...
so it makes sense to simply install the blank hd into the 15mbp, do an internet recovery via command+r.
and if i understand internet recovery correctly, then at the end of it, the computer restarts, and osx will initiate the normal system setup... i can then connect my existing external hd and migrate from my time machine backup.
Yes it does.
Start with cmd+R
Open Disk Utility and format the drive.
Exit Disk Utility
Install Mountain Lion
Restart
During the normal system setup the "Transfer Information to this Mac" screen will appear and that will be the perfect moment to bring over all you want from your Time Machine backups.
Having said that ... considerations with earlier suggestions - read only if you have nothing better to do
Cloning requires:
A. A bootable volume/partition to start from other than the volume/partition you intend to clone.
Or
B. Installing additional Software. Although they offer good features and are worth looking into, neither CCC nor Super Duper is in fact free any more. (They do have free trial periods). Unless you intend to continue using these commercial products after set up, installing them is an unnecessary, additional step.
A. Can be accomplished using the Cmd+R route. Format the 1Tb in an external*, put a clean installation of Mountain Lion on it and use Set Up Assistant for the transfer of files from Time Machine.
Using the Cmd+R route also give access to cloning tools built into Mac OS. When booted from a Recovery Partition you can use Restore in Disk Utility to clone the other partition on the drive.
* Saves a swap to inside the MBP if the new drive turns out to be defective but can be done with the new drive installed inside the MBP as well.
Cloning or restoring completely from a Time Machine back up of a different computer brings risks if the computer on which the System existed doesn't have the same exact hardware as the computer to which it will be cloned. So even if the 13" MBP isn't that old it still has different hardware than the 15".
You don't have an SSD in any of the scenarios but I mention this only as an example - several people had trouble after cloning an internal HD to a new SSD for the same computer.
Since you don't have the 1TB drive the moment the MBP 15" arrives you would bring the changes you made during the "piddling period" over onto your new 1TB drive if you cloned the internal drive at that point. If you do that, you would also forego the advantages of transferring data from your backups using Set Up Assistant on first run.
therefore, scenario b is a little redundant. i can simply maintain everything on my 13mbp once the 15mbp arrives and i wait for the 1tb hd to come. so transferring from 500gb > 500gb hd doesn't make sense.
I suggested it because using the 500GB internal and then transferring data from Time Machine onto the pre-installed OS inside the new 15" MBP doesn't involve an internet download of the OS - not during initial set up and not after the 1TB drive arrives either.
See comment about changes to the system during the "piddling period" for a reason why cloning the System without also transferring from the Time Machine backups onto the new internal 500GB at that point has disadvantages, IMO.
I agree that this scenario involves a few redundant steps in preparation but it doesn't require a re-download of the OS and also has you running from the 1TB in your new MBP in the shortest amount of time once all new hardware has arrived. (which one is faster depends on the speed of your internet connection and on the data transfer speed of the external enclosure you'll be using)