 1,500 hours. Six times more then what it is. I really haven't heard about any issues with poorly trained pilots or airplanes crashing all over the place.

Just wondering what the issue is that this requirement needed to be increased 6 fold. Just seems way overboard.

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by barkomatic View Post
There is/will be a labor shortage in some fields only because the cost and years of education necessary don't jive with what you get paid when you enter the field. If the airlines really want to get more pilots, they know what to do -- and so does every other industry suffering a so-called "labor shortage".
Oh yeah RAISE prices. I just paid $400 for a ticket from Florida to Chicago in December. If tickets go any higher I'll drive and so will many others.
edk99 is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 02:09 PM   #13
splitpea
macrumors 6502a
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Among the starlings
The problem is certainly not a shortage of warm bodies. It's a shortage of education and incentives -- salaries currently incentivize intelligent, quantitatively- or technically-minded students to go into fields such as finance rather than science or engineering.
__________________
What's the point of a sig showing the system I owned in 2006?
splitpea is offline   2 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 02:17 PM   #14
tshrimp
macrumors 6502
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ugg View Post
The WSJ has a great article about the coming pilot shortage that US airlines are facing.

PG&E, a California electricity and gas utility is also facing mass retirement of linemen and has started a program to recruit ex-military.

It has been long known that NASA is facing the same problem with the Federal Government having even older employees.

In the case of pilots, 65 is the mandatory age of retirement so there's no hoping for pilots staying on after most retire.


So, does anyone else think that with the huge wave of retiring baby boomers coming up that the US labor market is going to get a much needed boost? Sure, some will continue working but many may choose a less stressful part time job. I've been convinced for sometime that the reason the US has lost its mojo is that many industries are weighted towards those nearing retirement. The risktakers in this world have traditionally been people in their 20s and 30s.

I think it's very likely that the US will get a major boost in the next decade as the younger generation finally gets a chance to take the reins.

Thoughts?
Some good thoughts, but with the increased cost to companies from our Government there has been reports of decreasing labor in the near future. See Applebee's, etc.

But with what you state above maybe this will even out.
tshrimp is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 02:33 PM   #15
hulugu
macrumors 68000
 
hulugu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: the faraway towns
Quote:
Originally Posted by tshrimp View Post
Some good thoughts, but with the increased cost to companies from our Government there has been reports of decreasing labor in the near future. See Applebee's, etc.
You know, I don't believe the CEOs of various companies that government regulations are actually hurting their businesses. If anything, I think that many CEOs are using this as a crutch to hide problems including declining sales, new competition, etc.

Certainly, there are new costs, but considering that these costs are often across an industry—new fuel-efficiency regulations affect all automobile manufacturers for example—I'm increasingly distrustful that these are all that painful for a company to endure and some may even end up saving them money.

Quote:
...But with what you state above maybe this will even out.
There's been a messy reality in labor. Many companies have decreased the amount of people needed due to automation and efficiencies and American workers have increased their productivity enormously—although there's been a recent plateau.
__________________
I look like a soldier; I feel like a thief
hulugu is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 03:42 PM   #16
quagmire
macrumors 603
 
quagmire's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by edk99 View Post
I'm not understanding why the FAA increased the prior experience flying to 1,500 hours. Six times more then what it is. I really haven't heard about any issues with poorly trained pilots or airplanes crashing all over the place.

Just wondering what the issue is that this requirement needed to be increased 6 fold. Just seems way overboard.
It was the reaction to the Colgan Buffalo crash. The victims families saw the minimum hours to be hired as a first officer to the airlines was to have a commercial pilots license and 250 total hours. Several factors though were ignored. Both the captain and FO had over 1,500 hours. Most regional airlines don't hire at 250 hours, but more like 500-700 hours. The crew was fatigued( along with the FO being sick, but didn't want to call in sick due to her needing the money since FO's are paid dirt) and it was the damn captain that crashed the plane. He confused the stick shaker with indications of a tail stall and initiated a tail stall recovery. When in fact the plane was experiencing a regular stall at the wings. So him doing the tail stall recovery made the stall even worse.

Overall, I hate the new ATP rule. There is a proposed restricted ATP that would lower the total hours down to 1,000 hours which isn't so bad, but it's the smaller details that is bugging me. First, it requires 325 hours of cross country time. That is ridiculously high. Also, it requires 8 hours in a full motion simulator. That is expensive( looking at around $4,000) and it comes out of my pockets, not the airlines. But, the law didn't do enough when it comes to fatigue and commuting( our crap pay directly effects pilots commuting to their bases. If we are based out of NYC, think our $16,000/yr salary can support us living in NYC?)

In the grand scheme of things, the massive retirement and the new ATP rule will help me out getting hired since there is a shortage. Also hoping with the increased demand for pilots, it raises our salaries to get people to want to fly for the airlines.
__________________
Crimes against US History:
CV-6 USS Enterprise
Yankee Stadium
Penn Station-New York
quagmire is online now   1 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 06:57 PM   #17
Zombie Acorn
macrumors 65816
 
Zombie Acorn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Baby boomers leaving the market doesn't mean more jobs. It likely means less jobs as corporations get rid of redundant positions and then we have millions of retired people trying to lounge it out in the economic turmoil and national debt that their generation caused.

Its my hope that my generation grows some balls and pays for the spending they demand from the government and not leave the next generation with debt up to their eyeballs and a corrupt and broken political and infrastructure system.
Zombie Acorn is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 07:16 PM   #18
Huntn
macrumors 604
 
Huntn's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: The Misty Mountains
Quote:
Originally Posted by flopticalcube View Post
Wage inflation here we come.
I think we could stand some wage increases.
__________________
The modern business ethos: "I'm worth it, you're not, and I'm a glutton!"
MBP, 2.2 GHz intel i7, Radeon HD 6750M, Bootcamp: W7.
PC: i5 4670k, 8GB RAM, Asus GTX670 (2GB VRAM), W7.
Huntn is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 13, 2012, 07:22 PM   #19
flopticalcube
macrumors G4
 
flopticalcube's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: In the velcro closure of America's Hat
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huntn View Post
I think we could stand some wage increases.
Indeed but will they be real or just nominal? For those in demand, I thing they will be real, very real.
__________________
Read the Rules / Search the Forums / Use a Descriptive Title
Mac Won't Boot?
flopticalcube is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 16, 2012, 01:28 PM   #20
Bug-Creator
macrumors regular
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Germany
Quote:
Originally Posted by quagmire View Post
bases. If we are based out of NYC, think our $16,000/yr salary can support us living in NYC?)
/me does some quick math....
-> just a bit over 1000Euro a month ???

Some people make more cleaning toilets or cutting hedges !!
Bug-Creator is offline   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 16, 2012, 01:51 PM   #21
quagmire
macrumors 603
 
quagmire's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bug-Creator View Post
/me does some quick math....
-> just a bit over 1000Euro a month ???

Some people make more cleaning toilets or cutting hedges !!
True, but that is just our base salary working at the regionals as a FO. Pay increases significantly once you reach the majors. Southwest pays a 12 year Captain about $220/hr which is close to about $200K/year.

Pilots starting out get paid dirt, but invest your life into it, it will eventually begin to pay a good salary.

Also, not saying I'm happy with the dirt pay starting out. Base pay should be something along $40,000 a year. As another person was saying, who is going to be motivated to spend/take out college loans to go through college and pay all the money to get the required ratings to be an airline pilot just to make $20K/year starting out? Also add in the BS new ATP law, it will just further decrease the amount of pilots to be hired.
__________________
Crimes against US History:
CV-6 USS Enterprise
Yankee Stadium
Penn Station-New York

Last edited by quagmire; Nov 16, 2012 at 02:11 PM.
quagmire is online now   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 16, 2012, 02:09 PM   #22
thekev
macrumors 603
 
thekev's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by hulugu View Post
Par for a particularly gopher-ridden course teeming with crabgrass though.
Bleh he could actually to make sense rather than simply channel anger through his iphone. The thread focused on an upcoming pilot shortage. We had post 9-11 paranoia surrounding airlines, rising fuel prices worldwide, and constant news surrounding the financial problems of major airlines for years. Things like that naturally dissuade people from pursuing such a career path. When salaries and job stability decline, it shouldn't be that big of a surprise. It'll even out eventually.

Quote:
While no one tracks overall attendance at the nation's 3,400 flight schools, FAA data show annual private and commercial pilot certificates—both required to become an airline pilot—are down 41% and 30%, respectively, in the past decade. The National Association of Flight Instructors, in a research paper published this year, said that "there is no feasible way…to continuously supply qualified pilots for the demand of air carriers."
__________________
world's largest manufacturer of tin foil hats, none of that aluminum foil crap.
thekev is online now   0 Reply With Quote
Old Nov 16, 2012, 02:25 PM   #23
LizKat
macrumors 68020
 
LizKat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Catskill Mountains
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnpy!$4g3cwk View Post
Engineering schools tend to be faddish, too, and they can't exactly make people study analog when everybody thinks digital is where the action is. And when digital folks make more than analog folks, it is a tough sell. In the future, power engineering, RF, sensors, and so on will all be hiring, but, right now, analog is a black art engaged in by white-haired wizards.

Man. Now I get it why my dock-clock-radio thing upstairs is so lame. It has an analog volume dial but provides only a bunch of too-far-apart stepped changes.

I remember reading quite a few years ago that engineering schools were starting to have trouble finding people whose brains handle concepts involving spatial relationships well. Part of it is a more passive experience of life, getting a two dimensional representation of three-dimensional objects too early in life.

The schools used to gravitate towards farm-raised kids who had been handling wrenches and wrestling planks onto sawhorses since they were old enough to pick the stuff up. Now we hand them an iPad in infancy. But, passive-reactive experience of objects is no substitute for handling real things.

Give your kid a small wooden block and a milk jug and watch him try to balance the block on the mouth of the jug. He'll get the job done but it takes some experimentation, during which time his brain is learning the fundamentals of sciences that older people have already codified into the books he might learn to read later on. He's a leg up if his brain gets a practical sense of how things work before it has to read and understand descriptions of natural laws that affect what he experiences. It's not the same to watch pictures of a process. It misleads the young brain to oversimplify almost everything that happens in three dimensions. Including my damned clock radio's volume, apparently.
LizKat is offline   1 Reply With Quote


Reply
MacRumors Forums > Mac Community > Community Discussion > Politics, Religion, Social Issues

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Similar Threads
thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Labor Unions Huntn Politics, Religion, Social Issues 96 Apr 26, 2014 01:01 PM
Chinese Labor Group Alleges Major Labor Violations at Apple iPhone 5C Supplier Jabil Circuit [Update: Apple to Investigate] MacRumors MacRumors.com News Discussion 88 Sep 9, 2013 11:19 AM
Labor markets are not always free jnpy!$4g3cwk Politics, Religion, Social Issues 3 Nov 21, 2012 03:44 AM
Labor Issue bigMAC28 Community Discussion 7 Oct 15, 2012 11:25 PM
U.S. Retailers See 27-Inch iMac Shortage Ahead Of September Apple Event Che Castro iMac 18 Aug 22, 2012 05:00 PM

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:35 PM.

Mac Rumors | Mac | iPhone | iPhone Game Reviews | iPhone Apps

Mobile Version | Fixed | Fluid | Fluid HD
Copyright 2002-2013, MacRumors.com, LLC