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Apple's 2013 Product Roadmap Predictions: Multiple iPhones, Retina iPad Mini, All-Retina MacBook Pros
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Kuo is ALWAYS right. This is the only dude in the entire world, no exaggeration, who gets all the predictions right. it's so uncanny that either he works right next to Tim Cook, or is the secret president of Foxconn, or he's a genius. If I could reach him, I'd let him pick all of my stocks. What he has said, will in fact be the Apple roadmap for 2013.
it's a solid roadmap, but if iOS 7 is more of the same, there will be some trouble ahead b/c it's increasingly clear that Google can now design UI's as well as Apple can, and it is clear that Google has a massive lead in artificial intelligence. Google is going to pull off self-driving cars and other outlandish feats. That's innovation.
Apple is stuck innovating around the fringes, polishing this, tweaking that...Malcolm Gladwell had that column that pegs Jobs as more of a tweaker rather than a grand innovator, which is its own set of challenges. But the market rewards innovation, not tweakers. Compared to Google, Apple is a company that tweaks. You've got to make grand bets to play long-term, and it does not seem like Apple is doing so. 3 years from now, it may not even be fair to keep comparing Google to Apple, b/c Apple will still be doing their own thing, making nicely polished products, and make a new consumer electronics item or two...not a bad life. But they will not be changing the world like Google has with their products, whether hardware or software. No one said that a company has to change the world, but in my value system, companies that "just" make money are not the ones who get my admiration.
But, every dog has his day. No one can see a day when Google will fall in search, but mark my words, in 20 years they will not be the kings. I have no idea who will overtake them or how it will happen, but not one tech company has been on top for more than a generation and a half. If the old Microsoft fell, anything is possible.
it's a solid roadmap, but if iOS 7 is more of the same, there will be some trouble ahead b/c it's increasingly clear that Google can now design UI's as well as Apple can, and it is clear that Google has a massive lead in artificial intelligence. Google is going to pull off self-driving cars and other outlandish feats. That's innovation.
Apple is stuck innovating around the fringes, polishing this, tweaking that...Malcolm Gladwell had that column that pegs Jobs as more of a tweaker rather than a grand innovator, which is its own set of challenges. But the market rewards innovation, not tweakers. Compared to Google, Apple is a company that tweaks. You've got to make grand bets to play long-term, and it does not seem like Apple is doing so. 3 years from now, it may not even be fair to keep comparing Google to Apple, b/c Apple will still be doing their own thing, making nicely polished products, and make a new consumer electronics item or two...not a bad life. But they will not be changing the world like Google has with their products, whether hardware or software. No one said that a company has to change the world, but in my value system, companies that "just" make money are not the ones who get my admiration.
But, every dog has his day. No one can see a day when Google will fall in search, but mark my words, in 20 years they will not be the kings. I have no idea who will overtake them or how it will happen, but not one tech company has been on top for more than a generation and a half. If the old Microsoft fell, anything is possible.
Some predictions are bold, and some are very conservative.
A plastic iPhone 5? Well, that remains to be seen. The iPhone 5S prediction is pretty obvious, though.
The iPad will surely get some kind of redesign. As for the retina iPad mini, it may well happen, and that's one of the biggest bets of Kuo here.
As for the desktops, that's a very easy prediction to do. They've just been revamped.
The MacBook Pro with a retina display getting cheaper? May happen, but I don't know if it's likely. As for the discontinuation of the non-retina models, I guess that was obvious since last June.
The predictions on the MacBook Air are interesting. A retina version is a challenge. That means that Kuo predicts that the retina will not come in 2013 for the MacBook Air, but, if it comes, the prediction will not be far off either...
A plastic iPhone 5? Well, that remains to be seen. The iPhone 5S prediction is pretty obvious, though.
The iPad will surely get some kind of redesign. As for the retina iPad mini, it may well happen, and that's one of the biggest bets of Kuo here.
As for the desktops, that's a very easy prediction to do. They've just been revamped.
The MacBook Pro with a retina display getting cheaper? May happen, but I don't know if it's likely. As for the discontinuation of the non-retina models, I guess that was obvious since last June.
The predictions on the MacBook Air are interesting. A retina version is a challenge. That means that Kuo predicts that the retina will not come in 2013 for the MacBook Air, but, if it comes, the prediction will not be far off either...
This guy is full of crap, all these predictions are either extremely safe or bizarrely out of touch. Apple is not going to release a different product as an "iPhone 5." The only iPhone 5 they will ever sell will be the one they are selling now.
An iPhone 5S will likely have the same design, just like the 3GS and 4S matched their counterparts.
And why would they announce two new phones in the same quarter but not at the same time?
This isn't news. This isn't even educated guessing.
An iPhone 5S will likely have the same design, just like the 3GS and 4S matched their counterparts.
And why would they announce two new phones in the same quarter but not at the same time?
This isn't news. This isn't even educated guessing.
Let's face it, the Mac Pro is dead. Even the other Macs have been losing both thickness and features. USB 3 is really a substitution for USB 2, and a good one at that. Optical drives are gone, iMac and MBP FW connections are gone, the discrete GPU in the mini is gone. Upgradable RAM and storage are going the way of the Dodo.
It's all about a reduced feature set for the regular folks. Pro users, power users and people who just want a powerful, upgradable computer are going to have to head on over to HPland or Lenovoland to get a real computer. Macs are heading towards being prepackaged, throw away consumer devices.
Don't get me wrong, I love my Macs but for Apple building the kind of computers I like it's pretty much game over.
Kuo's been on point more than not. and not with just obvious stuff
https://www.macrumors.com/2012/06/0...ird-macbook-line-with-retina-display-at-wwdc/
https://www.macrumors.com/2012/04/23/apple-predicted-to-discontinue-17-inch-macbook-pro/
arn
Actually this is the only analyst that I semi trust. His predictions last year for Apple's laptop lineup were spot on. Any other analyst, I would tend to agree with you
So no new, innovative products down the pipeline? Then Apple is doomed. Innovation is wat thrives Apple. They need a new killer product before 2014. If not, then competition will copy their products to perfection or even come out with innovative stuff that Apple should have come with.
Another thing I don't understand is why they hang on to their iTunes paradigm. Already outlined on my website how this could be re-streamlined.
Another thing I don't understand is why they hang on to their iTunes paradigm. Already outlined on my website how this could be re-streamlined.
I agree that Apple needs to play catchup and release new stuff sooner and more often or they are going to be left behind.
Am I the only one who wants a 5 inch screen? If Apple doesn't release an iPhone with a big screen this year I may have to switch! I love the 5 and have had iPhones since the beginning, but look at the screens on the competition.
Am I the only one who wants a 5 inch screen? If Apple doesn't release an iPhone with a big screen this year I may have to switch! I love the 5 and have had iPhones since the beginning, but look at the screens on the competition.
How exactly would a redesigned rMBP look like? I assume that it won't be a slightly thicker polycarbonate enclosure... But maybe Haswell processors?
And a fingerprint sensor, which wouldn't have any use except for being the most expensive way possible to unlock your phone, is kinda, hmm, a fantasy of someone who bought stock of a fingerprint sensor company because it was cheap due to a lack of demand, and is now, after decades of this technology being around while remaining used scarcely at best, thrives to find a use case for those things?
And a fingerprint sensor, which wouldn't have any use except for being the most expensive way possible to unlock your phone, is kinda, hmm, a fantasy of someone who bought stock of a fingerprint sensor company because it was cheap due to a lack of demand, and is now, after decades of this technology being around while remaining used scarcely at best, thrives to find a use case for those things?
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Apple is an appliance company now. They're alright at designing phones, tablets, and very thin laptops. But their desktop line is hopeless.
My next laptop might be an Air. I will, however, definitely be building my own desktop when I feel like I need to upgrade.
Who's making a better all in one "desktop" than the iMac?
No offense but I don't agree that the new imacs have been well received at all. Theres a ton of complaints regarding them and many people think they made unworthy compromises in make the design thinner.
I think there will be a refresh of the iPad in March. The iPad 4 seemed to be very much a release to get lightening across all iOS devices, and so the iPad got a late 2012 update to fit in with the iPod and iPhone yearly refresh cycle.
Nothing about the iPad 4 release seemed to me to jump out as anything but iterative improvements, and as such I can't see any real reason that one couldn't expect a more major release early this year in line with previous iPad updates.
Nothing about the iPad 4 release seemed to me to jump out as anything but iterative improvements, and as such I can't see any real reason that one couldn't expect a more major release early this year in line with previous iPad updates.
How exactly would a redesigned rMBP look like? I assume that it won't be a slightly thicker polycarbonate enclosure... But maybe Haswell processors?
And a fingerprint sensor, which wouldn't have any use except for being the most expensive way possible to unlock you phone, is kinda, hmm, a fantasy of someone who bought stock of a fingerprint sensor company because it was cheap due to a lack of demand?
A fingerprint sensor makes sense as a way to secure transactions if the 5S gets Apple's NFC implementation. It would also make a handy, secure unlock mechanism, and it isn't particularly expensive to integrate into a phone. And if you're implying that Kuo owns stock in a fingerprint sensor company, you should know that Apple already bought a fingerprint sensor company several months ago. I think he's dead on.
Honest question, is any new killer tablet scheduled for release before Q3? Both Apple and Google have recently thrown their latest and greatest onto the market and I haven't noticed a revolution happening yet. I think Apple could pull off a quiet Q1/Q2 without losing much of anything (market share/profit/...). As much as I want the Retina iPad Mini NOW!!!, it would probably be wise for them to focus on killer software this year.
Does this imply China Mobile iPhone coming in July? I see a TD in the iPhone 5 redesign and iPhone 5S.
I also notice a 12% increase in the battery size. Maybe new battery chemistry? Maybe 12-14 hour battery. Also the A7 chip would dramatically boost battery life. This thing will sell like crazy.
Even with sales being great for this quarter, I see no reason they can't double/triple sales with a massive internal re-design. Many are opting for the iPhone 4/iPhone 4S because is cheaper ($0-99). I have a hard time believing millions won't buy the redesign. Those that would usually opt for the high end model won't settle for the cheaper version. Considering they have 300million iPhones in the wild, and will be adding a worker of 250million, I see no reason this wont sell at a rate unheard of. I also see no reason it won't sell like hot cakes in india. Conceivably, they will be reaching 1.5billion new subscribers. They could add 200-300million iPhones with the $350 model. Average cell phone price in these places is $100-200. It's not a stretch to say 200-300million people who would otherwise buy a knock off for $150 or an android for $200 would buy an iPhone for only $150 more.
This years sales are going to be ridiculous. 200% YOY growth is possible (assuming they can make enough to meet demand). If this is right Q3 and Q4 of this year will make 2012 look like a failure. Is $100 EPS in 2013 really possible?
I also notice a 12% increase in the battery size. Maybe new battery chemistry? Maybe 12-14 hour battery. Also the A7 chip would dramatically boost battery life. This thing will sell like crazy.
Even with sales being great for this quarter, I see no reason they can't double/triple sales with a massive internal re-design. Many are opting for the iPhone 4/iPhone 4S because is cheaper ($0-99). I have a hard time believing millions won't buy the redesign. Those that would usually opt for the high end model won't settle for the cheaper version. Considering they have 300million iPhones in the wild, and will be adding a worker of 250million, I see no reason this wont sell at a rate unheard of. I also see no reason it won't sell like hot cakes in india. Conceivably, they will be reaching 1.5billion new subscribers. They could add 200-300million iPhones with the $350 model. Average cell phone price in these places is $100-200. It's not a stretch to say 200-300million people who would otherwise buy a knock off for $150 or an android for $200 would buy an iPhone for only $150 more.
This years sales are going to be ridiculous. 200% YOY growth is possible (assuming they can make enough to meet demand). If this is right Q3 and Q4 of this year will make 2012 look like a failure. Is $100 EPS in 2013 really possible?
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The HP Z1 (easy to upgrade AIO), HP SpectreONE and Dell XPS One 27, don't look too shabby. You could probably make a Hackintosh out of them, although since they're in the same price range as the iMac I'm not sure why you would.
This guy knows what he's talking about. I'm excited for a cheaper rMBP, though it sounds like we might be waiting quite a while.
By the way, these forums should filter out the word "innovation" - it's used way, way too often in Apple forums and it's meaningless the way people use it.
By the way, these forums should filter out the word "innovation" - it's used way, way too often in Apple forums and it's meaningless the way people use it.