iPhone 5 Cutbacks Simply Due to Initial Shipment Rate Being Too Large to Maintain?

[jclardy]

Originally Posted by kjs862

I don't think so. Sounds off with supply chain guru Cook in the driver seat.

Does it though? Maybe he purchased the huge order to get lower prices. Now they cut it in half since they have all the devices they need.

Lower per-device cost + meeting holiday demand sounds like a good plan to me.

[darkplanets]

We don't know the reasons, and probably won't. Whether it's this or inaccuracies in use for displays, or other factors, it was wholly irresponsible for media outlets (even Forbes and WSJ) to publish the drivel with the notion of causality without fact checking. Same goes for MR. Shame on you for posting drivel in the name of clicks without substantiating if it is a possibility. Unless the causality is verified, don't display it as fact.

What is apparent, and was from the start, was that these media outlets were probably unwittingly playing into someone's scheme to short the stock. This hasn't been the first time it's happened to Apple, and is pretty common with most high-value stocks.

[firewood]

Apple needed to order components ahead and produce iPhones and iPod Touches faster than they could sell them in order to stock up inventory for the holiday buying rush. Now that the holiday rush is over, sales may still be decent, but Apple no longer needs to build inventory ahead of a new rush. Sales normally taper for all vendors after the holidays. Joe consumer is spent out and looking at some just arriving scary credit card bills (but rinse-and-repeat next year).

However the stock price swings are likely mostly due to market manipulation combined with investor psychosis.

[OldSchoolMacGuy]

Originally Posted by darkplanets

We don't know the reasons, and probably won't. Whether it's this or inaccuracies in use for displays, or other factors, it was wholly irresponsible for media outlets (even Forbes and WSJ) to publish the drivel with the notion of causality without fact checking. Same goes for MR. Shame on you for posting drivel in the name of clicks without substantiating if it is a possibility. Unless the causality is verified, don't display it as fact.

What is apparent, and was from the start, was that these media outlets were probably unwittingly playing into someone's scheme to short the stock. This hasn't been the first time it's happened to Apple, and is pretty common with most high-value stocks.

Fact checking? HA! The news media does nothing of the sort these days. There is no accountability and the whole idea is to be the first to break the story.

Look at Sandy Hook. One media outlet says the shooter is the real shooter's brother. Everyone else reports it too without bothering to check a thing. Facebook pages go up calling for the kid's death. He gets death threats and hundreds of messages from people that all believe he's the killer. Hours later, the media finds out they're wrong when the police correct them. Anyone issue an apology? Hell no. They aren't accountable for their actions.

[SockRolid]

Originally Posted by rmwebs

[...] and the other big players such as HTC have been releasing some pretty popular products.

Popular? Compared to what, exactly? Are you talking about HTC smartphones?
HTC's Q3 2012 smartphone shipments were down more than 42% from Q3 2011.

From The Next Web:

Q3 research figures from IDC give HTC a 4 percent share of quarterly shipments with 7.3 million smartphone units shipped. That’s a 42.5 percent drop on the 12.7 million devices a year previous, when it held a 10.3 percent share of overall shipments.

Full story: http://thenextweb.com/asia/2012/10/2...2012-forecast/

Oh, and HTC's overall income dropped 79% year-over-year in Q3 2012.

From Android Community:

It is quite easy to see where this substantial drop is a serious problem for HTC. Even though HTC predicted decreased numbers, seeing them finalized on paper is a scary thing.

Full Story: http://androidcommunity.com/htc-q3-i...year-20121008/

[Peace]

Originally Posted by r2shyyou

Here's a good piece to consider:

Via Forbes: Why The WSJ Got The 'iPhone Demand Is Crashing' Story All Wrong

And it's perpetuated by bloggers that want to drive the price of Apple down in order to make money on the stock's rise due to stories like this.

Why isn't this story front page ?

[TallManNY]

Originally Posted by nep61

While I agree with nearly everything you mention-----Start with drastically new features. You need to take a risk like Microsoft did with Windows 8.--- as far as I'm concerned, Windows 8 has been a bit of a flop... unless I've been looking in the wrong places for their sales numbers and / or positive reviews....

And didn't both Verizon and AT&T say that iPhone 5 sales were off the charts when first released

Apple can't really take those types of risks with the iPhone. To even hope to meet initial launch demands, they have to order 30 million or more iPhones. They can't both order that amount and take a risk in the same product. To do so would be to bet the company if the next iPhone didn't sell.

Samsung gets to make a million of sixteen different form factors and test to see if it will sell. They didn't have to make 30 million Notes and then hope there was a market. So Samsung, while large, is actually more nimble.

If Apple wants to get nimble like that, they are going to have to increase their product lines.

[r2shyyou]

Originally Posted by Peace

And it's perpetuated by bloggers that want to drive the price of Apple down in order to make money on the stock's rise due to stories like this.

Why isn't this story front page ?

I suppose it's because it hasn't been proven. But I agree.

EDIT: Hmm...

So here is our logic to being patient. It is threefold:

1. Apple had an enormous amount of call options speculation related to its Summer surge
2. A huge share of this was calls with a strike of around the current price of $550 and higher that expire January 19 2013
3. The institutional money managers that wrote those call options and bought common stock to cover will make a lot of money if a) those options expire worthless, and then b) Apple runs after that expiration date

What kind of money are we talking? Let's use the more than 60,000 calls with a $600 strike price. If Apple goes to $700 before January 19, then those options have an intrinsic value of:

60,000 (call options) X 100 (shares per option) X $100 (intrinsic value per share) = $600,000,000

Six hundred million dollars not in the institutional call writers' pockets. Whereas, if Apple stays put, then runs to $700 after the expiration date, the call writers get the capital gain from the common stock they covered with, AND the entire amount for which they sold the option. And this is only one strike price we calculated - together this is billions of dollars for a two month delay in an Apple surge.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1002...-on-january-18

[KdParker]

Originally Posted by sulpfiction

Forget the past. Apple is going in a whole new direction in the post-jobs era. More risks will be taken. Some will work, others won't. But be prepared to be surprised more then ever before.

Lets hope so, I want the phone of the future now. (at least sometime within the next year)

[needfx]

Originally Posted by ThatsMeRight

Come on, Apple. Take some risks. Up the game.

great lump of text, nice rhythm & pace, valid points, one objection.

they took risks on the software side with maps & passbook. they flopped.

[baryon]

I would be surprised if the iPhone 5 didn't sell well enough, I just see so many people with them in their hands on the street.

I think that it's normal that newer iPhones don't have as many revolutionary features as older ones: it was the same with computers and operating systems. You always first think of the bigger, more obvious things, and then you refine them. You can't keep finding bigger, obvious things all the time, since there aren't that many.

I think that a smartphone today does pretty much everything you need, and that it needs to be made more portable, longer-lasting and higher quality. But other than that, feature-wise, there's not much that's really needed (such as multi tasking, a camera, GPS, etc…).

[Rogifan]

CNBC had an article on their site asking if there's anyone left to buy iPhones. The premise is the smartphone market is becoming saturated. But why just ask this question of Apple? If the smartphone market is saturated then wouldn't that impact Samsung's Galaxy line of phones too? And other higher end phones? Samsung has stated that their surge in profits is due in large part to sales of Galaxy phones. Why does the market saturation concern only seem to center around Apple?

[FireFish]

[iMikeT]

I was thinking something along the lines of this article that the cutbacks were due to either Apple all ready meeting a certain level of demand or just ordering too much to begin with.

Originally Posted by OldSchoolMacGuy

No one bothered looking at the numbers here. The numbers in the initial report didn't add up at all. Forget reading into it though, just repost it on Macrumors.

No one also bothered to realize that the report was talking about the screens used which are also used in iPod Touchs and could be related to a cut back of those rather than iPhones.

Exactly. It's the sad state of journalism in the modern day. Put out an eye catching headline that gets clicks instead of reporting the facts. What's worse is something like this gives the Apple haters more fuel for their hate.

Originally Posted by gatearray

Ask MS how taking that "risk" is working out for them! Throwing things overboard and starting with a fresh design is what you do when you're desperate, sitting on a failing product line and/or strategy, and generally behind the eight ball, present-day RIM is another example.

Apple sees tremendous growth every quarter, with each new iPhone iteration has sold more units that the previous gens combined. I don't think they'll be adopting your proposed strategy anytime soon.



Again, your specious reasoning is showing!

You say they weren't willing to "give it to us", and even suggest that it turned out to be a "good idea" in the end, as if those mean old jerks at Apple got it wrong.

I say that until iOS4 and the A4 chip, Apple couldn't achieve the desired level of user experience, and only added this functionality in iOS 4 when it was ready for Primetime, as they say.

Honestly, which explanation is more plausible?

I agree with everything you said. And as I usually say, it's easy to criticize something in hindsight long AFTER a product has been on the market and after the implementations are mainstream and seem "obvious". Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending Apple as I am equally critical of them as I am of Microsoft or Google, but I find Apple to be the low-hanging fruit that people pick (yes every pun intended) simply because they came out with products that standardized the industry and the competition simply copies and builds on.

I think the people who make the most criticism do so from their armchair and are merely consumers with very narrow minds and fail to see the much larger picture. It's easy to criticize the work of others, how about these critics put their ideas out there for a change?

[firewood]

Question: If big institutional investors who wrote all those soon-expiring call options are trying to manipulate the AAPL price down to render those options worthless, why aren't the investors who bought all those options trying to drive the price up and thus profit?

[swagi]

Originally Posted by firewood

Question: If big institutional investors who wrote all those soon-expiring call options are trying to manipulate the AAPL price down to render those options worthless, why aren't the investors who bought all those options trying to drive the price up and thus profit?

Because there are thousands of small investors that tried to make a fast buck on the "the only way is up"-talk.

That's why people like me prefer the term "bubble" for AAPL. Look at the environment, look at the competition - iPhones won't perform bad in the future as they are not bad phones.

But they won't dominate the market, as the competitors are outpacing them in innovation. Next year this time we'll be talking octo-core and FullHD displays for the sheet fanatics - you know, those uninformed guys shelling out the bucks for beige boxes about a decade ago. Not that I'd prefer a phone over sheet talk - I prefer my Galaxy for giving me freedom to use services at will and not being 'locked'. Is there anything like AirDroid on iOS?

[nep61]

Originally Posted by Rogifan

CNBC had an article on their site asking if there's anyone left to buy iPhones. The premise is the smartphone market is becoming saturated. But why just ask this question of Apple? If the smartphone market is saturated then wouldn't that impact Samsung's Galaxy line of phones too? And other higher end phones? Samsung has stated that their surge in profits is due in large part to sales of Galaxy phones. Why does the market saturation concern only seem to center around Apple?

Because Apple puts out 1 phone at a time.... Samsung probably has over 15 on the market at any one time.... The refresh rate on new products is probably something like every 3 or 4 weeks. Just a guess....
The people who don't want a smartphone or who are intimidated by one have a choice. That choice takes Apple out of the equation. The choice, is a Samsung of some sort....

Then you have the Mac haters... Who think Apple is a mind controlling BIG BROTHER type company.... Maybe, but I'll buy the 5S when it arrives.

[darkplanets]

Originally Posted by r2shyyou

I suppose it's because it hasn't been proven. But I agree.

EDIT: Hmm...

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1002...-on-january-18

As I said before, shorting the stock.

All part of the game.

The thing that concerns me was how no one even questioned the motives when the original story broke. The sliding stock price was a red flag.

[Glideslope]

Originally Posted by darkplanets

As I said before, shorting the stock.

All part of the game.

The thing that concerns me was how no one even questioned the motives when the original story broke. The sliding stock price was a red flag.

Yup.

Buy now. The rise has started. +20 today.
It's going to go up fast on the 23rd.

[somethingelsefl]

Originally Posted by OldSchoolMacGuy

Look at Sandy Hook. One media outlet says the shooter is the real shooter's brother. Everyone else reports it too without bothering to check a thing. Facebook pages go up calling for the kid's death. He gets death threats and hundreds of messages from people that all believe he's the killer. Hours later, the media finds out they're wrong when the police correct them. Anyone issue an apology? Hell no. They aren't accountable for their actions.

This is way off-topic and unrelated to the post. You should really start a separate thread to talk about stuff like this.

----------

Originally Posted by gatearray

Ask MS how taking that "risk" is working out for them! Throwing things overboard and starting with a fresh design is what you do when you're desperate, sitting on a failing product line and/or strategy, and generally behind the eight ball, present-day RIM is another example.

Well said. There are a lot of people in here that are applying 20/20 hindsight to future events and don't have a realistic of view of Apple's implementation.

[Ryth]

Originally Posted by ThatsMeRight

Apple needs to take risks. Give iOS a redesign so it looks drastically different, but - hopefully - still works quite the same. Add drasticly better internals: push camera technology. Push battery technology. Push CPU and GPU technology. And more importantly: try out new technologies (like Senseg's tactile feedback technology).

Come on, Apple. Take some risks. Up the game.

Um...I guess you missed that whole Jony Ive thing and how he's taking over as head of Human Interface at Apple.

----------

Originally Posted by swagi

But they won't dominate the market, as the competitors are outpacing them in innovation.

Still waiting to see this 'innovation' everyone is talking about that the competitors are outpacing them on.

Fist bumping two phones together is not innovation. Nor is making commercials that show a guy getting injected by 'droid' blood innovation.

Notice how this 'innovation' from the competition never really shows...what's the word I'm looking for...oh yah...innovation.

Doesn't matter if they have better specs. Specs don't mean anything when the software is crap and is bloated and slow.

----------

Originally Posted by nep61

While I agree with nearly everything you mention-----Start with drastically new features. You need to take a risk like Microsoft did with Windows 8.--- as far as I'm concerned, Windows 8 has been a bit of a flop... unless I've been looking in the wrong places for their sales numbers and / or positive reviews....

Windows 8 and Windows Phone are great. The issue is again, the education of the user for both of these just isn't there.

[swagi]

Originally Posted by Ryth

Still waiting to see this 'innovation' everyone is talking about that the competitors are outpacing them on.

Ever checked out GoogleNow? - Yeah, thought so.

Ignorance is a bliss...

[SILen(e]

Originally Posted by ThatsMeRight

The iPhone 5 isn't a bad phone. In fact, it's a really good phone. When you asked me in 2010 which phone was the best smartphone? iPhone 4. It had hardware similar or better than that of top competitors and it had just received a huge software upgrade (iOS 4, which brought stuff like multitasking).

Last year, I'd probably still say the iPhone 4S. While Android (and Windows Phone) was gaining terrain, the iPhone 4S still had the best over-all package.

This year, I'd say you can't go wrong with any high-end smartphone: Nokia Lumia 920, HTC One X, Samsung Galaxy S III, iPhone 5. Why? Because of the software: Android has made huge jumps compared to iOS - and Microsoft has brought a refreshing mobile OS to the market.

But this is nothing that Apple could change. The first generations of the iPhone have been so much better than the competition, because the competition sucked! Android was ugly and half-baked before Android 4.0 and 4.1, they had some features that every Android fanboy used as a club to bash Apple with, but many other features were not very good implemented (Copy&Paste before they let them inspire^^ by the implementation of that feature in iOS).

Apple can't just go and build an Octacore iPhone and let it run the real OS X to have superior hardware and software in the iPhone 6, they are bound by the same limitations that every other company is bound by - physics, economics etc...

Completely revamping iOS would alienate the whole customerbase they have aquired with the iPhone, just like everybody hates Windows 8 because it is so un-Windows7-y.

And look what is coming this year!
Android is getting more refined and more refined, basically, by the day. iOS 7 needs to be big. It needs to change, even if it is only for change's sake. People like new, fresh, shiny things. Apple has been playing it safe with iOS 5 and iOS 6.

Apple added a cloud-storage solution that is unrivalled in its ease of use, a personal assistant that is almost unrivalled in its usefullness, because Google Now runs on only 10% of all Android devices. And iOS 6 also has some great features that are often overlooked when bashing Mapgate.

And look what is coming on the hardware side: quad-core Cortex A15 CPUs and even more powerful GPUs. Bigger batteries which will probably give us much better battery life. Drastically improved cameras (Nokia PureView, anyone?).

So, how many games on Android look better than the best iPhone games? All that power in those Android devices isn't used, because no developer wants to limit their possible customerbase to the few guys who bought device X. The iPhone 5 has one of the fastest CPUs and its GPU is also only rivalled by the Adreno 320. The bigger batteries in Android devices are used to power the bigger screen, improved battery life is something you only get when you use one of these devices to phone someone. Actually, the iPhone 5 has one of the longest battery lifes of recent smartphones, easily beating the Galaxy S 3.

Again: Apple has been playing it safe. They change things, but not too much. iOS 6 is really, really similar to iOS 5. And iOS 5 is quite similar to iOS 4. And being careful with changing things is okay, but once in a while you need to take a risk: you need to throw things overboard and start with a fresh design. Start with drastically new features. You need to take a risk like Microsoft did with Windows 8.

And Windows 8 is such an extraordinary success that... oh, it isn't...

If you change too much stuff, people will not buy it. They will still go to McDonald's even if there's another fast food restaurant next to it - because they know what to expect at McDonald's and thats something people like.

Same on the hardware side: Apple is playing it safe. They gave the iPhone 5 a bigger display: big enough to attract users who want a bigger display, but small enough to make sure they won't lose any customers who preferred the 3.5" display.

Apple in 2008/2009/2010 would have taken more risks. More drastic changes to iOS. Back in 2010, they gave us multitasking while - as it is reported - they weren't willing to give it to us at first. It would make things too complicated. Looking back, giving us multitasking was a great idea because there are now so many great new apps which make great use of it (like Spotify).

Before iOS 4, everybody was laughing at Apple because iOS lacked multitasking, so they HAD to implement it. Adding it wasn't a risk, it was a necessity.

Back in 2008, Apple gave us the App Store. According to the news articles I read, Apple - at the time - wasn't really willing to do this (they were 'all-in' on web apps) but if we look back this was a great choice. They took the risk and it paid off.

And without an App Store, the usefullness of the iPhone was lacking, because web apps were just not that great. The App Store had to be added!

In 2010 they gave us a 960 x 640 3.5" display. 326 pixels per inch. Such a high pixel density: unheard of.

Because the iPhone 3GS has been laughed at due to the lower resolution display - the new display had to be added, it wasn't a risk. And it is something that can't be achieved another time for quite a while, because there are no 652 dpi displays available at the moment and using the ~ 440 dpi display that will be used in the 2013 Android devices would require lots of changes to iOS and scaling the apps.

Apple needs to take risks. Give iOS a redesign so it looks drastically different, but - hopefully - still works quite the same. Add drasticly better internals: push camera technology. Push battery technology. Push CPU and GPU technology. And more importantly: try out new technologies (like Senseg's tactile feedback technology).

They are pushing CPU and GPU technology, they got one of the best smartphone cameras on the market, only rivalled by "let's shoot our PureView commercials with a DSLR" Nokia, you can't push battery technology, because you can't just invent a device that teleports eletrons directly from the powerplant to the battery of a smartphone - the laws of physics exist and even Apple has to play by their rules.

Come on, Apple. Take some risks. Up the game.

My commentary in red.

Originally Posted by rmwebs

Samsung is the best thing that could have happened to the iPhone and Apple. It's forcing them to develop the iPhone instead of doing a slow release cycle (ala iPod). Without Samsung pushing like hell, the iPhone would not be what it is today.

We got the iPhone 3G without Android even existing, we got the iPhone 3GS with only the Google G1 (and some other unimportant devices) existing and when the iPhone 4 was released the only important device for Android was the Motorola Droid (which was only available in the US and arrived in the EU much later). HTC Desire, the first truly great Android device and the Galaxy S have been just available for a few months (the SGS only a few weeks!), so the iPhone 4 has been developed without their influence.

And there have been lots of improvements from the iPhone 2G to the iPhone 4.

Originally Posted by swagi

I prefer my Galaxy for giving me freedom to use services at will and not being 'locked'. Is there anything like AirDroid on iOS?

Wireless File Transfer: iTunes
Desktop SMS Management: Messages for OS X
Organize music, photos, videos etc.. : iTunes + Photostream

Originally Posted by swagi

Ever checked out GoogleNow? - Yeah, thought so.

Ignorance is a bliss...

Great, so 10% of all Android users will be able to use it, because it requires Android 4.1 or higher.


Innovation is not only creating something new but also bringing this new feature to the masses!

This is something where Apple excels!

By this moment, there should be about a hundred million devices that feature Siri out there, i'd bet the number is even higher (iPhone 4S, iPad 3, iPhone 5, iPad Mini, iPad 4 - i'd say 150 million devices)

[loybond]

I think sales are slowing down. Seeing price cuts for the first time has got to mean something... Best Buy (Canada) now has the 32GB iPhone 5 for $199.

[ABG]

Originally Posted by SILen(e

Great, so 10% of all Android users will be able to use it, because it requires Android 4.1 or higher.


Innovation is not only creating something new but also bringing this new feature to the masses!

This is something where Apple excels!

By this moment, there should be about a hundred million devices that feature Siri out there, i'd bet the number is even higher (iPhone 4S, iPad 3, iPhone 5, iPad Mini, iPad 4 - i'd say 150 million devices)

When Siri was launched and only worked on the 4S and not the 12 month old iPhone 4 how is that different from your point about new GoogleNow only working on Android 4.1 and higher?

Also - I assume Siri is awesome in the US but in the UK (and I'm guessing the rest of the world) it both sucks and blows. So your 150 million devices point isn't really valid as Siri's usefulness varies in different countries. IMO.