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Old Jan 1, 2013, 04:53 PM   #1
ThatsMeRight
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Arrow Looking back, Apple might actually launch a new iPhone in June 2013!

Today, Macrumors reported that iOS 7 and the next-gen iPhone have shown up in logs. I looked back and I found an interesting pattern: usually five months after the first logs about a new iOS-version show up, a new iPhone launches.

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I hope Apple is moving back to the June launch schedule for iPhone!

Think about it: what is their most important product? iPhone. And their second most important? iPad.

It is important to have a good line-up in time for the holiday season and that's why, this year, they launched a new iPhone and new iPads in September and October, respectively.

They have had one problem this holiday season: supply! I think Apple doesn't want to launch any new products in November anymore (announcing them in October). And I even feel October isn't acceptable for them anymore. Think about it: iPhone 5 supply was only catching up in late November, early December and they still didn't manage to have the iPhone 5 launch in all countries where the 4S is already available.

iPad mini was even worse: even now there is an estimated two weeks shipping time. That's bad, because it is harder for customers to "just pick up an iPad mini in-store".

I think they'll move back to the June launch schedule for the iPhone. This means that they'll have enough time to ramp up production for the new iPhone and then, by October or November, any shortages should have been reduced to a minimum and the new iPhone will be available in all countries where Apple wants it to be available.

iPad? Either early spring (March) or late summer/early fall (September/October). Probably September/October, so it is close to the holiday season.

iPhone is more important than iPad, though. Every two years, most people get a new phone. An iPad? For most people until it breaks down.

A look at history
So, when I like in the Macrumors archive we see this:

2012: iOS 6 first showed up in March 2012. The new iPhone launched in September. Five months between discovery of iOS 6 'mentions' and launch.
http://www.macrumors.com/2012/03/02/...p-in-web-logs/

2011: iOS 5 first showed up in late April 2011. The new iPhone launched in October. Five months between discovery of iOS 5 'mentions' and and launch.
http://www.macrumors.com/2011/04/27/...-from-ios-5-0/

2010: iOS 4 first showed up in December 2009. The new iPhone launched in June. Five months between discovery iOS 4 'mentions' and launch.
http://www.macrumors.com/2009/12/14/...iphone-4-0-os/

Looking at history...
Counting this month and looking at past launch patterns, than a new iPhone should launch in June.

Of course, this is all speculation, but the fact that iOS 7 shows up this early could indicate that a new iPhone is going to launch sooner than we anticipated.

Last edited by ThatsMeRight; Jan 1, 2013 at 05:51 PM.
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Old Jan 1, 2013, 04:59 PM   #2
MattMJB0188
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Couldn't agree more with you. iPhone launches in the summer were way more fun haha.

I think the 4S only saw a Fall launch because they didn't want to release it a few months after Verizon got the iPhone 4. June 2013 would be perfect for the iPhone 5S/6.

We'll know if they hold a developers preview for iOS 7 in March though.
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Old Jan 1, 2013, 05:11 PM   #3
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I completely agree with you. I also have a feeling Apple wants to lose the predictability of their "cycles", possibly because it's hurting sales. Look at the iPad refresh after only 6 months, quite "un-Apple". The only other "mid cycle" changes I can think of was the addition of the 16GB model of the first iPhone after a few months, dropping the 4GB model simultaneously and launching the Verizon iPhone 4 in the beginning of 2011.
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Old Jan 1, 2013, 05:52 PM   #4
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I don't think that they necessarily want to be unpredictable, but that they are just trying out stuff and see what works best.
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Old Jan 1, 2013, 07:44 PM   #5
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This is very well spotted! If we are expecting the new iPhone in the June time period, when would iOS 7 be shown? Would they do an iOS 4 and show it at the announcement (with the release about a week later ) or would they announce it earlier (like March or something) with a few months of betas.

If they did announce it earlier then it seems really really soon after iOS 6, but if the case then maybe they had some people working on iOS 6 (which lets be honest was a smaller update than 5 was) with a lot of others on 7? That would be awesome.

I am excited for what 2013 brings!
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Old Jan 1, 2013, 08:07 PM   #6
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As long as the iPhone 6 comes out in Oct. 2014 Im happy. 👍
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Old Jan 1, 2013, 10:05 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MattMJB0188 View Post
We'll know if they hold a developers preview for iOS 7 in March though.
if the OP theory holds true, then this is what follows. unless apple did the unthinkable and announce & launch iOS 7 on june and give developers 0 day to prepare
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Old Jan 1, 2013, 10:51 PM   #8
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That last point especially seems to stick out to me. The fact that in the past it's always been five months since first seeing the new iOS version pop up and the new iPhone announced calls for a pattern.

And I agree on your other points. Having a June/July release allows for the supply to catch up by the time the holiday season rolls around. This time it doesn't seem like they got as many sales as they could've due to the supply being a couple weeks out from order.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 12:17 AM   #9
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Good catch OP. I agree it would make total sense.

Also, it's possible that given many of the reported issues that seem to be related to the iPhone 5's soft aluminum body, they would use a June release to allow them to implement any possible engineering changes to the phone more quickly than they would have otherwise.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 12:30 AM   #10
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WTF i just bought an iPhone 5 today. Oh well, I'd probably sell it if a 5S came out this summer.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 12:34 AM   #11
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One big difference now. Steve Jobs is dead. Tim Cook is in charge. Apple now revolves on Tim's schedule. iPhone 5 sold more phones in fall than what the of earlier iphones sold in the summer. Tim's job is to keep the shareholders happy. Fall is the money making season for smartphones.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 01:26 AM   #12
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Apple typically does not care what the rest of the industry does. But count me in the camp that they need to iterate faster to keep up with Android, b/c make no mistake, they will be behind soon.

Either Apple or the peanut gallery is going to be right. If the peanut gallery is right, and Apple keeps seeing marketshare erode to mac levels (10%), then the storyline should be that Apple has once again repeated its mistakes--large lead for mac vs ibm, then lost the lead, then exists as a niche player.

Apple will spin the idea that making expensive, luxury products makes them a ton of money even at 10% of the market, and they have room to grow. But the truth will be that there's a ceiling that luxury products have for companies who operate only in the premium range. The marketshare is always going to recede back to the 10% range after an initial boom as lower alternative products get better and better (Android) and human nature kicks in (why pay so much more if I don't have to).

What's imperative for companies like Apple is true innovation, and the iOS marketshare is dropping, and eventually profits will too and growth (which fuels stock prices) will definitely slow...so they need the next new must-have product. I would argue that Apple is more dependent on this than a "me-too" company like Samsung. Simply put: there's more money in copying and going after marketshare in the long term than playing the luxury game and dooming yourself to low marketshare after around 10 years. It's very steady income, but stock prices operate on growth.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 02:15 AM   #13
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Looks like an early prototype of the 5S has been leaked, Facetime HD camera moved back to the side of the speaker.

http://iosvlog.com/iphone-5s-photo-a...-logs-surface/
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 02:16 AM   #14
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Also something to note...

Samsung Galaxy S4 is widely reported to come in April

Apple could move the iPhone from fall back to summer do to this.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 08:19 AM   #15
ThatsMeRight
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unagimiyagi View Post
Apple typically does not care what the rest of the industry does. But count me in the camp that they need to iterate faster to keep up with Android, b/c make no mistake, they will be behind soon.

Either Apple or the peanut gallery is going to be right. If the peanut gallery is right, and Apple keeps seeing marketshare erode to mac levels (10%), then the storyline should be that Apple has once again repeated its mistakes--large lead for mac vs ibm, then lost the lead, then exists as a niche player.

Apple will spin the idea that making expensive, luxury products makes them a ton of money even at 10% of the market, and they have room to grow. But the truth will be that there's a ceiling that luxury products have for companies who operate only in the premium range. The marketshare is always going to recede back to the 10% range after an initial boom as lower alternative products get better and better (Android) and human nature kicks in (why pay so much more if I don't have to).

What's imperative for companies like Apple is true innovation, and the iOS marketshare is dropping, and eventually profits will too and growth (which fuels stock prices) will definitely slow...so they need the next new must-have product. I would argue that Apple is more dependent on this than a "me-too" company like Samsung. Simply put: there's more money in copying and going after marketshare in the long term than playing the luxury game and dooming yourself to low marketshare after around 10 years. It's very steady income, but stock prices operate on growth.
Well, Apple will never hold a big market share: it is hard to compete with a $649-costing iPhone, when there are much, much cheaper Android alternatives.

Also, the market share you are talking about (namely sold units) doesn't matter. If there's anything they first teach you when doing something that involves business, is that the market share in TURNOVER and/or PROFIT counts. Apple has by far the highest profit in the smartphone industry.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 08:13 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by irDigital0l View Post
Also something to note...

Samsung Galaxy S4 is widely reported to come in April

Apple could move the iPhone from fall back to summer do to this.
You might be right that they may be able to compete better with Samsung.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 08:25 AM   #17
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Whatever hardware release schedule Apple settles on, they need to pay more attention to refreshing the look and feel of iOS. When people switch from the iPhone, its primarily because they are bored with it. Yes it gets the job done, but its starting to look primitive compared to other mobile operating systems.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 08:26 AM   #18
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i hope they dont ! id prefer october ... so at least i have the newest phone for at least a year

tbh im tempted by the nexus 4 if its ever back in stock ...
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Old Jan 5, 2013, 02:02 PM   #19
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Currently, all rumors (like this one) point to a summer launch.
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Old Jan 5, 2013, 02:28 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unagimiyagi View Post
Apple typically does not care what the rest of the industry does. But count me in the camp that they need to iterate faster to keep up with Android, b/c make no mistake, they will be behind soon.

Either Apple or the peanut gallery is going to be right. If the peanut gallery is right, and Apple keeps seeing marketshare erode to mac levels (10%), then the storyline should be that Apple has once again repeated its mistakes--large lead for mac vs ibm, then lost the lead, then exists as a niche player.

Apple will spin the idea that making expensive, luxury products makes them a ton of money even at 10% of the market, and they have room to grow. But the truth will be that there's a ceiling that luxury products have for companies who operate only in the premium range. The marketshare is always going to recede back to the 10% range after an initial boom as lower alternative products get better and better (Android) and human nature kicks in (why pay so much more if I don't have to).

What's imperative for companies like Apple is true innovation, and the iOS marketshare is dropping, and eventually profits will too and growth (which fuels stock prices) will definitely slow...so they need the next new must-have product. I would argue that Apple is more dependent on this than a "me-too" company like Samsung. Simply put: there's more money in copying and going after marketshare in the long term than playing the luxury game and dooming yourself to low marketshare after around 10 years. It's very steady income, but stock prices operate on growth.
Apple will NEVER revert back to being a "niche" player. It's impossible at this point. They are too big. They are also in 1st place by a mile. They are not worrying about catching up, or releasing products faster because of competition. All they have to do is keep improving at a nice easy pace. The days of groundbreaking cell phone or tablet technology (aka original iPhone/iPad) are pretty much over for now. The phones we have now will just keep improving in small increments year after year. A couple of surprises will be thrown in along the way, but we're at least 10-15 years away from another "original iPhone" groundbreaker.
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Old Jan 5, 2013, 02:32 PM   #21
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As long as the iPhone 6 comes out in Oct. 2014 Im happy. 👍
I'm hoping it is way earlier then that....way earlier!
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Old Jan 5, 2013, 03:15 PM   #22
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I don't think that they necessarily want to be unpredictable, but that they are just trying out stuff and see what works best.
I agree, it's a new era with Cook at the helm, and ferocious competition from Samsung, and other Android hanset builders.

Apple is simply adjusting to the current market conditions. Trying to maintain the lead they have now, but may not going forward. Nothing lasts forever.
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Old Jan 5, 2013, 03:34 PM   #23
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I'm hoping it is way earlier then that....way earlier!
Lol That when my 2 yr contract will be up! Selfish? Much 😁
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Old Jan 5, 2013, 05:00 PM   #24
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First and foremost, I think apple releases products when they're ready. Of course they have targeted schedules, but if certain key features or components aren't ready, I think they just wait.

As for going to a June 13 release for the sole purpose of targeting ample supplies for the Christmas season, I think that's not logical. Us the US holiday season important? Yes. But the Asian holiday season is probably more important going forward. That season starts in late jan-early feb. A June iPhone release means that Asian would be giving 8 month old iPhone as gifts. Probably not ideal.

Two iPhone/iPad releases per year can solve this problem. But Apple misses out on the annual hype as demand would get spread out over the year rather than popping in Oct.

Anyways just my opinion.
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Old Jan 5, 2013, 06:39 PM   #25
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OP has a good theory, but there's another possibility. Apple may be testing iOS 7 for a summer release. It could be launched with a new iPad, or maybe even on its own (I know this would be unprecedented, but Apple may be eager to put iOS 6 behind them after all the negativity it has gotten). That way they could "freshen up" iOS to keep people satisfied during the long wait until October when the 5S is released. It would also help them stay fresh just as the new Samsung Galaxy S4 is being released. Just another possibility.
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