iOS 6 Adoption Uptick Due to iPhone 5 Release in China, Not Google Maps?

[abhimat.gautam]

Lesson of the day: Correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

[tbrinkma]

Originally Posted by iGrip

It just goes to show that when it comes to Apple, you have to trust your own experience. "The numbers" don't prove anything.

It's more that the modern press doesn't bother to actually check whether it's sensational stories have any basis in reality before they toss them out there to be read.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that *EVERY* download of Google Maps comes from someone who had refused to upgrade to iOS 6 until Google Maps was available. And, let's say for the sake of argument that every last one of those downloads went onto the maximum of 5 devices. That's the worst-case scenario for Apple, 50 million devices people refused to purchase or upgrade due to Apple Maps.

Over 200 million iOS 6 device purchases or upgrades happened *before* Google Maps was released, and the number has only increased since then. That means the *incredibly unlikely* worst-case scenario says less than 25% of people actually seem to think that Apple Maps is so bad you can't afford to use iOS 6 until Google Maps is around.

This absolute worst-case scenario is still *better* than the 29% touted in the prior article. It's pretty obvious then that the prior article wasn't correct and had failed to compensate for multiple changing variables.

In reality, the device-count is higher than the 200 million number, most people have 1-3 devices they're going to put an app on (not 5). Many download apps directly to the device (meaning a 1:1 download:device ratio, not 1:5).

It's been pretty obvious the entire time that the 29% story didn't actually reflect reality.

----------

Originally Posted by TallManNY

Your misunderstanding what was reported. It was a 29% increase in unique iOS adoptions over their baseline day. So if on Monday 100 new devices, then Tuesday 110, then Wednesday 120, then Thursday 129, so they reported an adoption rate increase. The percentage was a percentage of new adoptions, which turns out to probably include new devices. The 29% had nothing to do with total iOS users.

Again, I think the Maps "scandal" was a scandal because the media reported it as a scandal. 90% of all iOS users will continue to use Apple Maps. Apple Maps will be fine for their needs. And google maps is out and solves the issue just a couple of months after we got our new phones any way. And Apple Maps pushed Google to make Google Maps better. Thanks Apple. Love scandals that end up in better stuff for customers really quickly.

Also it wasn't Monday-Thursday. It was Tuesday-Saturday, with the Fri-Sat interval showing 22% of the touted 29% growth-rate increase. Strange that the days of the week that are typically bigger shopping days show a higher increase than the mid-week number, isn't it?

[patentlawyer]

Remember, Apple had a "disappointing" qtr after making 8 billion dollars, and the iphone5 was "disappointing" because it only sold five million in three days, and millions of users are unable to use their phones because of "Antennagate", and people are crashing their cars into landmarks because of the "horrible" maps.

The takeaway? Apple issues are always overblown by the media. Nothing new, and its not going to change.

On topic, OF COURSE, it wasn't Google maps. Does anyone really believe that the average customer even knew about these "problems"?

[tbrinkma]

Originally Posted by TheRainKing

You can't use your own experience to define whether it's an issue or not. The fact that it blew up in the media, received a lot of negative press, and Tim Cook himself apologised for it, is proof that it's an issue. Even if only 20% of the people who upgraded to iOS 6 had problems with Apple Maps, that's still a lot of people. Put yourself in their shoes, if you were somewhere in the world where Google Maps had good coverage, and then you upgraded to Apple maps only to find that the coverage was quite poor in your area, you would be a little bit upset. That very scenario happened to a lot of people, and I think they have the right to call it an issue.

Actually, your own experience is about the only way you *can* define whether it's an issue or not. Because if your experience is good, it's not an issue. If your experience is bad, it is an issue.

The fact that it blew up in the media has no bearing on whether it's an issue or not. See the very similar Australian failures of Apple Maps and Google Maps last week. The Apple Maps failure got tons of press coverage. The Google Maps failure barely got any. Hell, the #iLost add got more coverage even though Apple Maps was pointing to the nearest place which actually had the address in question, while Google Maps pointed to a location which *might* have had that address if there had been a building there, but didn't.

The fact that it got lots of negative press coverage is *exactly the same thing* as the fact that it blew up in the media. No need to duplicate something twice in a '3-item' list.

Now, Tim Cook's apology *would* definitely be an indication of a technical issue, had it happened *prior* to the media blow-up. Having happened afterwards, it's just an indication of a PR issue (caused by the media blow-up).

[AppleScruff1]

Does this imply that Apple sold 10 million iPhones in the week since since Google maps was released?

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by AppleScruff1

Does this imply that Apple sold 10 million iPhones in the week since since Google maps was released?

No.

[AppleScruff1]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

No.

If it wasn't due to US users updating, and over 2 million iPhones were sold in China in three days, plus launches in other countries, that could have chewed up a lot of those 10 million Google downloads. No?

[MisterK]

Originally Posted by alfistas

Do you care to elaborate on this for me please? Which 3rd party navigation app did you use that was worse, in your experience, than Google maps?

Thanks

No problem. Going from my (now unused) Travel folder on my iPhone, for mass transit in the UK I was using the National Rail, London Tube, and Busmapper apps. I was also using Waze, Quick Route, and Nokia's HERE Maps (in addition to Apple's Maps). I did download a few others that I can't recall, but I've since deleted them.

Google is the world's premier mapping service now. There is no denying it. To downplay Apple's Maps as anything less than an unmitigated disaster is to lose all credibility when arguing stuff that people really ARE blowing out of proportion. At least two men at Apple have been fired, the CEO has apologized, people in Australia have been stranded and needed to be rescued, blogs have popped up showing melting national landmarks and bridges, buildings are labelled as parking lots, and I've personally gotten lost several times using Apple's Maps in London, UK and Toronto, Canada... hardly small cities.

As for people requesting that I append my comments by saying it's been a disaster "for me", of course... how else do you judge anything? It goes without saying that in 2 of the world's major cities that I've used Apple's Maps in, they've been a disaster "for me". Seems like they've been a disaster for a lot of other people too. This is not a conspiracy.

I think it's right for Apple to create their own maps.. honestly, I do. I get it. I want Apple to create a competitive maps application so we iOS users don't have to depend on Android leftovers, but they need to do A LOT better. Maps are important. Bad or incomplete data can waste hours of people's lives and even put those lives at risk. You can't provide someone with a crutch and complain when they use it.

Google having a head start on Apple is also not an excuse. We wouldn't excuse a new entrant airline flying us on the Wright Bros' Kitty Hawk just because other airlines have had time to develop their fleet. You must compete at the level of your competition now... not their capabilities years ago.

[alfistas]

Originally Posted by MisterK

No problem. Going from my (now unused) Travel folder on my iPhone, for mass transit in the UK I was using the National Rail, London Tube, and Busmapper apps. I was also using Waze, Quick Route, and Nokia's HERE Maps (in addition to Apple's Maps). I did download a few others that I can't recall, but I've since deleted them.

OIC! I was under the impression you were comparing Google Maps to proper navigation solutions like Garmin, Navigon, Tom Tom and Destinator.

Originally Posted by MisterK

Google is the world's premier mapping service now. There is no denying it.

As above, if you don't want to invest on a proper navigation app or you're not serious about navigation I'd think Gmaps is your best bet right now.

[TallManNY]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

That explanation makes a lot more sense, but I would say the numbers were misreported and mispromoted. From the original post:

MoPub CEO Jim Payne, who had this to say:
"We observed since the launch of Google Maps for iOS 6 a 30 percent increase in unique iOS 6 users, and we think it's related to Google Maps."

From the graph:
"29% Growth in unique iOS6 users"

Agreed it was confusing. But as you pointed out 29% of all iOS users is just a huge huge number. You would have to be a serious user of Google Maps to have not done the upgrade by now. Maybe there are a few folks. But I would think curiosity about the upgrade would get most people within a week or two.

[MisterK]

Originally Posted by alfistas

OIC! I was under the impression you were comparing Google Maps to proper navigation solutions like Garmin, Navigon, Tom Tom and Destinator.




As above, if you don't want to invest on a proper navigation app or you're not serious about navigation I'd think Gmaps is your best bet right now.

I don't think I should have to shell out $50+ to make maps on my phone work when there it used to come with something already quite good and is now advertised to include great maps (that aren't). Also, I have a standalone Garmin Nüvi that I had to dust off that's not as good as Google's Maps app, so I know what Garmin is capable of. None of the ones you mentioned, besides being far more expensive than Google's offering and not being as good, also include public transit. Google does.

[SnowLeopard2008]

Originally Posted by MH01

Bless that you can put such a positive spin on it. Though let's look at the facts, Tim had to officially apologise. Let's not bs each other, had apple maps not been a disaster outside of the states Tim would not have done it. Tim was not apologises cause it had "issues" Tim was apologising cause it was darn right awful in some countries.

I have both a S3 and iPhone 5 in London . Comparing the two, apple maps is crap.

Scott Forstall, the guy who led the development of said product, did not want to apologize. Put it this way, a few years ago some idiot followed his GPS (or her, I forget) and drove into the ocean. Another person drove off a cliff. Did the companies behind the product apologize? No. I actually think Cook was wrong to apologize. Maps is not that bad. Even that Australia "blunder" showed that Google Maps, the seasoned veteran, was wrong AS WELL. There is LESS reason for Google Maps to be wrong than Apple Maps. Why? Because Google Maps has existed for so damn long. They are expected to have less errors than Apple. Period.\

Funny because my friend is currently in London right now. He has been always pro-Android. He's a developer (like me) and has owned every Nexus except the first one and the last two Galaxy S phones. He has told me that Google Maps is barely better than Apple Maps and that Apple Maps has more locations data points. Your testimony is not representative of everyone. Just yourself. Same goes for my/my friend's experience. YMMV, as always is the case with GPS.

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by AppleScruff1

If it wasn't due to US users updating, and over 2 million iPhones were sold in China in three days, plus launches in other countries, that could have chewed up a lot of those 10 million Google downloads. No?

Not sure what you are getting at here.

MoPub released some numbers that show a 29% increase in the number of iOS6 users that upgraded each day globally over the course of 4 days. They attributed this to the release of Google Maps.

However, Chitika disputed that conclusion because they didn't see any jump in the US and Canadian markets, which they cover. Their conclusion was the global jump in new iOS6 users per day was more likely due to the 2 million iPhone 5's that Apple sold in China in that same time period during the Chinese iPhone launch.

[AppleScruff1]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

Not sure what you are getting at here.

MoPub released some numbers that show a 29% increase in the number of iOS6 users that upgraded each day globally over the course of 4 days. They attributed this to the release of Google Maps.

However, Chitika disputed that conclusion because they didn't see any jump in the US and Canadian markets, which they cover. Their conclusion was the global jump in new iOS6 users per day was more likely due to the 2 million iPhone 5's that Apple sold in China in that same time period during the Chinese iPhone launch.

There were 10 million Google map downloads in a week. If not many of the iOS upgrades came from the US, they came from abroad. China sold 2 million+ iPhones in 3 days. Where did the other 8 million downloads come from if it wasn't from iPhone 5 sales?

[patentlawyer]

Originally Posted by AppleScruff1

There were 10 million Google map downloads in a week. If not many of the iOS upgrades came from the US, they came from abroad. China sold 2 million+ iPhones in 3 days. Where did the other 8 million downloads come from if it wasn't from iPhone 5 sales?

Did they say it was new users downloading? Couldn't it just have been current iPhone owners dling it?

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by AppleScruff1

There were 10 million Google map downloads in a week. If not many of the iOS upgrades came from the US, they came from abroad. China sold 2 million+ iPhones in 3 days. Where did the other 8 million downloads come from if it wasn't from iPhone 5 sales?

As pointed out, that makes no sense. iOS 6 and Google Maps are available on a lot more devices than just the iPhone 5.

[RobHague]

Originally Posted by Heb 7:4

I live in London. Apple maps is utter *****. The web version of google maps was also awful. I live in a household where four users waited until the new google maps app (which is excellent) before upgrading to iOS6.

I appreciate it may work well in the US, but it is difficult to express quite how badly apple maps hurt apple's reputation in the UK.

Isn't it amazing how two people can have exact opposite experiences with the same product? Oh well, such is life.

I live in the UK too (of course) and even where I live (which is rather remote) I have not had any problems. The only one of note was an out of date overhead sat image (like so out of date my neighbours house wasn't even built!) which I reported and it magically got fixed about 3 weeks later.

[louis.b]

Originally Posted by TheRainKing

Why did you put the word 'issue' in quotes like there isn't actually a problem with Apple Maps?

Have you tried using it outside of America?. In some places Apple Maps is absolutely terrible. Just because your not experiencing the problem doesn't mean there isn't an issue.

Yes I have tried using the map in SYdney Australia. Works awesome. NOt being sarcastic.

[Heb 7:4]

Originally Posted by RobHague

Isn't it amazing how two people can have exact opposite experiences with the same product? Oh well, such is life.

I live in the UK too (of course) and even where I live (which is rather remote) I have not had any problems. The only one of note was an out of date overhead sat image (like so out of date my neighbours house wasn't even built!) which I reported and it magically got fixed about 3 weeks later.

I've never used satellite imagery to be honest. Don't see the point, and didn't really see why people made a big deal of it. Equally, I have a satnav that frankly pisses on both apple maps and googles turn by turn. So neither of those were a big deal.

What is a big deal is a map that knows where stuff is. Apple maps just has so much wrong or missing, and it's not like London is remote. It's a major world city. The colour scheme is similarly awful and standard navigating features (such as tube stops) were missing at various zoom levels, and didn't stand out from train stations.

We just don't use Yelp in the UK. It's pointless to link to their data. Outside of London, apple maps had who,e towns misspelled or locted miles away. Bottom line, I can't trust it to get me where I want to go, which in a map is unforgivable. Thankfully I only upgraded my iPad, but have done my phone now google maps is out. Apple will need to do a lot of work to win my trust back, and I'm about to move to Dubai (another pretty major city) where apple maps is even worse.

[SlCKB0Y]

Originally Posted by SnowLeopard2008

Apple Maps has ... a significantly larger locations database than Google.

What rubbish. Even with whatever Apple does have, half of them arent in the right place anyways.

[Plutonius]

Originally Posted by supertomtom

I don't understand your logic. If there are issues with the map, then there are issues. It's not a subjective thing. There has been many destinations, point of interests, cities where users have identified issues. If you travel to these places and look for yourself then you'll 100% experience the same issue because it's inherent to the map app itself. Just because the places you visit THUS FAR isn't on that list, doesn't mean the issues aren't real.

It's like saying wifi reception doesn't work anywhere but your bedroom. Everyone in the house complains that there's an issue but because you never venture out of your bedroom, so you decide that there aren't really "issues". The truth is that once you step out of your room you'll have issues too.

Many people including myself have no issues at all with Apple maps. This doesn't mean that other people aren't having issues and there are many that are. Think of it as similar to the AT+T / Verizon arguments. Many people have posted that either AT+T or Verizon is a terrible phone service because it doesn't work well for them. The truth is that the services work well for some and poor for others. The same is true for Apple maps where it works for some but not for others (especially outside the US). Just because Apple maps works for you, doesn't make it a good product. Likewise, just because Apple maps doesn't work for you, doesn't make it a failure and a bad product.

[alfistas]

Originally Posted by MisterK

I don't think I should have to shell out $50+ to make maps on my phone work when there it used to come with something already quite good

That depends on how much you rely on your device for navigation. If you don't drive/walk around much then I suppose the price is high.

Originally Posted by MisterK

and is now advertised to include great maps (that aren't).

I have no idea how well Apple maps work as I don't own an iPhone.

Originally Posted by MisterK

Also, I have a standalone Garmin Nüvi that I had to dust off that's not as good as Google's Maps app, so I know what Garmin is capable of.

If you've had to dust it off that means your nuvi isn't very new. Also there are differences between models. In terms of accuracy and reliability Google doesn't even come close to Garmin/Navigon.

Originally Posted by MisterK

None of the ones you mentioned, besides being far more expensive than Google's offering and not being as good, also include public transit. Google does.

Perhaps you have been misinformed but both Garmin and Navigon are infinetly better than Google maps AND offer public transport information.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/09/20/navigon-ios6-update/

http://www.garmin.com/uk/maps/cityxplorer

[SnowLeopard2008]

Originally Posted by SlCKB0Y

What rubbish. Even with whatever Apple does have, half of them arent in the right place anyways.

Half? Apple's locations database is significantly larger than Google's. This is fact. Go read before you post incorrect crap. As for navigation, voice directions, etc. YMMV.

[SlCKB0Y]

Originally Posted by SnowLeopard2008

Apple's locations database is significantly larger than Google's.

Ok, I didn't know that.

What is the size of Apple's database and what is the size of Google's?

You must have access to this information to speak so authoritatively right?

[pirateyarrr]

Originally Posted by NoNothing

Having used iOS 6 maps to navigate more than 4000 mile in North America, I would be surprised if the 1% number is to far off.

So no, it is based on actual use and experience.

http://nationalatlas.gov/transportation.html

Since the United States alone has at least 3.9 million miles of public roads (and then there's Canada and Mexico to contend with), your paltry 4000 miles represents less than .1% of the total miles of roads in North America. So yes, your anecdotal experience is virtually worthless in making a judgement for the millions of users of map apps.

Imagine if a person that followed directions that involved 5 turns found that one of them was wrong in Apple Maps, and then told you, "That's it! 20% of Apple Maps is inaccurate!" Same uninformed opinion, opposite extreme.