Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q1 2013 Earnings Call

MacRumors · Jan 23, 2013, 12:46 PM

Philip Elmer-Dewitt has assembled his quarterly list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 67 analysts: 28 "independent" and 39 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations.

As usual, the independents are much more bullish than the institutional analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $15.11 on revenue of $58.84 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $13.45 on $54.74 billion in revenue. Across all analysts, the median expectation is for earnings of $14.20 on $55.96 billion in revenue, a year-over-year increase of 10% and 30% respectively. 2011's holiday quarter was the strongest in the company's history.

Last quarter the company earned $8.2 billion in profit on revenue of $36 billion. For this quarter, Apple issued guidance of $52 billion in revenue with profits of $11.75 per share. The company has, in the past, exceeded its guidance by a significant margin.

Apple will announce its earnings for the first fiscal quarter of 2013 (fourth calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings.

Article Link: Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q1 2013 Earnings Call

nick_elt · Jan 23, 2013, 12:49 PM

Looks pretty good to me, but im sure we will here that apple is doomed soon.

Peace · Jan 23, 2013, 12:49 PM

Hold on to your hats kids. This is going to be a very important earnings report.

nick_elt · Jan 23, 2013, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peace

Hold on to your hats kids. This is going to be a very important earnings report.

The way the stock has been going yes it is. Maybe good time to buy? ... Or sell?

----------

Looking at that graph I cant understand the stocks actually. Maybe i never will.

basesloaded190 · Jan 23, 2013, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nick_elt

The way the stock has been going yes it is. Maybe good time to buy? ... Or sell?

----------

Looking at that graph I cant understand the stocks actually. Maybe i never will.

That graph really has nothing to do with the stock, just Apples earnings

alfistas · Jan 23, 2013, 12:58 PM

This might be interesting...

arbitter · Jan 23, 2013, 12:59 PM

That's one sick graph. Even with all the bad news surrounding Apple the last couple of months, they expect it to be so high. Let's hope they make it, or the news is going to get even worse.

keysofanxiety · Jan 23, 2013, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacRumors

As usual, the independents are much more bullish than the institutional analysts.

Heh, when I skim-read this article, that looked like you'd written 'bulls**t'.

Oh, wait … independent analysts? I guess I'm right whichever way I read it!

KnightWRX · Jan 23, 2013, 01:02 PM

You can clearly see on that graph why Q3 '12 was considered a miss. It was really the first time in quite a while that Apple came so close to their own guidance and one of the only times "Pro Analysts" were so over the actual earnings.

But for this quarter, Q1 '13 ? Forget it, holidays/iPhone 5 launch/iPad Mini ramp up ? It's going to be a good one for Apple no doubt.

ToomeyND · 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nick_elt

Looking at that graph I cant understand the stocks actually. Maybe i never will.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_Scheme

This should help.

KnightWRX · Jan 23, 2013, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arbitter

That's one sick graph. Even with all the bad news surrounding Apple the last couple of months, they expect it to be so high. Let's hope they make it, or the news is going to get even worse.

Analysts base themselves on guidances by Apple. Apple set the bar high (52 bn$ revenues), and I guess some people are nervous since that sounds like quite the boast.

But seeing how this quarter was a whopper for them for all the reasons I listed above, I'm not afraid they'll exceed it.

Fruit Cake · Jan 23, 2013, 01:04 PM

I'm sure they'll do fine.

xxgilxx · Jan 23, 2013, 01:04 PM

I'm bullish on APPL

basesloaded190 · Jan 23, 2013, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToomeyND

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_Scheme

This should help.

Yeah, the stock market is a ponzi scheme

Rocketman · Jan 23, 2013, 01:09 PM

In '11 revenues were a bit over $25B. In '12 revenues were bit over $45B. Based on this vastly over simplified trend it may be a bit over $65B this quarter. Since Apple traditionally beats even the most optimistic estimates this quarter, it is not out of bounds to happen. This ought to add $13-15B to cash.

ToomeyND · Jan 23, 2013, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basesloaded190

Yeah, the stock market is a ponzi scheme

Can everyone get their money out? Or if people stop putting more cash in, do you expect them to walk to apple headquarters and collect a piece of the building?

iMagical · Jan 23, 2013, 01:10 PM

This is great to see for

but the Stock Market has nothing to do with a company's performance in well over a decade.

basesloaded190 · Jan 23, 2013, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToomeyND

Can everyone get their money out? Or if people stop putting more cash in, do you expect them to walk to apple headquarters and collect a piece of the building?

I'm not sure which you don't understand the most, a Ponzi Scheme or how stocks work.

liven2 · Jan 23, 2013, 01:18 PM

I am prepared to see the stock tumble like a rock no matter what Apple post because the trend in the market is to find anything negative about Apple and focus on that.

Even if numbers are stellar guidance for next quarter will be low and the market will focus on that and the stock will drop like a rock. If not right away over the next week or so after a possible initial rise on a great (not good) earnings report. If the earning report is on target or under... Then expect a huge massive drop in after hours... either way the momentum of the market is not favorable and Apple will drop.

The only way they can sustain upward momentum right now is an out of the world quarter, and heavenly guidance for next quarter. Without these the market will lose faith... They need to see a new product to get inspired.

Mike Valmike · Jan 23, 2013, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iMagical

This is great to see for

but the Stock Market has nothing to do with a company's performance in well over a decade.

True enough. It's like the difference between sports rooting and sports gambling. The Boston Fan is elated that the Celtics won in overtime. The Boston Gambler is furious that they didn't cover the spread.

gnasher729 · Jan 23, 2013, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxgilxx

I'm bullish on APPL

I'm not. APPL went out of business a few years ago. On the other hand, AAPL should be doing quite well.

Bonte · Jan 23, 2013, 01:28 PM

I predict $65 billion in revenue, i have a feeling the quarter wasn't bad at all. But i could be wrong like the previous 2 quarters.

In the future there's probably a TV but after that, home automation?

lildimsum7 · Jan 23, 2013, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxgilxx

I'm bullish on APPL

Appell Pete Corp? I'm more bullish on that than AAPL

TheHateMachine · Jan 23, 2013, 01:33 PM

Two big things to be mindful of is how much of the device pie the lower priced 4/4S and the Mini took from their larger and higher end couter parts and how this might have affected margins as a whole. I await the results today to see how my options will fare... and stock in general.

Small White Car · Jan 23, 2013, 01:37 PM

It looks like the independent analysts got cocky after 2011 and didn't know when to scale back.

I remember how their unbridled enthusiasm kept giving them 'wins' over the pros quarter after quarter, but now looking at this graph I can see that they weren't really smarter, just more optimistic. In 2011 that worked for them. In 2012 it didn't.

Looks like neither side is really better at predicting the future than the other. Imagine that.

Jan 23, 2013, 12:46 PM	#1
MacRumors macrumors bot Join Date: Apr 2001	Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q1 2013 Earnings Call Philip Elmer-Dewitt has assembled his quarterly list of analyst predictions ahead of Apple's earnings report this afternoon. The list includes estimates from 67 analysts: 28 "independent" and 39 "institutional" who work for large investment houses or research organizations. As usual, the independents are much more bullish than the institutional analysts. The independent consensus expects earnings per share (EPS) of $15.11 on revenue of $58.84 billion. The institutional consensus is EPS of $13.45 on $54.74 billion in revenue. Across all analysts, the median expectation is for earnings of $14.20 on $55.96 billion in revenue, a year-over-year increase of 10% and 30% respectively. 2011's holiday quarter was the strongest in the company's history. Last quarter the company earned $8.2 billion in profit on revenue of $36 billion. For this quarter, Apple issued guidance of $52 billion in revenue with profits of $11.75 per share. The company has, in the past, exceeded its guidance by a significant margin. Apple will announce its earnings for the first fiscal quarter of 2013 (fourth calendar quarter of 2012) and host a conference call regarding the release this afternoon at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific. The earnings release itself typically comes in around 4:30 PM Eastern. MacRumors will have live coverage of the proceedings. Article Link: Roundup of Analyst Expectations Ahead of Q1 2013 Earnings Call
	1

Jan 23, 2013, 12:49 PM	#2
nick_elt macrumors 65816 Join Date: Oct 2011	Looks pretty good to me, but im sure we will here that apple is doomed soon. __________________ White Macbook, 2012 Macbook air 13", titanium grey galaxy note 2, ipad 3rd gen, apple tv 3
	6

Jan 23, 2013, 01:02 PM	#9
KnightWRX macrumors Pentium Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Quebec, Canada	You can clearly see on that graph why Q3 '12 was considered a miss. It was really the first time in quite a while that Apple came so close to their own guidance and one of the only times "Pro Analysts" were so over the actual earnings. But for this quarter, Q1 '13 ? Forget it, holidays/iPhone 5 launch/iPad Mini ramp up ? It's going to be a good one for Apple no doubt. __________________ "What you leave behind is not what is engraved in stone monuments, but what is woven into the lives of others." -- Pericles
	2

Jan 23, 2013, 01:09 PM	#15
Rocketman macrumors 601 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Claremont, CA	In '11 revenues were a bit over $25B. In '12 revenues were bit over $45B. Based on this vastly over simplified trend it may be a bit over $65B this quarter. Since Apple traditionally beats even the most optimistic estimates this quarter, it is not out of bounds to happen. This ought to add $13-15B to cash. __________________ Think Different-ly! The President campaigned against Congress. D Sen is led by D Sen ML Reid and D VP and Sen Pres Biden, under orders of D Pres Obama. http://www.gop.gov/indepth/jobs/tracker
	0

Jan 23, 2013, 01:18 PM	#19
liven2 macrumors regular Join Date: Jan 2002	Stock will fall... I am prepared to see the stock tumble like a rock no matter what Apple post because the trend in the market is to find anything negative about Apple and focus on that. Even if numbers are stellar guidance for next quarter will be low and the market will focus on that and the stock will drop like a rock. If not right away over the next week or so after a possible initial rise on a great (not good) earnings report. If the earning report is on target or under... Then expect a huge massive drop in after hours... either way the momentum of the market is not favorable and Apple will drop. The only way they can sustain upward momentum right now is an out of the world quarter, and heavenly guidance for next quarter. Without these the market will lose faith... They need to see a new product to get inspired. __________________ Crime Scene to Court Room http://www.evidenceonq.com/
	3

Jan 23, 2013, 12:49 PM	#3
Peace macrumors P6 Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Space--The ONLY Frontier	Hold on to your hats kids. This is going to be a very important earnings report.
	3

Jan 23, 2013, 12:58 PM	#6
alfistas Banned Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: Helios Prime	This might be interesting...
	1

Jan 23, 2013, 12:59 PM	#7
arbitter macrumors member Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Belgium	That's one sick graph. Even with all the bad news surrounding Apple the last couple of months, they expect it to be so high. Let's hope they make it, or the news is going to get even worse.
	1

Jan 23, 2013, 01:04 PM	#12
Fruit Cake macrumors 6502a Join Date: Mar 2012	I'm sure they'll do fine.
	1

Jan 23, 2013, 01:04 PM	#13
xxgilxx macrumors regular Join Date: Jul 2010	I'm bullish on APPL
	1

Jan 23, 2013, 01:10 PM	#17
iMagical macrumors newbie Join Date: Jan 2013	This is great to see for but the Stock Market has nothing to do with a company's performance in well over a decade.
	0

Jan 23, 2013, 01:28 PM	#22
Bonte macrumors 6502a Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Bruges, Belgium	I predict $65 billion in revenue, i have a feeling the quarter wasn't bad at all. But i could be wrong like the previous 2 quarters. In the future there's probably a TV but after that, home automation? __________________ Canterbury Tales comic
	0

Jan 23, 2013, 01:33 PM	#24
TheHateMachine macrumors 6502 Join Date: Sep 2012	Two big things to be mindful of is how much of the device pie the lower priced 4/4S and the Mini took from their larger and higher end couter parts and how this might have affected margins as a whole. I await the results today to see how my options will fare... and stock in general. __________________ Computer - Intel/Nvidia with Win8 Pro \| HP Elite 8300 USDT with CentOS 5.2 Mobile - Galaxy Note 2 16GB \| Galaxy S3 16GB Gadget - Surface RT 32GB \| Nexus 10 16GB \| iPad 4 16GB \| iPod Touch 3G 16GB
	0

Jan 23, 2013, 01:37 PM	#25
Small White Car macrumors G3 Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Washington DC	It looks like the independent analysts got cocky after 2011 and didn't know when to scale back. I remember how their unbridled enthusiasm kept giving them 'wins' over the pros quarter after quarter, but now looking at this graph I can see that they weren't really smarter, just more optimistic. In 2011 that worked for them. In 2012 it didn't. Looks like neither side is really better at predicting the future than the other. Imagine that.
	2

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