'Post-PC Era' Predicted By Steve Jobs Taking Hold as Samsung Tops Apple in Connected Device Market

[ericinboston]

Originally Posted by jamojamo

I am old enough to remember when the Mainframe crowd and the VAX crowd used to say the same thing. While they still exist in the background, I don't think anyone denies those first PC's started the process. Today's tablets are the start whether people want to believe it or not.

I remember the VAX/VMS too. But there is a difference here...back in 1980 (or so) until 1993, not many people actually owned a personal computer (especially compared to today). Since 2001-ish (when PCs first sold for under the $1000 mark), everyone and their grandmother has one...most homes have more than 1....some users even have multiple computers.

Tablets right now are a great start...nobody denies that they have opened the doors for a new market. I really think of tablets as sub-par to PCs simply because of tablets' inherent nature of 1)small screens, 2)touchscreen, 3)low CPU power, 4)poor virtual keyboard for typing anything longer than 3 sentences.

Now...trying to convert hundreds of millions of people to tablets or handheld is not going to happen in 5, 10, or even 15 years. There are so many uses for a PC...and so many users out there that actually NEED to use something better/traditional than a tablet...whether for work or home. Add in that a tablet still costs the same or more for a nice desktop or fair Windows laptop (3 years after the intro of the iPad I will add) and you've got multiple barriers to break.

The current tablet and handheld devices will definitely expand in their functionality...but you've still got a lot of people that would feel that many features are still missing compared to a full-fledged pc (again, mice, keyboards, large monitors, storage, universal connections, open-ness)...not to mention the iPad STILL requires iTunes that, ahem, runs on a PC.

Just a guess, but looking at history of things and the uptake of the smartphones and tablets, I doubt it will take 20 years.

I disagree...if you're talking about REPLACING a PC with a tablet, 20 years will be the time. There is just soooo much lacking in a tablet as far as physical features, CPU power, and the whole touchscreen thing (which at times is sweet for tapping to read an email but horrific to actually zoom into a page, scroll around, find the correct weblink, and tap it, for example...as well as trying to edit a few paragraphs of text)


I have my iPhone 4S and love it to death...but a PC killer? No way. Not even 5-10 years from now. We have an iPad 3...same feeling. Both devices are absolutely SWEET for grabbing emails, quick web surfing, a Youtube here and there, Facetime, and looking at some pix sent via email. Every other feature on the iOS devices is just fair...nothing that would make me throw out my PCs. We're not diehard PC users, but those 3-4 features I mentioned above that are sweet on the iPad/iPhone are just the tip of the iceberg on what I, my wife, and people who work in an office use a PC for. Stuff like making PPT or Word docs, PDF files, deep calendar/email integration, virtual machine stuff, holding webinars, running business-created thick client or web-client apps (not supported on iOS), doing video editing, Camtasia, etc...simply cannot be done on tablets...even if the CPU power were there, the touchscreen interface prevents usability.

Again...love my iPhone and iPad for a few great features (and we can afford these $500+ items) but they are simply not a PC killer or even close unless all you use your PC for is reading emails and watching Youtube.

[ericinboston]

Originally Posted by Asia8

I just feel that the reason for reduced sales is we most all already have one, not that we don't need/want one. One that does most of what we need.

Right...people don't just run out and buy a new computer every 1-2 years. Most PCs will last a good 4+ years. Hence, anyone who's bought a PC since 2008 really aren't needing to go plunk down $500+ for a new computer over the past year or so. It's quite possible the PC market will see a surge in a year or 2 when people need a replacement computer and the economy is better.

You're right in that PCs really don't do much more than what they did 5-10 years ago...which in a way is nice due to the backwards compatibility. But a big difference between a PC and a Tablet is that PC can be altered/expanded so much before/after the sale while a tablet is a disposable lighter...and I don't mean expanded simply as adding more RAM or bigger drive...I mean tons of USB ports that are universally supported all over the world, cd/dvd drives, standard hard drive styles, standard monitor outputs, etc. Tablets (today) just don't offer that widespread universal conformity.

[Unggoy Murderer]

Originally Posted by rmwebs

Yeah damn them for catering for different markets across different countries with different amounts of cash to spend. Those bastards how dare they.

You know (and this may come as a shock to you) its actually possible to support Apple whilst still accepting that their competition are clearly doing something right.

Or, what I was intending to communicate: Samsung have about 20 versions of each product. It's easy for them to say "we have 20% of the market" vs Apple's 12% or whatever, because they have about, what, 100+ different smartphone models(?) against Apple's 9.

The only reason Samsung are doing something right, (this might shock you) is because Apple did it first. The South Koreans are imitative, not innovative. It's in their culture, and it's accepted. Unfortunately, it's not accepted in all cultures, and sometimes copying goes to far.

[nagromme]

Originally Posted by ericinboston

Right...people don't just run out and buy a new computer every 1-2 years. Most PCs will last a good 4+ years. Hence, anyone who's bought a PC since 2008 really aren't needing to go plunk down $500+ for a new computer over the past year or so. It's quite possible the PC market will see a surge in a year or 2 when people need a replacement computer and the economy is better.

iPads last 4 years too I'm sure--and do everything they originally did, plus more.

But if you think the downturn is because PC's last long--did they last less long before the downturn? (I honestly don't know, but it feels like the reverse, almost: PCs being ever more cheap and unreliable in recent years as prices have raced down?)

Originally Posted by ericinboston

You're right in that PCs really don't do much more than what they did 5-10 years ago...which in a way is nice due to the backwards compatibility. But a big difference between a PC and a Tablet is that PC can be altered/expanded so much before/after the sale while a tablet is a disposable lighter...and I don't mean expanded simply as adding more RAM or bigger drive...I mean tons of USB ports that are universally supported all over the world, cd/dvd drives, standard hard drive styles, standard monitor outputs, etc. Tablets (today) just don't offer that widespread universal conformity.

I don't think expansion adds to the average PC's life as widely as you think:

* Very few people (for personal use, not IT) bother with internal expansion. (Techies like us are not most of the market.) Especially with ever-smaller laptops being the growing choice. (The one internal life-extender you CAN do with an iPad: battery replacement. Or rather, Apple will do it, but the labor is free. iPads have so much spare battery life that this isn't likely to be done much, but the option is there. I bet more old iPads in a couple years will end up as kids' machines that run for 45 minutes, or permanently installed on a desk or in a car or hooked to a stereo, somewhere with power, for video, music and messaging.)

* Tablets are externally expandable, both via adapters and the modern way: wireless. What devices do you think people need to plug into a tablet to make it last as long as a PC? I've never known anyone to replace an iPad in order to connect something new. For storage, yes--sometimes. I'm the only one I know who has run out of iOS storage. (But the same goes for most people with PC: they could expand it, but they don't.)

* A computer is only worth what it DOES. The list of ports and specs is useless in and of itself. An iPad is FAR more expandable than a PC, in actual practice, in terms of what it DOES. Because of app availability. Most people I know with PCs don't add software much, and so their PC doesn't perform new tasks. People with iPads (see my story above) are constantly adding new apps to do new things: it's easy and SECURE to do so. So their iPad is more expandable than their PC ever was. (This isn't just my annecdote. Two years ago, the average iOS device had downloaded 60 apps. Not all of them kept and used, of course. But do you think the average PC--average, not techies like us--has 60 apps people have intentionally installed?) Now, you can say PCs are equally expandable in theory because software is available, some of it free. True. In theory. Not in practice.

All the complexity you talk about regarding PCs (ports, connectors, internal upgrades) are really a sign of the PC category's weakness, not it's strength. Simplicity and ease of use are worth MORE than all that complexity. The buying public LOVE that this simplicity often lets them do MORE with an iPad than they could with a PC. Strange (to us) but true.

It hurts us techies to hear that--same way it hurts a car-modder to see easy engine mods get harder to make. But we're a minority. The bigger-selling future is not custom-modded car engines, nor custom-modded PCs.

Originally Posted by Unggoy Murderer

The South Koreans are imitative, not innovative. It's in their culture, and it's accepted. Unfortunately, it's not accepted in all cultures, and sometimes copying goes to far.

Samsung has done some shockingly blatant imitation, but tying it to race or culture on a broader level is going too far.

[TMar]

There is no "post PC era" and Steve was an idiot for saying it. The 'PC boom' happened because there was a driving force for PC sales, the internet. This is no longer the case as computing power has grown, there is nothing pushing new PC sales. As soon as mobile computing power increases to a point where ~90% of the population isn't seeing any benefit from the increase then you will see the bottom fall out of tablet sales too.

[rmwebs]

Originally Posted by samcraig

Web traffic doesn't tell the full story now does it.

Many people buy tablets to just read and/or play games. Games that don't necc need the internet. They also use them to work on documents. Again - not necc requiring internet.

I've never understood why so much "weight" is put into internet usage as "proof point" that people don't use their android devices and/or they use Apple devices more.

Keep to the facts. People access the internet more on Apple devices than Android (for example). That does not equate to whether or not they use their device more or less than the other.

yup very true.

I use my ipad for browsing regularly. Hardly ever use the nexus for it however as I really only have it for the odd android-only app, and development. The browser still isnt quite up to par (imo) with chrome on iOS.

[swagi]

Originally Posted by rmwebs

yup very true.

I use my ipad for browsing regularly. Hardly ever use the nexus for it however as I really only have it for the odd android-only app, and development. The browser still isnt quite up to par (imo) with chrome on iOS.

Now that is funny. You say Chrome offers the best browsing experience on iOS?!? A Google browser is the best thing on iOS?!?

Care to explain why you don't replace that stock android browser with Chrome or Firefox on the Nexus?

Yes - you should've done that about two years ago. At least give Dolphin or Opera a shot, as they are both pretty good browsers.

Seriously - sometimes I think MR pays people to post stuff like this. Absolutely priceless...

[Renzatic]

Originally Posted by swagi

Seriously - sometimes I think MR pays people to post stuff like this. Absolutely priceless...

Pay people? Seriously? Comeon, man. That's crazy talk. You should know as well as I do that MR doesn't pay anyone to post here.

...I mean have you seen a paycheck yet? I haven't. It's always "oh, we sent it out yesterday. It should arrive tomorrow". Yeah. Like I haven't heard that a thousand times before.

Pay? My ass they pay. Apparently I've been doing this job out of the kindness of my heart these last two years.

[rmwebs]

Originally Posted by swagi

Now that is funny. You say Chrome offers the best browsing experience on iOS?!? A Google browser is the best thing on iOS?!?

Care to explain why you don't replace that stock android browser with Chrome or Firefox on the Nexus?

Yes - you should've done that about two years ago. At least give Dolphin or Opera a shot, as they are both pretty good browsers.

Seriously - sometimes I think MR pays people to post stuff like this. Absolutely priceless...

As it stands, I prefer android over current iOS - I'm not some blind fanboy. I use iOS and Android daily.

I just personally find that browsing on the ipad version of chrome is the 'sweet spot' I've used a few different browsers on Android and yes, most are perfectly fine, its just out of the two I (again, personally) preferred the iOS version of chrome.

Sorry if that is in violation of your rules. Next time dont be a tool and assume someone is claiming preference as fact.

[swagi]

Originally Posted by rmwebs

As it stands, I prefer android over current iOS - I'm not some blind fanboy. I use iOS and Android daily.

I just personally find that browsing on the ipad version of chrome is the 'sweet spot' I've used a few different browsers on Android and yes, most are perfectly fine, its just out of the two I (again, personally) preferred the iOS version of chrome.

Sorry if that is in violation of your rules. Next time dont be a tool and assume someone is claiming preference as fact.

Sorry if I came over rude...but as a matter of fact I'm quite estranged by the fact that you prefer iOS Chrome over Android Chrome, because I think they are quite the same. That's all.

And you have to admit it sounds weird, doesn't it?

[samcraig]

Originally Posted by Renzatic

Pay people? Seriously? Comeon, man. That's crazy talk. You should know as well as I do that MR doesn't pay anyone to post here.

...I mean have you seen a paycheck yet? I haven't. It's always "oh, we sent it out yesterday. It should arrive tomorrow". Yeah. Like I haven't heard that a thousand times before.

Pay? My ass they pay. Apparently I've been doing this job out of the kindness of my heart these last two years.

I have always wondered why I haven't seen you at the annual hot pocket party. Clearly your evite gets lost in the ether.

[Renzatic]

Originally Posted by samcraig

I have always wondered why I haven't seen you at the annual hot pocket party. Clearly your evite gets lost in the ether.

I think it's because everyone is getting wise to me playing both sides against each other.

Don't let anyone ever tell you being a tech forum triple agent is an easy thing to do. Specially when no one pays you for all the hard work you put in.

[devilstrider]

Originally Posted by Amazing Iceman

Well, they are selling tons of cheap phones mainly to be used to Twit, post to Facebook or send Text Messages. That's what most kids do anyway; no need for a higher end device.

And they have multiple carrier options, not like iPhone stuck primarily to AT&T with a bleeding plan.

Wow the iphone is on the top three major carrier in the U.S.

[AppleScruff1]

Originally Posted by Renzatic

I think it's because everyone is getting wise to me playing both sides against each other.

Don't let anyone ever tell you being a tech forum triple agent is an easy thing to do. Specially when no one pays you for all the hard work you put in.

You mean you go three ways?

[Renzatic]

You know I do. You were there for the incident with Sheila The Donkey.

Hell, man. You were filming it.

[samcraig]

Originally Posted by Renzatic

You know I do. You were there for the incident with Sheila The Donkey.

Hell, man. You were filming it.

Was he using a windows, android or iPhone device to film it? Or all three?

[Renzatic]

Originally Posted by samcraig

Was he using a windows, android or iPhone device to film it? Or all three?

It was a Blackberry duct taped to an old VHS camcorder.

...at least I think it was duct tape.

[samcraig]

Originally Posted by Renzatic

It was a Blackberry duct taped to an old VHS camcorder.

...at least I think it was duct tape.

A blackberry? He might as well have been using this!

[Renzatic]

Originally Posted by samcraig

A blackberry? He might as well have been using this!

I think he was using an old BB Storm, so that probably would've been an improvement.

Also, I'm sensing another moderator reminder coming up. Dunno why. I guess I've seen so many by this point I can feel it my bones now.

[Amazing Iceman]

Originally Posted by devilstrider

Wow the iphone is on the top three major carrier in the U.S.

CDMA Carriers don't count for me.

[AppleScruff1]

Originally Posted by Renzatic

Also, I'm sensing another moderator reminder coming up. Dunno why. I guess I've seen so many by this point I can feel it my bones now.

Have you been misbehaving again? If you work hard at it, you can become a well respected, well liked, highly regarded, model of good behavior, member of the community. I can give you a few pointers.

[G51989]

Originally Posted by nagromme

iPads last 4 years too I'm sure--and do everything they originally did, plus more.

They might last 4 years, Apple won't allow them to run new apps however.

But if you think the downturn is because PC's last long--did they last less long before the downturn? (I honestly don't know, but it feels like the reverse, almost: PCs being ever more cheap and unreliable in recent years as prices have raced down?)

PC's can last 10 years, I know people still on XP boxes, there is a good chance the PC market will surge in a few years as people finally want to upgrade from Windows XP. Tablets and phones last 2-4, tops. They also cannot be reapired, PCs can. And most PCs these days are very reliable, so if you blow 700 dollars on a mid range PC, your assured 10 years of service.

I don't think expansion adds to the average PC's life as widely as you think:

For the people who know how to use them, they do matter. I'd love to see an iPad with USB 3 ports...or any ports....

* Very few people (for personal use, not IT) bother with internal expansion. (Techies like us are not most of the market.)

Gamers, IT managers, power users, people with high hardware requirments, business who wants to upgrade their machines to make them last longer, even a basic home user who might want to add something to his machine, the market is bigger than you think.

Especially with ever-smaller laptops being the growing choice. (The one internal life-extender you CAN do with an iPad: battery replacement. Or rather, Apple will do it, but the labor is free. iPads have so much spare battery life that this isn't likely to be done much, but the option is there. I bet more old iPads in a couple years will end up as kids' machines that run for 45 minutes, or permanently installed on a desk or in a car or hooked to a stereo, somewhere with power, for video, music and messaging.)

iPads will cost lots of money to keep going over the years, and they probably won't be installed in anything as they age, Apple will say " your **** is to old, upgrade! Innovation! " and it will be a useless brick. A 10 year old PC can still run Windows 8.

* Tablets are externally expandable, both via adapters and the modern way: wireless. What devices do you think people need to plug into a tablet to make it last as long as a PC? I've never known anyone to replace an iPad in order to connect something new. For storage, yes--sometimes. I'm the only one I know who has run out of iOS storage. (But the same goes for most people with PC: they could expand it, but they don't.)

Tablets are expandable? Really? your way of thinking doesn't work, RAM, Processor, video processor, screen, ect cannot be upgraded, so once they can't handle new programs, they go into the trash.

* A computer is only worth what it DOES. The list of ports and specs is useless in and of itself. An iPad is FAR more expandable than a PC, in actual practice, in terms of what it DOES.

A PC can do FAR more than an Ipad can.

Because of app availability.

You realize, there are MILLIONS of programs written for Windows based PCs, they outnumber iOS and android apps on a scale of almost 20 to 1. On a Windows PC, you have millions upon millions of software programs spanning 3 decades that you can choose from, on iOS, you have whatever Apple says your allowed to have.

People with iPads (see my story above) are constantly adding new apps to do new things: it's easy and SECURE to do so.

So your saying people who buy PC's never install any new programs? Wow. And Modren Windows 7 and 8 PCs are very secure machines, as are Macs.

So their iPad is more expandable than their PC ever was.

No, an iPad is not expandable, at all.

(This isn't just my annecdote.

yes it is.

wo years ago, the average iOS device had downloaded 60 apps.

Yes, the vast majority of iOS apps are free or 5 dollar garbage.

But do you think the average PC--average, not techies like us--has 60 apps people have intentionally installed?

Probably not, but you never know. Most Apps on an iPad go for under 5 dollars, easy to make that choice, real software tends to go for more, but lots of people install tons of apps on their PCs.

Now, you can say PCs are equally expandable in theory because software is available, some of it free. True. In theory. Not in practice.

No your wrong, there are far more programs available for Windows based PCs than there are for iPads and Android tablets. You think 500,000 is some kind of impressive number? Try millions upon millions of programs for Windows and OSX based machines ( install bootcamp on your Mac people! I did, worth it ).

All the complexity you talk about regarding PCs (ports, connectors, internal upgrades) are really a sign of the PC category's weakness, not it's strength.

See, people who do, REAL work. Want power, ports, expansion, and the abilty to upgrade. If you want to play Angry birds at Starbucks, go for your Ipads ( I have one to )

Simplicity and ease of use are worth MORE than all that complexity. The buying public LOVE that this simplicity often lets them do MORE with an iPad than they could with a PC. Strange (to us) but true.

Yes, the simplcity is a good thing for your average best buy shopper, but for anyone who wants to do real work, no ports, no power, and a closed garden, won't cut it. Sorry to bust your little bubble.

It hurts us techies to hear that--same way it hurts a car-modder to see easy engine mods get harder to make. But we're a minority. The bigger-selling future is not custom-modded car engines, nor custom-modded PCs.

Custom modded gamer PC's won't die, its a multi tens of billions of dollar a year industry, PC gaming that is. Won't go away for years, sorry buddy.

And custom modded car engines won't go away either ;P

If I can find a tablet with awesome battery life, that can do everything I do at work, and everything I do at home, quickly, flawessly, and be long lasting, I'll buy it tommarow.

[TMar]

Originally Posted by G51989

Custom modded gamer PC's won't die, its a multi tens of billions of dollar a year industry, PC gaming that is. Won't go away for years, sorry buddy.

And custom modded car engines won't go away either ;P

Not with Intel wanting to move away from sockets. You can't look at sales and say "its a multi billions of dollar a year industry" like that is all profit. Profit margins on PC hardware isn't very big at all and with the center of most of these builds wanting to take their ball and go home it doesn't look good.

[devilstrider]

Originally Posted by Amazing Iceman

CDMA Carriers don't count for me.

Yeah... Right...

[Renzatic]

Originally Posted by TMar

Not with Intel wanting to move away from sockets. You can't look at sales and say "its a multi billions of dollar a year industry" like that is all profit. Profit margins on PC hardware isn't very big at all and with the center of most of these builds wanting to take their ball and go home it doesn't look good.

Eh. Not necessarily. Intel welding the chips into the sockets isn't a sign that the entire DIY PC scene is dying. All it means is you'll have to replace the whole motherboard if you want to upgrade CPUs.

Yeah. It'll be a giant pain in the ass, but still. I'm sure we'll be able to buy new graphics cards and ram upgrades for our computers for at least another decade.