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Old Nov 28, 2012, 11:05 AM   #26
Renzatic
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If Arafat was assassinated the most likely people to do it are Israel. They have form and motive.

It could potentially in theory be another Palestinian group, or Iran or something, but they wouldn't have an polonium, they'd have used a gunman or a suicide bomber. If that had been the case you'd both have a point.
Were I filled with enough hate and wanted to perpetuate a war, I'd off a well respected moderate using the tools of the enemy. Considering the tensions in the region, no one's likely to look too closely or perform an investigation beyond the superficial evidence. They'd go from zero to flat out blame Israel in three seconds flat.

...which is why it's such a spectacularly bad idea to dig the poor guy up. It doesn't matter if Israel did it or not, they're going to be found guilty regardless.

And more **** will come of it.
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 11:07 AM   #27
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It's all that blindly support which makes all the world's problems so difficult to solve.

With people blindly supporting the other side there is no room for compromise.

Instead of being part of the solution you become part of the problem with that blindly support.
Hard to compromise when the other side has two things on their mind:destruction and terrorism. You can't compromise with extremists. Apparently much of the world still hasn't learned that lesson...
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 11:22 AM   #28
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I guess you can call me a rogue liberal on this issue. My point is that Israel is here to stay, and it won't be shrinking. If they do manage to carve a small section out of it and make it Palestine, that's fine. But the violence won't end there, the Palestinians will want more and more. Give them an inch and they'll take a mile. They even want half of Jerusalem which is a frickin joke. I have no personal reason to blindly support Israel, I'm not a Jew and I've never even been there. Although I will admit that I'm biased against Muslims in general, but they brought it upon themselves.
Although I disagree with everything in that post too, could you please explain what over 1.2 billion people did for you to be 'biased against' them?
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 11:34 AM   #29
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Although I disagree with everything in that post too, could you please explain what over 1.2 billion people did for you to be 'biased against' them?
I think you will find it has something to do with 19 hijackers on a September Morning.
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 11:44 AM   #30
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I think you will find it has something to do with 19 hijackers on a September Morning.
Nope, has more to do with 1.2 billion people who passively condone terrorism. And the one or two who do condone it are drowned out by the masses. When I was in Europe I noticed a lot of resentment for the Muslim immigrants, they never seem to assimilate...
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 12:30 PM   #31
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But on the other side these days it's easy to "outsource" those tasks for some bucks and get it done from someone.
Not with nuclear weapons it isn't. And besides its irrelevant, as no-one else other than Israel would actually give the order as it isn't worth the effort.

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Were I filled with enough hate and wanted to perpetuate a war, I'd off a well respected moderate using the tools of the enemy.
How the hell are Hamas or any other Palestinian group going to get hold of polonium?

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Nope, has more to do with 1.2 billion people who passively condone terrorism. And the one or two who do condone it are drowned out by the masses.
By the same token can I hate all Americans because they passively supported the IRA?

The IRA got its funding from the Irish Americans, and the US government (and by extension American citizens) didn't exactly stop them from doing that.

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When I was in Europe I noticed a lot of resentment for the Muslim immigrants,
AKA racism.
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 12:59 PM   #32
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AKA racism.
AKA Religionismô.

Their programming goes very deep.
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 01:00 PM   #33
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How the hell are Hamas or any other Palestinian group going to get hold of polonium?
No idea. Iran? Ex-Soviet black market? Israel indirectly? If you're really paranoid, you could go on and on about it.

Israel would be the most likely candidate, but think about it. Arafat might've had a bit of a spotty history, but he was ultimately a moderate in the whole affair. He was willing to talk, never called for the destruction of Israel, and was a relatively mellow, level headed presence. No one benefited from his death, least of all Israel.

No one, that is, except for the extremist factions on either side. Islamic fundamentalists who thought anything short of the complete destruction of Israel would be too soft a measure, or hardline Israeli militants who believe it necessary to take control of the entire region at all costs.

Both are minority factions, likely operating under their own agenda. Exposing either side would do no good for a sustained peace between Israel and Palestine, as it'd immediately erupt into a "look what they did" situation, and fuel yet more excuses for violence.

And if it were Israel directly? Doesn't matter. The end result would be exactly the same. More warfare and violence. Hell, even if the results do show us he died of natural causes, the previous rumor alone would still be enough to raise tensions between the two.

No happy ending will come from this.
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 01:19 PM   #34
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Iran?
Given the Iranians want to keep denying having a nuclear program why exactly would they start giving nuclear material to other people? And given they still don't have any nuclear weapons how would they have had polonium back in 2004?

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Ex-Soviet black market?
Given nothing else has come to light from that, why would someone do it now on a figure that is as high profile as Arafat?

Doing it on a high profile figure makes it far more likely your whole operation will get revealed.

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Israel indirectly?
Why would Israel risk giving nuclear material to someone who could potentially use it against them?

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He was willing to talk, never called for the destruction of Israel, and was a relatively mellow, level headed presence. No one benefited from his death, least of all Israel.
I don't think the Israeli's see it like that.

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One thousand Israelis had already been murdered in attacks coming from PA territory under Arafatís leadership

Evidence abounds that Arafat was the force behind the terror war against Israel. First, the PA actively promoted terror and glorified terror through the structures under Arafatís control.

PA-owned official TV was used repeatedly to call for killing Jews in the name of Islam.
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdCo...aspx?id=293557
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 01:46 PM   #35
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Given the Iranians want to keep denying having a nuclear program why exactly would they start giving nuclear material to other people? And given they still don't have any nuclear weapons how would they have had polonium back in 2004?....
first of all, the Iranians don't deny having a nuclear program, they deny using their nuclear program to produce nuclear bombs.

And IIRC, nuclear weapons aren't required to produce polonium.....even a relatively modest research reactor would do. Iran's first research reactor went online back in the late 1960s. The Iranians are hardly the only other potential source; the North Koreans got theirs at about the same time.....and scientists from Pakistan's nuclear program (their nuclear program started in the 1970s...and they have nuclear weapons too) is known to have leaked information and material onto the black market over a number of years, and just how secure are all those Russian facilities, given that fingers have been pointed at Russia in the previous polonium poising case. I've read that there could be as many as 40 to 50 facilities around where polonium could be produced.
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 01:51 PM   #36
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given that fingers have been pointed at Russia in the previous polonium poising case.
Yeah, but in that case the figure involved was a Russian.

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first of all, the Iranians don't deny having a nuclear program, they deny using their nuclear program to produce nuclear bombs.

And IIRC, nuclear weapons aren't required to produce polonium.....even a relatively modest research reactor would do.
But you still attract a great deal of attention that you otherwise wouldn't attract to your nuclear program if you start using it to assassinate other world leaders.
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 02:02 PM   #37
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and scientists from Pakistan's nuclear program (their nuclear program started in the 1970s...and they have nuclear weapons too) is known to have leaked information and material onto the black market over a number of years,
Yeah the Pakistanis have leaked stuff to other countries. Sure. But then why would some other country blow their cover on the acquisition (which undoubtably wasn't cheap) to assassinate this guy that they didn't care about very much?
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 02:17 PM   #38
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....But you still attract a great deal of attention that you otherwise wouldn't attract to your nuclear program if you start using it to assassinate other world leaders.
but that's also an argument against the idea that it was israel.....they've long preferred to NOT draw attention to their nuclear program

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Yeah the Pakistanis have leaked stuff to other countries. Sure. But then why would some other country blow their cover on the acquisition (which undoubtably wasn't cheap) to assassinate this guy that they didn't care about very much?
Pakistani intelligence service is believed to have long standing ties to radical islamist groups in Kashmir and Afghanistan.....altogether possible for some polonium to enter the black market through that route.

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....why would some other country blow their cover on the acquisition (which undoubtably wasn't cheap) to assassinate this guy that they didn't care about very much?
Why would anybody want to assassinate Arafat in 2004? Some revolutionary islamist group that didn't want him making peace with israel perhaps?
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 02:27 PM   #39
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but that's also an argument against the idea that it was israel.....they've long preferred to NOT draw attention to their nuclear program
But now that everyone knows they have nukes why would they care?

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Pakistani intelligence service is believed to have long standing ties to radical islamist groups in Kashmir and Afghanistan.
Oh sure, but there's no evidence that they gave these guys nuclear weapons, and if they did that would be highly likely to lead to nuclear war with India which isn't what the Pakistanis want.

The Pakistanis also wouldn't give their nuclear secrets away for free - and these rebel groups have no money.

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Why would anybody want to assassinate Arafat in 2004?
Because the Israelis hated him, as you can see from link above to the Jerusalem Post.

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Some revolutionary islamist group that didn't want him making peace with israel perhaps?
But again, while they might have done that they aren't known for subtlety and have no obvious source.
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 02:57 PM   #40
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But now that everyone knows they have nukes why would they care?....
That actually argues against the idea that it was israel....they go to all the trouble of a complicated secret plot to kill somebody in a way that immediately suggests themselves as the suspect? Pointing the finger at yourself seems exactly like what they would avoid.....or they would have done it in a much more open way

[QUOTE=Eraserhead;16382627]
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 05:15 PM   #41
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That actually argues against the idea that it was israel....
Well except for the fact that they have no problem dropping bombs on Hamas leaders all the time.

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they go to all the trouble of a complicated secret plot to kill somebody in a way that immediately suggests themselves as the suspect?
It at least provides some "plausible" deniability for the Americans, and frankly they might well have got away with it.
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Old Nov 28, 2012, 06:55 PM   #42
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Well except for the fact that they have no problem dropping bombs on Hamas leaders all the time....
yeah, again everybody knows that.....which argues even more against your point since all they needed to do was send in a hit team. Israel has never been subtle when comes to assassinating people.

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...It at least provides some "plausible" deniability for the Americans, and frankly they might well have got away with it.
Those were the Bush years, I doubt anybody anywhere believed the israelis needed even the smallest bit of "plausible" deniability for the americans.....or even the British for that matter.

Perhaps it was the Kuwaitis settling an old score with Arafat in return for his support of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait? You Brits have always been chummy with the Kuwaitis.....maybe Blair slipped the Kuwaitis some polonium and suggested it would all be blamed on the israelis if anybody found out
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Old Nov 29, 2012, 03:26 AM   #43
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yeah, again everybody knows that.....which argues even more against your point since all they needed to do was send in a hit team. Israel has never been subtle when comes to assassinating people.
Not when everyone else would have been outraged about it. Everyone else knew that Arafat was a moderate.

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Those were the Bush years, I doubt anybody anywhere believed the israelis needed even the smallest bit of "plausible" deniability for the americans.....or even the British for that matter.
Not when the court of public opinion would be against it. Everyone knew he was a moderate and no threat, so it would have come across as an unprovoked assassination of another foreign leader.

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Perhaps it was the Kuwaitis settling an old score with Arafat in return for his support of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait?
And why exactly would the Kuwaitis have any issue with taking out Saddam, he invaded their country only 15 years before the Iraq War.

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You Brits have always been chummy with the Kuwaitis....
And, why exactly would the British want Arafat dead?
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Old Nov 29, 2012, 10:05 AM   #44
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....
And why exactly would the Kuwaitis have any issue with taking out Saddam, he invaded their country only 15 years before the Iraq War.....
uh....YEAH. Your response is a bit confusing. Who said Kuwait had an issue with taking out Saddam??? Perhaps you misread my post?

Arafat supported Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the Kuwaitis were furious with him and the PLO. In response, after the war they expelled the 400,000 to 450,000 Palestinians living in Kuwait. Ethnic cleansing pure and simple. Kuwaiti anger lingered on right up to his death since Arafat refused to apologize for supporting Saddam's invasion of Kuwait.

And they weren't the only Arab country angry with Arafat. Quite a number of the gulf oil states cut off funding the palestinians in response. For a "respected moderate" he had a lot of enemies in the Arab world, even among the Palestinians for that matter.

Mind you, I'm not saying the Kuwaitis actually did kill him.....I'm just pointing out that there a wealth of scenarios......even though you've got the israelis convicted even before it's been demonstrated that he was actually poisoned

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Old Nov 29, 2012, 01:56 PM   #45
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uh....YEAH. Your response is a bit confusing. Who said Kuwait had an issue with taking out Saddam??? Perhaps you misread my post?
If Kuwait didn't have an issue with taking out Saddam they wouldn't be asking for a quid-pro-quo to get the British/Americans to invade Iraq, so why exactly would the British give them polonium?

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Arafat supported Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the Kuwaitis were furious with him and the PLO. In response, after the war they expelled the 400,000 to 450,000 Palestinians living in Kuwait. Ethnic cleansing pure and simple. Kuwaiti anger lingered on right up to his death since Arafat refused to apologize for supporting Saddam's invasion of Kuwait.

And they weren't the only Arab country angry with Arafat. Quite a number of the gulf oil states cut off funding the palestinians in response. For a "respected moderate" he had a lot of enemies in the Arab world, even among the Palestinians for that matter.
And given how rich the Arabs are this at least seems like a plausible theory.

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I'm just pointing out that there a wealth of scenarios.
But all of your previous scenarios weren't really plausible, they either involved a nuclear power doing something seriously bad that's not really in their interests, or they involved some group with no money getting nuclear weapons somehow on the black market - both of which are highly unlikely. That's why I kept pointing out issues with them.
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Old Dec 9, 2012, 01:57 PM   #46
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If Kuwait didn't have an issue with taking out Saddam they wouldn't be asking for a quid-pro-quo to get the British/Americans to invade Iraq, so why exactly would the British give them polonium? ....
You mean Tony didn't tell you?

Maybe he doesn't think you're good at keeping secrets?

So while we wait for reports of polonium from the forensic experts, we can only speculate.

2004; Britain was deep into the war in Iraq and it had become clear that this was not turning out to be just a quick mission to get rid of Saddam, and to the anger of the Gulf States their fellow Sunnis in Iraq were also getting screwed over in favor of Shias. At the time, there was talk that perhaps the Sunnis states should be giving aid to the Sunni resistance fighting both the invaders and the Shia forces that were taking over Iraq.

So what does Britain get in return for polonium? Keeping the Kuwaitis in line at a time when things had gone very bad with the war.

It's extremely easy for British intelligence services to come up with polonium and the risk that they would be suspected is extremely low. Indeed, as you've already demonstrated, people will go right to the idea that it had to be israel......even before it's been shown polonium was involved!

In any event, Arafat had made plenty of enemies over the years so there are certainly other plausible suspects who had a motive and the means to get rid of him
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Old Dec 9, 2012, 04:29 PM   #47
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You mean Tony didn't tell you?
Tony has to have a motive to do it.

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Keeping the Kuwaitis in line
Why would they disapprove of the war?

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It's extremely easy for British intelligence services to come up with polonium and the risk that they would be suspected is extremely low.
Unless there is a leak in the UK government, as often happens.

Sure you can argue there aren't many leaks in UK intelligence, but giving away nuclear secrets is pretty serious stuff, and the Russian/Chinese/US/Israeli spies who found out might well leak it.
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Old Dec 9, 2012, 05:36 PM   #48
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Tony has to have a motive to do it.

Why would they disapprove of the war?.....
Keeping the Kuwaitis from withdrawing support for the war.

Certainly the Kuwaitis were glad to get rid of Saddam but the destruction of Sunni power in Iraq wasn't something they'd been lead to expect, and something they certainly didn't support, especially when it meant transferring power to Shias.

There are certainly other possible reasons of course

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....but giving away nuclear secrets is pretty serious stuff....
Just giving some polonium to the Kuwaitis wouldn't really require giving away any nuclear secrets. And I gather it's easy enough to transport safely. Where was Litvinenko said to be poisoned? At a restaurant? So clearly it's not difficult to use.
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Old Dec 9, 2012, 05:56 PM   #49
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I think they should dig up Goliath while they're at it.

I still believe there was another shooter.

The little fart shouldn't have been that lucky from that distance.
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Old Dec 9, 2012, 05:59 PM   #50
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Keeping the Kuwaitis from withdrawing support for the war.
Frankly I can't believe you are continuing to argue this increasingly absurd conspiracy theory involving multiple governments and a whole bunch of other people turning a blind eye to at best the start of a slippery slope to nuclear proliferation.

All to protect the Israelis who almost certainly did it.

I mean jesus, I don't understand why you didn't stick with the rich Arab story, at least that is actually plausible.
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