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Old Jan 3, 2013, 12:24 PM   #76
hydr
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Originally Posted by IJ Reilly View Post
I don't do predictions myself, but if only to test the reality of your comment I will note that $14.22 EPS would represent a 21% increase year-over-year. So where does this fall in the spectrum of Apple's earnings growth rates over the last few years? I don't have the numbers at my fingertips but I think at the lower end surely. Put it this way, how much stock value increase would be supported by a 21% EPS growth? In short, you are predicting that AAPL will run up at about twice the rate of EPS (and PE will jump up). Just so we know. What we don't know is why you think so.

As for the analysts, we don't know what will "disappoint" them because we have yet to see any forecasts. They will be coming in the next couple of weeks and they will be based on projected sales and margins. They will be guesses, but be based on far less "out of the air" numbers than you have ventured.
My predictions are just taken out of thin air just to be clear. Apple beat their EPS guidance by 7 and 14% the last two quarters, and by almost 40% for 12Q1. I think they they sold a ton of products hence the revenue increase, while profit margins suffered due to higher cost of introducing so many new products.

Analysts makes far more educated guesses, but at the end of the day itīs just exactly that guesses. :-)

I would point out though, that on a personal level I donīt think there is a genuine correlation between the share price drop, and Apples current moment. There is nothing that would indicate for me that Apple has lost its way, that their products suck more now than a year ago, or that customers have stopped buying Apple products. For me Apple seem as strong as ever, and that they are just getting started. Bring on the competition.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 01:28 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by hydr View Post
My predictions are just taken out of thin air just to be clear. Apple beat their EPS guidance by 7 and 14% the last two quarters, and by almost 40% for 12Q1. I think they they sold a ton of products hence the revenue increase, while profit margins suffered due to higher cost of introducing so many new products.

Analysts makes far more educated guesses, but at the end of the day itīs just exactly that guesses. :-)

I would point out though, that on a personal level I donīt think there is a genuine correlation between the share price drop, and Apples current moment. There is nothing that would indicate for me that Apple has lost its way, that their products suck more now than a year ago, or that customers have stopped buying Apple products. For me Apple seem as strong as ever, and that they are just getting started. Bring on the competition.
Seems reasonable. Analysts all have their models but the basic inputs are all going to be similar and come down to gross revenue and margins estimates. Painting them as evil stock manipulators has never worked for me, especially as I know they tend to be very conservative in their estimates (the affiliated analysts anyway). People are always going to say they are clueless or have ulterior motives whether they guess high or low, and since they're always going to be one or the other, the conspiracy loop is closed.

I discount short-term stock price moves (anything less than a few months in my book) and believe in looking for trends, which tend to be reflected in PE. A compressing PE signals a market consensus that earnings growth rates are slowing down. This is actually the longline trend for AAPL going back over five years and more. So when the PE jumps as it did last year I figure the market is probably getting ahead of earnings, unless some new trend is taking hold, which I doubt.

I believe that Apple is facing the strongest competitive headwinds they've experienced in some time; this doesn't spell gloom and doom, but it does mean we probably aren't going to see as many blowout earning reports. Expectations need to be more realistic. They'd become unrealistic last year.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 04:07 PM   #78
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For what it's worth, per StreetInsider, the average 1-week change in AAPL stock price following earnings call is (+)2.9%. (I believe this is based on past 8 calls.) Granted, you should never base buying decisions with a week-long time frame, but it sort of calls into question the idea that AAPL goes down after earnings.

The only way AAPL's currently depressed P/E makes any sense is if you feel that earnings are going to go down by a good 20 or 30 percent - which seems extraordinarily unlikely.

What's particularly funny about the current angst over AAPL earnings is that you could read posts from a year ago at this time and find exactly the same concerns - right before the earnings results beat consensus predictions by nearly 40%.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 04:15 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by 3N16MA View Post
January 23

Apple: "Our best quarter ever!"

Analysts and investors: "Apple sucks because they did not live up to our unreachable expectations!"

Random MR poster: "Apple is doomed!"

Next day

Apple continues to print money
The perfect post! :beer:
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 04:21 PM   #80
IJ Reilly
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Originally Posted by Dave00 View Post
For what it's worth, per StreetInsider, the average 1-week change in AAPL stock price following earnings call is (+)2.9%. (I believe this is based on past 8 calls.) Granted, you should never base buying decisions with a week-long time frame, but it sort of calls into question the idea that AAPL goes down after earnings.

The only way AAPL's currently depressed P/E makes any sense is if you feel that earnings are going to go down by a good 20 or 30 percent - which seems extraordinarily unlikely.

What's particularly funny about the current angst over AAPL earnings is that you could read posts from a year ago at this time and find exactly the same concerns - right before the earnings results beat consensus predictions by nearly 40%.
Must be that "wall of worry" we keep hearing about. I wouldn't characterize the current PE for AAPL as being depressed. It's been charting pretty steadily lower for many years now and has remained in the low to middle teens for some time. What this reflects is concerns about earnings growth rates, not a decrease in earnings. If earnings were to actually go down, the market reaction would be shock and horror.

Thanks for adding the statistic, but you can't kill that persistent myth with a tire iron.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 04:39 PM   #81
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Going to be a stock-broker? LOL
Computer Science.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 04:55 PM   #82
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Probably a $17-18 billion EBITA figure, blowing last year's out of the water which blew the previous one out of the water and so on. Apple's exponential growth knows no bounds. Onwards to $200 billion cash!
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 05:00 PM   #83
AT06
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Probably a $17-18 billion EBITA figure, blowing last year's out of the water which blew the previous one out of the water and so on. Apple's exponential growth knows no bounds. Onwards to $200 billion cash!
No doubt! Apple has truly shown how to build a company - quality, simplicity and service. I don't think they will get to the trillion mark, but I'm sure they will remain one of the most valuable company's in the World.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 05:19 PM   #84
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Some sort of inverse straddle?

I note that almost no one here thinks the stock price will flat-line at the current level. Way up, way down, up then down, down then up, whatever. If I were a gambler, I think this might mean I should bet on the volatility by buying both puts and calls, and letting investors go epileptic over however the AAPL results turn out compared to the analyst delusions.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 05:56 PM   #85
IJ Reilly
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Originally Posted by smoledman View Post
Probably a $17-18 billion EBITA figure, blowing last year's out of the water which blew the previous one out of the water and so on. Apple's exponential growth knows no bounds. Onwards to $200 billion cash!
Yeah, Apple is saving for its retirement.

Talk like this reminds me of the classic story about JP Morgan and the shoeshine boy.
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 06:42 PM   #86
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Computer Science.
Assuming you passed, congrats!!
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Old Jan 3, 2013, 09:33 PM   #87
trunten
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To the company that has more money on hand than the US government. :beer: (macrumors should add this emoji)
If we all keep using it then eventually it'll hit critical mass and they'll have to.

So, cheers! :beer:

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I have no apple stock. - Think different
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Old Jan 14, 2013, 11:53 PM   #88
hydr
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Thought Iīd post my 2013 estimate prior to Q1 ER. Currently the share price is at $502USD. Here are my estimates:

Revenue: 202B.
Profit: 90.6B
Cash: $174B
EPS: 60
Share price will probably be around $780USD by the end of the year. Up a bit from todays $502 :-)

Total IOS devices sold 2013:
313.6mill

iPhones:
2013: 187million 50% increase from 2012 125million up 73% from 72mil 2011
iPad:
2013: 98.6million 70% increase from 2012 58million up 80% from 32 2011
iPod:
2013: 28million -20% decrease from 2012: 35mil down 17% from 42mil 2011
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Old Jan 15, 2013, 03:59 AM   #89
xofruitcake
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Originally Posted by hydr View Post
Thought Iīd post my 2013 estimate prior to Q1 ER. Currently the share price is at $502USD. Here are my estimates:

Revenue: 202B.
Profit: 90.6B
Cash: $174B
EPS: 60
Share price will probably be around $780USD by the end of the year. Up a bit from todays $502 :-)

Total IOS devices sold 2013:
313.6mill

iPhones:
2013: 187million 50% increase from 2012 125million up 73% from 72mil 2011
iPad:
2013: 98.6million 70% increase from 2012 58million up 80% from 32 2011
iPod:
2013: 28million -20% decrease from 2012: 35mil down 17% from 42mil 2011
Wow.. One step at a time.. how do you get to $60 earning for fiscal 2013? management projection for F1Q13 in F4Q12 earning call is 11.75 and it is the best earning quarter in the year...With Tim Cook's fast launch for both Iphone 5 and Ipad (100 countries in 4Q12), F3Q13 (2Q13) sales will drop like a rock. I don't sell a way to get to $60 a share with things that we know today. I hope you didn't bet your house on this set of prediction...
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Old Jan 17, 2013, 09:02 AM   #90
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Apple should in NO way help bail out the United States....
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Old Jan 17, 2013, 09:34 AM   #91
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Apple is sure to have had a blow out holiday quarter with the refreshed products lines. Preliminary numbers from Gartner are encouraging, showing a 5.4% US growth in a declining PC segment, even though IDC is claiming a slight decline (less than the overall market decline).

Of course, we're coming off the iPhone 5 launch quarter, so numbers there will be strong, no matter what people think.

I think there won't be major surprises as far as earnings go for Q1 '13 (the holiday quarter Oct-Dec for Apple). What will be interesting in this call is what they see moving forward for Q213, whether their cut back on parts order is true and if it is, if the motivitation is really due to sagging demand (I doubt it) or really just a precaution to not repeat the earning's miss of Q312 due to channel inventory not being depleted from Q212.
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Old Jan 17, 2013, 10:16 AM   #92
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Apple is sure to have had a blow out holiday quarter with the refreshed products lines. Preliminary numbers from Gartner are encouraging, showing a 5.4% US growth in a declining PC segment, even though IDC is claiming a slight decline (less than the overall market decline).

Of course, we're coming off the iPhone 5 launch quarter, so numbers there will be strong, no matter what people think.

I think there won't be major surprises as far as earnings go for Q1 '13 (the holiday quarter Oct-Dec for Apple). What will be interesting in this call is what they see moving forward for Q213, whether their cut back on parts order is true and if it is, if the motivitation is really due to sagging demand (I doubt it) or really just a precaution to not repeat the earning's miss of Q312 due to channel inventory not being depleted from Q212.
Good post, I think it's a given apple did amazing this past qtr and those who think they didn't are in some kind of denial but the main thing is looking forward. Obviously they're not going to disappear, but they definitely need to step up in 2013.

Either way I'm happy I just bought more stock. It's going up guaranteed!
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